<p>It is very difficult to estimate chances for admissions accurately because admissions is such a complex process.
Extracurricular activities, essays, your particular major, and demographics all play a role.
It is especially difficult to guess admissions chances at elite schools.</p>
<p>But, just for FUN, I created a table for roughly estimating your chances for admission based on your SAT scores,
your high school rank, and the freshman SAt and rank profile at the school. The information about the school comes from
US News Best Colleges. Please don’t take this too seriously.
It is based on statistical assumptions regarding areas under a bell-shaped curve that may not apply precisely.
I think the accuracy breaks down a little at the highest SAT extremes.</p>
<p>You can perhaps average your “chances” from the SAT table and the high school rank table to obtain a somewhat more realistic estimate.</p>
<p>I hope the columns are alligned well enough. Make sure you are in the correct column. </p>
<p>I sure hope I did this right. It was complicated. I am almost afraid to post it.</p>
<p>Using SATs:
If the school uses ACTs, you can convert to SATs. Here is a link: [ACT</a> to SAT I Conversion Table](<a href=“ivywest.com”>ivywest.com)</p>
<p>Step 1: subtract the school’s SAT 25th percentile from the school’s SAT 75th percentile. Match this number with the headings
at the top of the table to find the right column.</p>
<p>Step 2: Find the school’s SAT midpoint. Add the SAT 25th percentile and the SAT 75th percentile, then divide by two.
It should be halfway between the 25th and 75th percentiles.</p>
<p>Step 3: Subtract the school’s SAT midpoint from your own SAT CR+Math score. If your score is below the school’s midpoint,
the difference will be negative. Match this difference between your score and the school’s midpoint with the row headings
on the left to find the right row.</p>
<p>Step 4: Go across the row to the correct column to find your estimated chances of admission. </p>
<p>Example: Say the difference between the 25th and 75th SAT percentiles at the school is 180 points. Your SAT CR+M is 40 points below the school’s midpoint.
Yours “chances” of admission are 38%. This means 62% (100-38) of the freshmen at that school probably have higher SATs than you. </p>
<p>-diff 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200, 210, 220, 230, 240, 250</p>
<p>-200 04% 05% 06% 07% 08% 09% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14%
-190 04% 06% 07% 08% 09% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
-180 05% 07% 08% 09% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17%
-170 06% 08% 09% 10% 11% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18%
-160 07% 09% 10% 11% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19%
-150 09% 10% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21%
-140 10% 12% 13% 15% 16% 17% 18% 20% 21% 22% 22%
-130 12% 14% 15% 16% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24%
-120 14% 16% 17% 18% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26%
-110 16% 18% 19% 20% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28%
-100 18% 20% 21% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 29%
-090 21% 22% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 31%
-080 24% 25% 26% 27% 29% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 33%
-070 26% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 33% 34% 35% 35%
-060 29% 31% 32% 33% 34% 34% 35% 36% 36% 37% 37%
-050 33% 34% 35% 35% 36% 37% 37% 38% 38% 39% 39%
-040 36% 37% 38% 38% 39% 39% 40% 40% 41% 41% 41%
-030 39% 40% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42% 43% 43% 43% 44%
-020 43% 43% 44% 44% 44% 45% 45% 45% 45% 46% 46%
-010 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48%</p>
<p>0000 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%</p>
<p>+010 54% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 52% 52% 52% 52%
+020 57% 57% 56% 56% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 54%
+030 61% 60% 59% 59% 58% 58% 58% 57% 57% 57% 56%
+040 64% 63% 62% 62% 61% 61% 60% 60% 59% 59% 59%
+050 67% 66% 65% 65% 64% 63% 63% 62% 62% 61% 61%
+060 71% 69% 68% 67% 66% 66% 65% 64% 64% 63% 63%
+070 74% 72% 71% 70% 69% 68% 67% 67% 66% 65% 65%
+080 76% 75% 74% 73% 71% 71% 70% 69% 68% 67% 67%
+090 79% 78% 76% 75% 74% 73% 72% 71% 70% 69% 69%
+100 82% 80% 79% 77% 76% 75% 74% 73% 72% 71% 71%
+110 84% 82% 81% 80% 78% 77% 76% 75% 74% 73% 72%
+120 86% 84% 83% 82% 80% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 74%
+130 88% 86% 85% 84% 82% 81% 80% 79% 78% 77% 76%
+140 90% 88% 87% 85% 84% 83% 82% 80% 79% 78% 78%
+150 91% 90% 88% 87% 86% 84% 83% 82% 81% 80% 79%
+160 93% 91% 90% 89% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82% 81%
+170 94% 92% 91% 90% 89% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82%
+180 95% 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 84% 83%
+190 96% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85%
+200 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86%</p>
<p>Using high school rank (this method is probably somewhat less accurate, based on a rough estimate that the standard deviation in HS ranks=11):</p>
<p>Step 1: Figure out your high school rank PERCENTILE. This is the percent of students in your class that are ranked below you.
