<p>Yes, driver’s comments are a rallying cry for all us folks who want to see sanity, honesty and fiscal integrity return to our government. </p>
<p>Kick the republicans out. </p>
<p>Don’t forget to vote. Your vote does count. There will be a lot of tight races as the Rove machine goes into action.</p>
<hr>
<p>There, driver.</p>
<p>Well, I’ll post my final picks in a bit.</p>
<p>I’m picking D +9 for Governors (could be as low as +7), +6 for Senate (could be as low as +4), and +46 for House, said picks including 8 upsets plus some marginal picks of which 6 are probably wrong but I don’t know which 6, so call it +32 for the House, race-by-race picks not withstanding.</p>
<p>Sanguinity rules, TD.</p>
<p>Chris Matthews is trying really hard, but he doesn’t look very happy. :eek: (He’s a genius at this stuff you know–worked for Tip O’Neill ;)).</p>
<p>The range of my final predictions is as possible: </p>
<p>Governor: 7-9 Democratic pick-ups
Senate: 4-6 Democratic pick-ups
House: 30-45 pick-ups</p>
<p>My race-by-race picks aggregate to the high end of the range in each case. The House is the most fluid and I include seven picks that are upsets in light of last available polling. All the other picks are “reasonable” but it may be a stretch to conclude that as many close races tip in the Democratic direction as I’ve suggested.</p>
<p>See specific notes at the end. Picks represent predicted winners in designated race.</p>
<ul>
<li>= incumbent
</ul>
<p>If I had it to do over again, I’d add the KS-02 and NE-03 to the predictions but this is out to too many people.</p>
<p>Governors Races (36) </p>
<p>State Name Party </p>
<p>1 AK Knowles D<br>
4 AL Riley* R<br>
5 AR Beebe D<br>
7 AZ Napolitano* D<br>
10 CA Schwarzenegger* R<br>
12 CO Beauprez# R<br>
14 CT Rell* R<br>
16 FL Crist# R<br>
18 GA Perdue* R<br>
20 HI Lingle* R<br>
21 IA Culver# D<br>
24 ID Otter* R<br>
25 IL Blagojevich* D
27 KS Sebelius* D<br>
28 KS Barnett R<br>
29 MA Patrick D<br>
31 MD O’Malley D<br>
33 ME Baldacci* D<br>
35 MI Granholm* D<br>
37 MN Hatch D
40 NE Heineman* R
41 NH Lynch* D
43 NM Richardson* D
45 NV Titus D
47 NY Spitzer D
49 OH Strickland D
51 OK Henry* D
53 OR Kulongoski* D
55 PA Rendell* D
58 RI Carcieri* R
60 SC Sanford* R
62 SD Rounds* R
63 TN Bredesen* D
66 TX Perry* R
70 VT Douglas* R
71 WI Doyle* D
73 WY Freudenthal* D</p>
<p>U.S. Senate Races (33) </p>
<p>76 AZ Kyl* R
77 CA Feinstein* D
81 CT Lieberman* I
83 DE Carper* D
85 FL Bill Nelson* D
87 HI Akaka* D
90 IN Lugar* R
91 MA Kennedy* D
93 MD Cardin# D
96 ME Snowe* R
97 MI Stabenow* D
99 MN Klobuchar# D
101 MO McCaskill D
104 MS Lott* R
105 MT Tester D
107 ND Conrad* D
109 NE Ben Nelson* D
111 NJ Menendez* D
113 NM Bingaman* D
116 NV Ensign* R
117 NY Clinton* D
119 OH Brown D
121 PA Casey D
123 RI Whitehouse D
126 TN Corker# R
128 TX Hutchison* R
130 UT Hatch* R
132 VA Allen* R
134 VT Sanders# I
135 WA Cantwell* D
137 WI Kohl* D
139 WV Byrd* D
142 WY Thomas* R</p>
<p>U.S. House Races (89) </p>
<p>144 AZ 01 Renzi* R
145 AZ 05 Mitchell D
147 AZ 08 Giffords D
150 CA 04 Doolittle* R
151 CA 11 McNerney D
154 CA 50 Bilbray* R
155 CO 03 Salazar* D
157 CO 04 Pacione D
160 CO 05 Lamborn# R
162 CO 06 Tancredo* R
163 CO 07 Perlmutter D
165 CT 02 Courtney D
167 CT 04 Farrell D
169 CT 05 Murphy D
172 FL 08 Keller* R
174 FL 09 Bilirakis* R
175 FL 13 Jennings D
177 FL 16 Mahoney D
179 FL 22 Klein D
181 GA 08 Marshall* D
183 GA 12 Barrow* D
185 HI-02 Hirono# D
189 IA 01 Braley D
192 IA 02 Leach* R
193 IA 03 Boswell* D
195 ID 01 Grant D
197 IL 06 Duckworth D
199 IL 08 Bean* D
202 IL 10 Kirk* R
204 IL 11 Weller* R
205 IL 17 Hare# D
207 IN 02 Donnelly D
210 IN 03 Souder* R
211 IN 08 Ellsworth D
213 IN 09 Hill D
215 KS 03 Moore* D
218 KY 02 Lewis* R
219 KY 03 Yarmuth D
221 KY 04 Lucas D
224 LA 02 Carter D
227 LA 03 Melancon* D
230 MI 09 Knollenberg* R
231 MN 01 Walz D
233 MN 06 Wetterling# D
235 NC 08 Kissell D
237 NC 11 Shuler D
239 ND AL Pomeroy*
242 NE 01 Fortenberry* R
244 NH 01 Bradley* R
245 NH 02 Hodes D
248 NJ 07 Ferguson* R
249 NM 01 Madrid D
250 NM 01 Wilson* R
252 NV 02 Heller# R
253 NV 03 Hafen D
256 NY 03 King* R
258 NY 19 Kelly* R
259 NY 20 Gillibrand D
261 NY 24 Acuri D
263 NY 25 Muffei D
266 NY 26 Reynolds* R
267 NY 29 Massa D
269 OH 01 Cranley D
271 OH 02 Wulsin D
273 OH 06 Wilson# D
276 OH 12 Tiberi* R
277 OH 13 Sutton# D
279 OH 15 Kilroy D
281 OH 18 Space D
283 OR 05 Hooley* D
285 PA 04 Altmire D
287 PA 06 Murphy D
289 PA 07 Sestak D
291 PA 08 Murphy D
293 PA 10 Carney D
295 SC 05 Spratt* D
297 SD AL Herseth* D
299 TX 17 Edwards* D
301 TX 22 Lampson D
305 TX 23 Bonilla* R
307 UT 02 Matheson* D
309 VA 02 Kellam D
312 VA 10 Wolf* R
313 VT AL Welch D
315 WA 02 Larsen* D
318 WA 05 McMorris* R
319 WA 08 Burner D
321 WI 08 Kagen D
323 WV 01 Mollohan* D
325 WY AL Trauner D</p>
<p>TIE-BREAKER: Total # of House seats gained by Democrats: 34</p>
<p>Governors: I think Palin (AK) has been stagnating in the polls and that Knowles may pull a surprise here. I think Gibbons (NV) would be dead meat if the Democrats had nominated their more moderate candidate but as it is I think the drip-drip-drip of scandal may be just enough to do Gibbons in. I think the other seven Democratic pick-ups are solid.</p>
