Election Scorecard & Prediction Contest

Parent Cafe
1

<p>Election Scorecard & Prediction Contest</p>

<p>Well now that we’re a month out from election day, I’ve put together an election scorecard of the 36 Governors races, all 33 Senate races, and 90 of the most likely House races. </p>

<p>I’ve aleady been using a printout to note polling results, etc.</p>

<p>Aside from a tracking device, I’ve decided to use it as an elections predictions contest.</p>

<p>To participate in the contest, cut-and-paste the full list of entries below and then go through and delete all but one line for each contest. Then post the resulting choices. NOTE: the contest is divided into two parts as the entire post is too long for CC. But please paste your results from both initial posts into a single post…it will fit.</p>

<p>Deadline for participating in the contest is a post by 3:01am EST on 11/7/06. I’ll run the contest both for CC separately and an overall contest that includes a couple of other sources.</p>

<p>If your favorite dark horse House race isn’t included, I apologize…90 seemed like a reasonable number but recent post-Foley changes have probably put some districts up for discussion that I haven’t included.</p>

<p>Prize: Winner gets 1000 ITY’s (I Told You So’s) good on any Internet discussion board or blog.</p>

<p>==</p>

<p>2006 Election Prediction Contest </p>

<ul>
<li>= Incumbent # = open seat, candidate of incumbent’s party<br>
D = Democrat R = Republican I = Independent<br>
AL = at-large<br></li>
</ul>

<p>Note #1: the VT AL House seat was formerly held by an Independent who caucuses with Democrats. </p>

<p>Note #2: the LA-02 and TX-23 House races have special elections on November 7. If not candidate receives 50 percent of the vote + 1, a run-off between the top two finshers will take place in December. These races feature additional candidates besides those listed. </p>

<p>Note #3: in the FL-16, the Republican incumbent, Mark Foley, resigned from Congress due to a sex scandal. Folely has been replaced by Florida State Rep. Joe Negron as a candidate but under Florida law Foley’s name will remain on the ballot though votes received by Foley will go to Negron. </p>