So, if you are ranked 21st in your class of 365 students, your high school rank percentile is 94th percentile (365-21=344, 344/365=.94).</p>
<p>Step 2: Find the right column based on your own high school rank percentile.</p>
<p>Step 3: Look up in US News Best Colleges the “Freshmen in top 10% of HS class”. Match this percentage with the percentages in the left column of the table to find the correct row.
(IMPORTANT: This won’t work if the US News information says “top 25% of HS class” for that school.)</p>
<p>Step 4: Look across the row to the correct column to find your estimated chances of admission based on high school rank. </p>
<p>Example: If you are in the 94th HS rank percentile and 75% if the freshman at the school were in the top 10% of their high school class, then your estimated “chances” for admission are 38%.
This means that 62% (100-38) of the freshmen at that school probably have a higher HS rank than you. </p>
<p>TOP 98p, 96p, 94p, 92p, 90p, 88p, 86p, 84p, 82p, 80p, 78p, 76p, 74p, 72p, 70p, 68p, 66p, 64p, 62p, 60p</p>
<p>85p 38% 31% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
84p 39% 33% 26% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
83p 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
82p 43% 36% 29% 23% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
81p 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
80p 45% 38% 32% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
79p 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
78p 48% 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
77p 50% 42% 35% 29% 23% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
76p 51% 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
75p 52% 45% 38% 31% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
74p 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
73p 55% 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
72p 56% 49% 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00%
71p 57% 50% 42% 36% 29% 23% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00%
70p 58% 51% 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00%
69p 59% 52% 45% 38% 31% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00%
68p 60% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 16% 12% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00%
67p 61% 54% 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00%
66p 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00% 00%
65p 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 29% 23% 18% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 10% 00% 00% 00%
64p 64% 57% 50% 43% 36% 29% 24% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00%
63p 65% 58% 51% 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00%
62p 66% 59% 52% 45% 38% 31% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00%
61p 67% 60% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00%
60p 68% 61% 54% 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00%
59p 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00% 00%
58p 70% 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 29% 23% 18% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01% 00% 00%
57p 71% 64% 57% 50% 43% 36% 29% 24% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01% 00% 00%
56p 72% 65% 58% 51% 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00%
55p 73% 66% 59% 52% 45% 38% 31% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00%
54p 73% 67% 60% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 16% 12% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00%
53p 74% 68% 61% 54% 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00%
52p 75% 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00% 00%
51p 76% 70% 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 28% 23% 18% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01% 00%
50p 77% 71% 64% 57% 50% 43% 36% 29% 23% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01% 00%
49p 77% 72% 65% 58% 51% 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02% 01% 01% 00%
48p 78% 72% 66% 59% 52% 45% 38% 31% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00%
47p 79% 73% 67% 60% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 15% 12% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00%
46p 80% 74% 68% 61% 54% 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00%
