@ucbalumnus Definitely high reach. Around 2,000 are finalists, narrowed down to 200ish. And it’s not always the people with the best raw stats - there’s a bunch of stuff that goes into how they are awarded (totality of the application, an interview, etc.).
OP needs to apply to a range of schools, especially those that are generous with financial aid to OOS/international. State schools (specifically CA) cannot be counted on to offer that.