<p>Governors Races (36) </p>

<p>State Name Party </p>

<p>1 AK Knowles D<br>
2 AK Palin# R </p>

<p>3 AL Baxley D<br>
4 AL Riley* R </p>

<p>5 AR Beebe D<br>
6 AR Hutchinson# R </p>

<p>7 AZ Napolitano* D<br>
8 AZ Munsil R </p>

<p>9 CA Angelides D<br>
10 CA Schwarzenegger* R </p>

<p>11 CO Ritter D<br>
12 CO Beauprez# R </p>

<p>13 CT DeStefano D<br>
14 CT Rell* R </p>

<p>15 FL Davis D<br>
16 FL Crist# R </p>

<p>17 GA Taylor D<br>
18 GA Perdue* R </p>

<p>19 HI Iwase D<br>
20 HI Lingle* R </p>

<p>21 IA Culver# D<br>
22 IA Nussle R </p>

<p>23 ID Brady D<br>
24 ID Otter* R </p>

<p>25 IL Blagojevich* D<br>
26 IL Topkina R </p>

<p>27 KS Sebelius* D<br>
28 KS Barnett R </p>

<p>29 MA Patrick D<br>
30 MA Healey# R </p>

<p>31 MD O’Malley D<br>
32 MD Ehrlich* R </p>

<p>33 ME Baldacci* D<br>
34 ME Woodcock R </p>

<p>35 MI Granholm* D<br>
36 MI DeVos R </p>

<p>37 MN Hatch D<br>
38 MN Pawlenty* R </p>

<p>39 NE Hahn D
40 NE Heineman* R</p>

<p>41 NH Lynch* D
42 NH Coburn R</p>

<p>43 NM Richardson* D
44 NM Dendahl R</p>

<p>45 NV Titus D
46 NV Gibbons# R</p>

<p>47 NY Spitzer D
48 NY Faso# R</p>

<p>49 OH Strickland D
50 OH Blackwell# R</p>

<p>51 OK Henry* D
52 OK Istook R</p>

<p>53 OR Kulongoski* D
54 OR Saxton R</p>

<p>55 PA Rendell* D
56 PA Swann R</p>

<p>57 RI Fogarty D
58 RI Carcieri* R</p>

<p>59 SC Moore D
60 SC Sanford* R</p>

<p>61 SD Billion D
62 SD Rounds* R</p>

<p>63 TN Bredesen* D
64 TN Bryson R</p>

<p>65 TX Bell D
66 TX Perry* R
67 TX Friedman I
68 TX Strayhorn I</p>

<p>69 VT Parker D
70 VT Douglas* R</p>

<p>71 WI Doyle* D
72 WI Green R</p>

<p>73 WY Freudenthal* D
74 WY Hunkins R</p>

<p>U.S. Senate Races (33) </p>

<p>75 AZ Pederson D
76 AZ Kyl* R</p>

<p>77 CA Feinstein* D
78 CA Mountjoy R</p>

<p>79 CT Lamont D
80 CT Schlesinger R
81 CT Lieberman* I</p>

<p>83 DE Carper* D
84 DE Ting R</p>

<p>85 FL Bill Nelson* D
86 FL Harris R</p>

<p>87 HI Akaka* D
88 HI Thielen R</p>

<p>89 IN Osborn I
90 IN Lugar* R</p>

<p>91 MA Kennedy* D
92 MA Chase R</p>

<p>93 MD Cardin# D
94 MD Steele R</p>

<p>95 ME Bright D
96 ME Snowe* R</p>

<p>97 MI Stabenow* D
98 MI Bouchard R</p>

<p>99 MN Klobuchar# D
100 MN Kennedy R</p>

<p>101 MO McCaskill D
102 MO Talent* R</p>

<p>103 MS Fleming D
104 MS Lott* R</p>

<p>105 MT Tester D
106 MT Burns* R</p>

<p>107 ND Conrad* D
108 ND Grotberg R</p>

<p>109 NE Ben Nelson* D
110 NE Ricketts R</p>

<p>111 NJ Menendez* D
112 NJ Kean, Jr. R</p>

<p>113 NM Bingaman* D
114 NM McCulloch R</p>

<p>115 NV Carter D
116 NV Ensign* R</p>

<p>117 NY Clinton* D
