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<p>I don’t see it that way at all. I think Zimmerman had a clear motive to try to physically apprehend Martin to hold him until the police arrived. I think that Zimmerman grabbed Martin (at the T) , Martin tried to pull lose and run away, Zimmerman pursued Martin and grabbed him again, and then there was a struggle where both men fell to the ground, with Martin ending up on top at some point (at the point 40 feet away from the initial encounter, where the shooting took place).</p>
<p>I think that Martin did hit Zimmerman in the face, in the course of his struggle to get away. I don’t know whether that took place at the T (causing Zimmerman to become enraged in his pursuit of Martin) – or whether it happened when they were on the ground. </p>
<p>I also don’t know whether Zimmerman drew his gun at the T (and was running after Martin with a loaded gun, which certainly would have provided motive to Martin to fight back hard) – or whether he drew his gun after Martin hit him on the ground and was starting to get up. </p>
<p>I do think that if the gun was holstered, then Martin would have had to be getting up and moving away from Zimmerman in order for him to reach his gun and aim at the chest. </p>
<p>I think the last voice on the tape was Martin’s, and I believe that because of the fact that the scream stopped as soon as the shot was fired. I think that if Zimmerman had been shouting for help while holding his own gun, he would have kept on shouting, perhaps even more frantically after firing – especially as he claims he didn’t know Martin was dead. </p>
<p>Zimmerman claims that Martin sat up and said something like “you got me” after the shot was fired. I think that is physically impossible and I am guessing that the prosecution will be able to show that with forensic or medical testimony. But I think that statement of Zimmerman is based on something that happened – I just think it happened before the shot was fired not after. I think the prosecutor is going to argue something along those lines, and that is the basis of the 2nd degree murder charge. </p>
<p>Obviously what I think and/or what you think is not dispositive – it is what the jury thinks – but I’m posting this to show you that there is a very different point of view as to logical “motive” of the parties. I can see Martin getting into a shoving match with Zimmerman, particularly in a response to something being said - but I don’t see any motivation for him to be punching him, and the location where the two were on the ground is consistent with Zimmerman chasing Martin, but not with Martin attacking Zimmerman. </p>
<p>The most damaging witness against Zimmerman is Zimmerman. I anticipate that the prosecution is going to put on whatever neighbors remain to be called next week, then shift to more police / forensic / medical testimony – and then move to introduce Zimmerman’s statements and the filmed walkthrough into evidence as party admissions. </p>
<p>If Zimmerman testifies, then I expect a very rough cross-examination – followed by prosecution expert rebuttal evidence to establish that Zimmerman’s account of the shooting is impossible. </p>
<p>My guess is that Zimmerman won’t testify, leaving the prosecution to raise these issues in argument. I don’t see any way that the defense can risk having Zimmerman testify. He can’t “clean up” the gaps & problems with what he has already said without it being pointed out that he is changing his story. I think that if the defense thought that Zimmerman could withstand cross, they would have followed through with the stand your ground hearing.</p>