Ok, I’ll guesstimate using an over simplified scenario with a lot of assumptions (I am sure there are a lot of; but, if etc that make this inaccurate but here goes):
Assuming he has $100k and they figured your EFC at $33k and CoA is 33k, they would be counting on $20k from his savings and parent contribution for $13k. If he uses his savings to cover the parent contribution portion he’d end up with $67k as assets the following year. He will be offered a student loan if he completed the FAFSA through the school of approx $5.5k
Assume same parent contribution, but reduced student asset by paying from his savings, the EFC would drop to $26.4k (20% of 67 and the 13). So now if school costs $33k a year you have need of $6.5k (33-26.4). But most schools aren’t meets full need schools anyway. And the most likely scenario is that school will consider your entire need met anyway, via a student loan to cover that gap. So sophomore choices are, take the loan or deplete savings further.
Assume uses savings again, the following year student assets are $34k x 20% is 6.8k+ 13k parent portion = 19.8k EFC. Now the student loans don’t cover the gap… 33k-19.8 = 13.2 -7.5k loan = 5.7k that somehow needs to be covered. If he doesn’t take the loan he’ll be left with only $1k for senior year.
Does the school meet full need? If so, do they consider loans meeting need, or do they use grants to meet need? Using a cash flow worksheet to plan ahead you can see why often students are advised and do bank the student loans made available to them the first year ($5,500), knowing they will need the funds later. I build an excel sheet that shows tax credits ($2,500/year x 4 = an extra 10k for the budget) to figure out the cash flow needed.
Banking loans $5,500+5,500+6,500+7,500 and the tax credits could cover the last year in this scenario, but you’d have to plan ahead.
Of course, every year policies change, so in the end who knows. Which is why the financial aid office is being very careful in their response.
Troy’s article is a great way to get an overview and insight into financial aid formulas https://www.forbes.com/sites/troyonink/2017/01/08/2017-guide-to-college-financial-aid-the-fafsa-and-css-profile/#67c3a6d84cd4
There are also online worksheets you can use to run through different scenarios.
Our daughter had a chunk of savings and we were hard pressed to keep hers whole, but were able to because she won enough merit aid. There were plenty of schools we just couldn’t afford to consider for our son (without him depleting his savings) so he didn’t apply to those (he didn’t want to dip into his savings and we can’t afford to cover his portion). We picked schools with CoAs that fit the parent contribution portion of the FAFSA.
There were still plenty of great schools to choose from, and I’d take working around my kid having a nice nest egg over the challenges faced by an EFC of 0 any day, especially when the few schools that meet need are like lotteries to get into. And I rested easy knowing if parent circumstances changed our kids had the resources they needed to finish on their own.
Run his current nest egg through a retirement calculator and see what he is giving up and make sure you’ve chosen a school that will be worth his investment. 100k at 18 invested for 40 years at 6.5% becomes 1.3 million