118 NY Spencer R</p>

<p>119 OH Brown D
120 OH DeWine* R</p>

<p>121 PA Casey D
122 PA Santorum* R</p>

<p>123 RI Whitehouse D
124 RI Chaffee* R</p>

<p>125 TN Ford D
126 TN Corker# R</p>

<p>127 TX Radnofsky D
128 TX Hutchison* R</p>

<p>129 UT Ashdown D
130 UT Hatch* R</p>

<p>131 VA Webb D
132 VA Allen* R</p>

<p>133 VT Tarrant R
134 VT Sanders# I</p>

<p>135 WA Cantwell* D
136 WA McGavick R</p>

<p>137 WI Kohl* D
138 WI Lorge R</p>

<p>139 WV Byrd* D
140 WV Raese R</p>

<p>141 WY Groutage D
142 WY Thomas* R</p>

2

<p>U.S. House Races (90) </p>

<p>143 AZ 01 Simon D
144 AZ 01 Renzi* R</p>

<p>145 AZ 05 Mitchell D
146 AZ 05 Hayworth* R</p>

<p>147 AZ 08 Giffords D
148 AZ 08 Graf# R</p>

<p>149 CA 04 Brown D
150 CA 04 Doolittle* R</p>

<p>151 CA 11 McNerney D
152 CA 11 Pombo* R</p>

<p>153 CA 50 Busby D
154 CA 50 Bilbray* R</p>

<p>155 CO 03 Salazar* D
156 CO 03 Tipton R</p>

<p>157 CO 04 Pacione D
158 CO 04 Musgrave* R</p>

<p>159 CO 05 Fawcett D
160 CO 05 Lamborn# R</p>

<p>161 CO 06 Winter D
162 CO 06 Tancredo* R</p>

<p>163 CO 07 Perlmutter D
164 CO 07 O’Donnell# R</p>

<p>165 CT 02 Courtney D
166 CT 02 Simmons* R</p>

<p>167 CT 04 Farrell D
168 CT 04 Shays* R</p>

<p>169 CT 05 Murphy D
170 CT 05 Johnson* R</p>

<p>171 FL 08 Stuart D
172 FL 08 Keller* R</p>

<p>173 FL 09 Busanksy D
174 FL 09 Bilirakis* R</p>

<p>175 FL 13 Jennings D
176 FL 13 Buchanan# R</p>

<p>177 FL 16 Mahoney D
178 FL 16 Foley* R</p>

<p>179 FL 22 Klein D
180 FL 22 Shaw* R</p>

<p>181 GA 08 Marshall* D
182 GA 08 Collins R</p>

<p>183 GA 12 Barrow* D
184 GA 12 Burns R</p>

<p>185 HI-02 Hirono# D
186 HI-02 Hogue R</p>

<p>187 GA 12 Barrow* D
188 GA 12 Burns R</p>

<p>189 IA 01 Braley D
190 IA 01 Whalen# R</p>

<p>191 IA 02 Loebsack D
192 IA 02 Leach* R</p>

<p>193 IA 03 Boswell* D
194 IA 03 Lamberti R</p>

<p>195 ID 01 Grant D
196 ID 01 Sali# R</p>

<p>197 IL 06 Duckworth D
198 IL 06 Roskam# R</p>

<p>199 IL 08 Bean* D
200 IL 08 McSweeney R</p>

<p>201 IL 10 Seals D
202 IL 10 Kirk* R</p>

<p>203 IL 11 Pavich D
204 IL 11 Weller* R</p>

<p>205 IL 17 Hare# D
206 IL 17 Zinga R</p>

<p>207 IN 02 Donnelly D
208 IN 02 Chocola* R</p>

<p>209 IN 03 Hayhurst D
210 IN 03 Souder* R</p>

<p>211 IN 08 Ellsworth D
212 IN 08 Hostetler* R</p>

<p>213 IN 09 Hill D
214 IN 09 Sodrel* R</p>

<p>215 KS 03 Moore* D
216 KS 03 Ahner R</p>

<p>217 KY 02 Weaver D
218 KY 02 Lewis* R</p>

<p>219 KY 03 Yarmuth D
220 KY 03 Northrup* R</p>

<p>221 KY 04 Lucas D
222 KY 04 Davis* R</p>

<p>223 LA 02 Jefferson* D
224 LA 02 Carter D
225 LA 02 Edwards D
226 LA 02 Lavigne R</p>