45p 80% 75% 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 27% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00%
44p 81% 76% 70% 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 28% 22% 17% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 00%
43p 82% 76% 71% 64% 57% 50% 43% 36% 29% 23% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01% 01%
42p 82% 77% 71% 65% 58% 51% 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02% 01% 01%
41p 83% 78% 72% 66% 59% 52% 45% 38% 31% 25% 19% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01%
40p 84% 79% 73% 67% 60% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01%
39p 84% 80% 74% 68% 61% 54% 47% 40% 33% 26% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01% 01%
38p 85% 80% 75% 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 27% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01%
37p 86% 81% 76% 70% 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 28% 22% 17% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01%
36p 86% 82% 76% 71% 64% 57% 50% 43% 36% 29% 23% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01% 01%
35p 87% 82% 77% 71% 65% 58% 51% 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02% 01%
34p 87% 83% 78% 72% 66% 59% 52% 45% 38% 31% 25% 19% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01%
33p 88% 84% 79% 73% 67% 60% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 16% 12% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01%
32p 88% 84% 80% 74% 68% 61% 54% 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02% 01%
31p 89% 85% 80% 75% 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01%
30p 89% 86% 81% 76% 70% 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 29% 23% 18% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02% 01%
29p 90% 86% 82% 77% 71% 64% 58% 50% 43% 36% 30% 24% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 04% 02% 01%
28p 90% 87% 83% 78% 72% 66% 59% 51% 44% 37% 31% 25% 19% 15% 11% 08% 05% 04% 02% 02%
27p 91% 88% 84% 79% 73% 67% 60% 53% 45% 38% 32% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03% 02%
26p 91% 88% 84% 80% 74% 68% 61% 54% 47% 40% 33% 26% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03% 02%
25p 92% 89% 85% 80% 75% 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 27% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05% 03% 02%
24p 92% 89% 86% 81% 76% 70% 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 29% 23% 18% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03% 02%
23p 93% 90% 86% 82% 77% 71% 65% 58% 50% 43% 36% 30% 24% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 04% 02%
22p 93% 91% 87% 83% 78% 72% 66% 59% 52% 45% 37% 31% 25% 19% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04% 03%
21p 94% 91% 88% 84% 79% 73% 67% 60% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 16% 12% 08% 06% 04% 03%
20p 94% 92% 89% 85% 80% 75% 68% 62% 55% 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04% 03%
19p 95% 92% 89% 86% 81% 76% 70% 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 28% 22% 17% 13% 10% 07% 05% 03%
18p 95% 93% 90% 86% 82% 77% 71% 64% 57% 50% 43% 36% 29% 24% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05% 04%
17p 95% 93% 91% 87% 83% 78% 72% 66% 59% 52% 45% 38% 31% 25% 19% 15% 11% 08% 06% 04%
16p 96% 94% 91% 88% 84% 79% 74% 67% 61% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 21% 16% 12% 09% 06% 04%
15p 96% 94% 92% 89% 85% 80% 75% 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 27% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07% 05%
14p 96% 95% 93% 90% 86% 82% 76% 70% 64% 57% 50% 42% 35% 29% 23% 18% 14% 10% 07% 05%
13p 97% 95% 93% 90% 87% 83% 78% 72% 66% 59% 51% 44% 37% 31% 24% 19% 15% 11% 08% 05%
12p 97% 96% 94% 91% 88% 84% 79% 74% 67% 60% 53% 46% 39% 32% 26% 20% 16% 12% 09% 06%
11p 97% 96% 94% 92% 89% 85% 81% 75% 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 09% 07%
10p 98% 97% 95% 93% 90% 86% 82% 77% 71% 65% 58% 50% 43% 36% 30% 24% 18% 14% 10% 07%
09p 98% 97% 96% 94% 91% 88% 84% 79% 73% 67% 60% 53% 45% 38% 32% 25% 20% 15% 11% 08%
08p 98% 97% 96% 94% 92% 89% 85% 80% 75% 69% 62% 55% 48% 41% 34% 28% 22% 17% 13% 09%
07p 99% 98% 97% 95% 93% 90% 87% 82% 77% 71% 65% 58% 51% 44% 37% 30% 24% 19% 14% 11%
06p 99% 98% 97% 96% 94% 92% 88% 84% 80% 74% 68% 61% 54% 47% 40% 33% 27% 21% 16% 12%
05p 99% 99% 98% 97% 95% 93% 90% 86% 82% 77% 71% 65% 58% 50% 43% 36% 30% 24% 18% 14%</p>