<p>tophe,
I rarely reply to any of the “chances?” posts because I have very little personal insight into the thinking of Adcoms. For what its worth, I would think they’d be crazy not to offer you a spot in the class of 2010, but that’s not the point of my note.</p>
<p>You mentioned that you are a recruited track and xc athlete. That fact gives you a special contact at Williams not available to the average academic wiz. Use it. Continue your contacts with the coaches and working on getting yourself recruited. Have meaningful discussions with them about your chances and what they can do to help. They should be able to tell you if they will give you a tip or at least meaningfully support your application. If so, you should have no problem getting in. If they don’t have a tip for you, they should still be able to give you their opinion of your chances (no guarantees on this though). In any event, regular contact with the coaches shouldn’t hurt and could definitely help. Good luck.</p>