<p>227 LA 03 Melancon* D
228 LA 03 Romero R</p>

<p>229 MI 09 Skinner D
230 MI 09 Knollenberg* R</p>

<p>231 MN 01 Walz D
232 MN 01 Gutknecht* R</p>

<p>233 MN 06 Wetterling# D
234 MN 06 Bachman R</p>

<p>235 NC 08 Kissell D
236 NC 08 Hayes* R</p>

<p>237 NC 11 Shuler D
238 NC 11 Taylor* R</p>

<p>239 ND AL Pomeroy* D
240 ND AL Mechtel R</p>

<p>241 NE 01 Moul D
242 NE 01 Fortenberry* R</p>

<p>243 NH 01 Shea-Porter D
244 NH 01 Bradley* R</p>

<p>245 NH 02 Hodes D
246 NH 02 Bass* R</p>

<p>247 NJ 07 Stender D
248 NJ 07 Ferguson* R</p>

<p>249 NM 01 Madrid D
250 NM 01 Wilson* R</p>

<p>251 NV 02 Derby D
252 NV 02 Heller# R</p>

<p>253 NV 03 Hofer D
254 NV 03 Porter* R</p>

<p>255 NY 03 Mejias D
256 NY 03 King* R</p>

<p>257 NY 19 Hall D
258 NY 19 Kelly* R</p>

<p>259 NY 20 Gillibrand D
260 NY 20 Sweeney* R</p>

<p>261 NY 24 Acuri D
262 NY 24 Meier# R</p>

<p>263 NY 25 Muffei D
264 NY 25 Walsh* R</p>

<p>265 NY 26 Davis D
266 NY 26 Reynolds* R</p>

<p>267 NY 29 Massa D
268 NY 29 Kuhl* R</p>

<p>269 OH 01 Cranley D
270 OH 01 Chabot* R</p>

<p>271 OH 02 Wulsin D
272 OH 02 Schmidt* R</p>

<p>273 OH 06 Wilson# D
274 OH 06 Blasdel R</p>

<p>275 OH 12 Shamansky D
276 OH 12 Tiberi* R</p>

<p>277 OH 13 Sutton# D
278 OH 13 Foltin R</p>

<p>279 OH 15 Kilroy D
280 OH 15 Pryce* R</p>

<p>281 OH 18 Space D
282 OH 18 Padgett# R</p>

<p>283 OR 05 Hooley* D
284 OR 05 Erickson R</p>

<p>285 PA 04 Altmire D
286 PA 04 Hart* R</p>

<p>287 PA 06 Murphy D
288 PA 06 Gerlach* R</p>

<p>289 PA 07 Sestak D
290 PA 07 Weldon* R</p>

<p>291 PA 08 Murphy D
292 PA 08 Fitzpatrick* R</p>

<p>293 PA 10 Carney D
294 PA 10 Sherwood* R</p>

<p>295 SC 05 Spratt* D
296 SC 05 Norman R</p>

<p>297 SD AL Herseth* D
298 SD AL Whalen R</p>

<p>299 TX 17 Edwards* D
300 TX 17 Taylor R</p>

<p>301 TX 22 Lampson D
302 TX 22 Sekula-Gibbs# R</p>

<p>303 TX 23 Bolanos D
304 TX 23 Rodriguez D
305 TX 23 Bonilla* R</p>

<p>307 UT 02 Matheson* D
308 UT 02 Christensen R</p>

<p>309 VA 02 Kellam D
310 VA 02 Drake* R</p>

<p>311 VA 10 Feder D
312 VA 10 Wolf* R</p>

<p>313 VT AL Welch D
314 VT AL Rainville R</p>

<p>315 WA 02 Larsen* D
316 WA 02 Roulstone R</p>

<p>317 WA 05 Goldmark D
318 WA 05 McMorris* R</p>

<p>319 WA 08 Burner D
320 WA 08 Reichert* R</p>

<p>321 WI 08 Kagen D
322 WI 08 Gard# R</p>

<p>323 WV 01 Mollohan* D
324 WV 01 Wakim R</p>

<p>325 WY AL Trauner D
326 WY AL Cubin* R</p>

<p>TIE-BREAKER: Total # of House seats gained by Democrats:</p>

3

<p>Bumped.</p>

<p>If anyone is doing the contest, please delete both lines 187/188, which represent an out of sequence duplicate House race.</p>

4

<p>TheDad, I cannot do the contest (sorry) but am interested in seeing the entire “scorecard” - is there a URL you can recommend where I can see all of the House, Senate and Governor races for the entire country, preferably one that promises to be updated in real time next week?</p>

5

<p>Speed Bumps (party A) and Pot Holes (party B) are in our downhill (lameduck) future. There’s a curve in sight and the bottom can’t be seen. The tires are bald, and its raining. The driver can’t decide to gas it or to apply the brakes, let alone steer. The backseat drivers have no experience and the passengers paid the fare and held in check by the sign ‘no one past whiteline’ while vehicle in motion. </p>

<p>Hard to say. But I am thinking in the chances in surviving a jump and catching the next schedule cycle. We are certainly supplying our enemies reasons: Leaders endulging in elicit sex, drugs, corruption, and false prophets.</p>