<p>Senate: I wish my wife could go back to St. Louis to vote, that’s how close I think Missouri is. I think the “Show Me” state is Ground Zero for control of the Senate, with the Democrats winning Virgina but losing Tennessee on Corker’s racist appeals. McCaskill by the proverbial whisker in Missouri, Webb by a larger margin in Virginia as Allen manages to self-destruct from the status of leading presidential contender for '08 to wondering what to do next.</p>
<p>House:</p>
<p>My seven toughest races to call: ID-01, IL-10, MN-06, NV-03, OH-01, OH-02, VA-02</p>
<p>My seven upsets: CO-04, CO-05, MN-01, NC-08, NY-25, NY-29, PA-04</p>
<p>I think the swamped vote at the top of the ticket hurts NY Republicans more than most people are calculating. Likewise, I think there may be a small but noticeable drop-off in Republican vote in the West if early returns out of the East are disheartening.</p>
<h1>#</h1>
<p>Targets acquired.</p>
<p>Warheads fuzed.</p>
<p>Antimissile defenses up…</p>
<p>No, MassDad, these are our birds that are in the air. It’s not a precise time-on-target operation but the detonations will start in about 10 minutes and continue over the next 10-12 hours.</p>
<p>I’ll be posting periodic update summaries here, giving a good overview.</p>
<p>Governors</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Republican pick-ups:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. Senate</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Republican pick-ups:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. House of Representatives</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Republican pick-ups:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<h1>28. Absolutely, We’re winning.</h1>
<p>Another W’s fallacy: The attacker can throw up more missles and decoys than the defender has antimissles, technology and resources. It only takes one missle to cause devastation and death. It is also the reason for the WMD theory. It is the one of the reasons why the Soviet Union collapsed. </p>
<p>The simpliest and most effective defense is the most obvious defense. Also the least expensive.</p>
<p>Yarmuth (D) over Northrup (R) 51-48 in the KY-03 with 15 percent counted.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>I think you’re likely to be wrong on PA-04.</p></li>
<li><p>You’re pretty likely to be wrong on PA-08, too.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Yarmuth over Northrup holding at 51-48 with 37 percent of the vote in.</p>
<p>====</p>
<p>Governors</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds:
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. Senate</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds: Vermont
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds: Indiana
Net gain: 0</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. House of Representatives</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds:
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>Northrup over Yarmuth holding at 49.6 to 49.3 with 53 percent of the vote in.</p>
<p>====</p>
<p>Governors</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds:
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. Senate</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds: Vermont
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds: Indiana
Net gain: 0</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. House of Representatives</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds:
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>Bernie won!</p>
<p>
And in other important news, where do we predict who will move forward on Dancing with the Stars?<br>
<em>just trying to pass the time until TD has real news to report</em></p>
<p>Northrup over Yarmuth holding at 49.6 to 49.3 with 53 percent of the vote in.</p>
<p>====</p>
<p>Governors</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds:
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. Senate</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds: Vermont
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds: Indiana
Net gain: 0</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. House of Representatives</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds:
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>Yarmuth over Northrup holding at 50-48 with 78 percent of the vote in.
Indiana 8th looking extremely good, IN 09 and KY 02 surprisingly competetive.
Webb by a narrow edge over Allen with 23 percent.</p>
<p>====</p>
<p>Governors</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups: Ohio
Democratic holds: New Hampshire
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds:
Net gain: +1 Dem</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. Senate</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds: Vermont, West Virginia, Florida, Massachusetts
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds: Indiana, Maine
Net gain: 0</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>U.S. House of Representatives</p>
<p>Democratic pick-ups:
Democratic holds:
Republican pick-ups:
Republican holds:
Net gain:</p>
<p>Comments:</p>
<p>I am watching the Ohio election very closely to see if the republicans can manipulate the voting machines again to elect their candidate.</p>
<p>Here are mine:</p>
<p>House: D 236 - R 199</p>
<p>Senate: D 51 - R 49</p>
<p>Governors: D 29 - R 21</p>