DS (junior) first pass at college list - feedback?

After a bit of nagging, DS (NC resident) has come up with the following initial list of colleges (currently a junior) he wants to look into and potentially apply to next year:

Matches/Safety - UNC/NCSU/Alabama/U South Carolina/University of Florida
Reaches - Ga Tech, MIT, Caltech, Vanderbilt, Rice, Stanford, Harvard, Duke, Carnegie Mellon, Harvey Mudd

We got him to include USC as we have read great things about their Honors College and Alabama/UF have great merit if he gets NMF. He is not sure if he will apply to Huntsville or Tuscaloosa, or both.

Stats:
SAT 1550 (CM=800) one sitting, hopefully will have to retake to confirm for NMF?
AP Calc BC/AP CS A/AP Chem/AP Phys 1/ AP WH - All 5s.
SAT Subj - Math II/Chem 800’s; Phys 780.
AIME 10 ; USACO Silver (prob Gold this year), hopefully USAPhO qualifier this year, as he was close to making it last year…
Asian/White Male in a very competitive HS and he will probably want to major in Math or CS.
All A’s so far, except for a B in AP CS A in 9th grade as he did not submit a final project as “it was not interesting…” seems to have been a great lesson for him, shame it did not happen a year earlier.
Varsity Sport that he has played since elementary school, above avg, not a recruitable athlete.
Will graduate HS with high course rigor, including Multivariable, Linear Algebra, Intro to Proofs, Diff EQ, AP Phys C, Spanish Advanced, C, etc. School’s weighting of classes will not reflect course rigor though, hopefully AOs will notice. No rank will be provided.
Community Service - 100 hours but nothing significant.
Leadership - captain of sport in JV, (perhaps captain senior year) started a small club, active in various STEM clubs, probable he will be the president of a STEM club senior year.
ECs - sport, math/computer programming contests, NSLIY summer abroad, research projects in math and computer science.
Essays - good writer, not great.
He should get very good recommendations, hopefully including one from a college professor that he has worked with on several small research projects to date.

We would like him to eventually reduce the list to 10 colleges or less and we would love to get any merit funds but realize they are limited unless he gets them through NMF. At this stage, I would lean towards him attending the Uni’s with a per year price of around $30K or less, but can pay if he gets into a high reach school like Caltech/MIT/Mudd as these are the one’s he would really like to attend but he is quite realistic on his slim chances. Math seems to be his main area of interest but I see him moving more to CS, although he also really likes Physics and Chemistry. Selecting a major will be a huge effort for him as he is pretty decent at most subjects and likes them all. His current favorite class is US History and he loved World History last year.

Do we really need to visit campuses before he is admitted? He will visit UNC/NCSU and Duke and has spent a fair bit of time at several colleges during past summer camps so has experienced small, medium and large campuses. He does not really have a preference re size, weather, food, etc. I think he would do best if he is at a medium-sized school but should be fine at any size or location. He likes to play sports but not really into watching them and I do not think he will be in a fraternity. He seems to prefer “academic” friends. Is the Fiske book that is often referenced the best resource to identify more about the individual schools, the types of kids that do well there and what these schools are looking for?

Any significant benefit to applying early to MIT, etc? Any schools he should add/drop? Due to the quality and cost of UNC/NCSU for instate they are my favorites although it would be great for him to get exposed to a different location in the US for college if the cost is reasonably comparable. I feel like his list is a good start but cannot help feel like there are too many high reaches. Perhaps he needs some other colleges that he has a reasonably good chance to get into and fewer that he has very little chance?

Sorry if this rambled too much and thanks for any direction you can give, we are just finally getting him to start the process. Up til now, he has not really focused on college as he was quite busy and enjoying his time in high school. I am hoping we can get him a little more into it over the next month or two. I think he feels his chances at the reaches are so small that he does not want to get his hopes up and feels he has a good shot at the matches.

Run the NPC calculators for each school on your list to see if they are affordable for your family. Some of the reach schools offer no merit money and those that do, have very limited amounts of competitive merit. That might process might help you cull your list. Don’t have your S apply to schools you can’t afford.

I don’t think they’re too reachey. All you need is one solid safety. And, yes: Fiske comes highly recommended in terms of a book with actual content rather than a lot of weights and measures.

@momofsenior1 Thanks for your reply. We can pay for all of the colleges he will apply to but at the same time would love to keep the costs as low as we can in case grad school is needed. If it came down to UNC at $30 vs full pay @ Caltech we would go with Caltech. For example, if the choice were to be UNC vs University of Florida at full pay then we would expect him to go to UNC.

@circuitrider Thanks, we will get the book and start trying to determine if any schools seem to fit him better than others.

Rice may be worth the visit before applying, if at all possible. It seems big on demonstrated interest.

Excellent profile and achievement, but - as I am sure you know - your DS is in the toughest STEM demographic.

Both Rice and Vanderbilt seem solid choices, and I bet if he is willing to ED at either (or ED2 at Vanderbilt) he will get in.

With a 10 on AIME prior to junior year, he is right on the cusp of USAMO qualification. With a little work, he could do it junior year, and that could make a difference at MIT.

NSLI-Y is a great achievement. What are his summer plans after junior year? His profile would have a shot at SSP. Check out the schools attended by recent SSP graduates here: https://summerscience.org/about/the-universal-times-newsletter/. Each of the pdfs by year lists the college destinations of the prior year’s SSP class.

Not on your current list, but Yale SCEA would likely be an easier admit for a STEM candidate than Harvard or Princeton (also not on your list). Yale is making a push to get better math students in particular; USAMO qualification might mean more there than anywhere else. Strong in chemistry too.

Good luck!

If you are focused on value for money then for a full pay ORM student with very strong academics it’s at least worth taking a look at what Oxford has to offer (either math or math+CS, though the latter is more expensive) because the total cost will be only about $150K-$170K for 3 years and admission is much more predictable than equivalent US colleges (USAMO qualification would make admission quite probable, assuming a decent interview performance).

If you are full pay and he is a likely NMSF, you may want to add the real USC (Southern Cal). The have a half tuition scholarship for NMF. If you don’t get into the high end of the reaches, USC + 100k vs Vandy could be an interesting choice. However, if you are really looking for a net price around $30k, you could take out some of the schools that have big merit but it is very competitive (Vandy, etc).

@dropbox77177 He will struggle to make USAMO. He typically does much better on the AIME than the AMC10/12. He barely qualified for AIME last year and did not qualify the year before. I had him take the AIME’s at home the year he did not qualify after they were published and he scored 9 and 10 on them. His math knowledge is strong but the time crunch of the AMC tends to have him make too many careless errors. Princeton probably should be on his list. I will have him look at it a bit more. Vanderbilt is an easy drive so we were thinking of visiting. I thought I read previously that Yale was not as strong in CS? I will follow up for sure.

Too early to say on summer - at this stage I would bet he will be working on a research project. I am not familiar with SSP but will see what I can find about it. Thanks so much!

@GnocchiB thanks for the info. Exactly what we need to know. We can go wherever it can make a difference but really do not want to fly all over the country just to look at the campus unless he is a legitimate shot at being accepted.

@Twoin18 and @Eeyore123 thanks - definitely things to consider!!

I am so glad I posted! Good information for him.

Hi there, your son sounds somewhat similar to mine, who is a senior this year. He is applying to many of the above schools. We did drive from NoCa to NH last summer. I’d be happy to share more off line if you’d like to contact me. Would love to share any impressions/answer questions.