6

<p>LTS, Posts #1 and #2 encompass all the Senate and Governor’s races and virtually all of the meaningful House races…there may be 7-8 latecomers that are still heavily tilted in favor of one party or the other to the extent that they are “Likely D/R” but not completely “Safe.”</p>

<p>In any event, being a junkie whom others reply on, I will be posting in this thread on election night. I’ll be posting results in real time as either a network (probably CNN) or myself calls a race and keep a running tally on losses gains.</p>

<p>===
ITM, if it’s any consolation, Tuesday is only the first of four Acts extending over five years.
That said, I do hope and work for status of the Republican party in this country to resemble that of Carthage after the Punic wars. I will also work to keep Democrats from overreaching in success, one of the downfalls of this current batch of arrogant out-of-wedlock children, but there surely will be some political retribution with respect to Republican policies and players. I hope that you enjoy a slightly, just slightly, better brand of bi-partisanship than we’ve been offered over the past six years.</p>

<p>Mene, mene, tekel upharsin.</p>

7

<p>The dice are on the table. Je repete: The dice are on the table.</p>

8

<p>You’ve got to be kidding.</p>

<p>Here’s as far as I’ll go: Dems pick up three Senate seats, net (PA, RI, VA, maybe MT but lose one of NJ or MD, both consummately weird races). Maybe it’s four seats. Dems get a majority of the House, but <10 seats. Everyone claims victory.</p>

9

<p>I never kid.</p>

10

<p>Unfortunately Angeledis will loose to Arnold…I hate the govenator.</p>

11

<p>Prediction:</p>

<p>House 220 Dems.</p>

<p>Senate 47 Dems.</p>

<p>Bush, based on holding the Senate and last minute strength there, declares a mandate and immediately pushes for more tax cuts. Lame duck session of congress complies. </p>

<p>Meanwhile, back in Iraq…</p>

12

<p>House - Dems 218
Senate - Dems 48</p>

<p>I can’t say I think they deserve it.</p>

<p>Stay the course.</p>

13

<p>I think the Dems will pick up some seats in the House, but not as many as are being predicted, so the media will paint it as a loss for the Dems. </p>

<p>In addition, I think the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans, Lieberman will get re-elected (ugh) and will extort the Democrats to let him keep his seniority by holding the threat of his caucusing with the Republicans over their heads. </p>

<p>(Lieberman is my senator, btw, and I have had a long and unpleasant history with his office - I frequently write my elected officials, and his office has been the absolute worst to deal with.)</p>

14

<p>I think the most talked-about subject on Wednesday will be the newly-demonstrated irrelevance of 20th-century polling as we know it in the 21st Century. My sense is that this is going to be a Wile E. Coyote election for the Democrats–the Acme Super Destructorepublican Smart Bomb is going to leave some of my good CC buddies singed and blinking through the soot. I’ll be working at the polls all day tomorrow, so don’t expect to see me showing up to collect (or remit) my ITY’s until late Wednesday morning.</p>

15

<p>I am voting for myself in every race as a protest vote.</p>

16

<p>Betting on the Pass Line for the comeout roll. Payoff will be hugh and the potential loss minor.</p>

17

<p>House:
Dem 230</p>

<p>Senate :
Rep 51</p>

18

<p>Good commentary here.
<a href=“http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/9f33c9cd-c66c-4e3e-b945-5b0c69de0cc7?trackbacks=true#commentAnchor[/url]”>http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/9f33c9cd-c66c-4e3e-b945-5b0c69de0cc7?trackbacks=true#commentAnchor&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

19

<p>So go ahead and make your predictions based on Hewitt, Driver.
Jeez, you’re a sucker for propaganda. (Btw, you may wish to
check even Fox News’ poll on voter sentiment.)</p>

<p>Les sanglots longs des violons de l’automne
blesse mon coeur d’une langueur monotone</p>

20

<p>I was relying on the NY Times, because everyone knows they’re always right.

But, as I said, the real story on Wednesday is going to be the polls themselves. Sleep well, pirate-boy.</p>