<p>Alright, I know that Princeton has a pretty steady stream of chances posts, and furthermore, there will only be more next April. To this end, I have, using very complex statistical and analytical methods, created a ‘chances calculator’. In actuality, it is not a calculator, but rather a series of steps that one can follow to find their chance of admission at any given university. I hope to fully automate this into a program come September, and eventually submit it as my senior thesis to Princeton. I have tried it with several students who are going to college; the sample of colleges I have tried it on had a very high variance of selectivity, yet I was able to obtain accuracy within .004 percent of the expected mean. Hopefully, this calculator will stem the number of chances posts; for anyone who reads this, please re-direct any new chances threads to this post. Anyway, enough chat! Let’s begin.</p>
<p>Statistical Formula for Admission into a Given College C</p>
<li><p>Take your age, and divide it by the grade you are currently in in high school.</p></li>
<li><p>Take your grade point average, in X/100 scale and unweighted, and round it up to the nearest whole number. Take the decimal portion of it. If it is higher than .6, skip to step 4a. If it is lower than .3, skip to step 4b. Otherwise, divide it by .2 and obtain the remainder.</p></li>
<li><p>Take the number you have just obtained, calling it D, and multiply it by 100, rounding it to a whole number. Take the greatest common factor of it, and call it DP. Now, here’s where it gets a little tricky:</p></li>
</ol>
<ul>
<li><p>If D is prime, then take the variant cosum vC(DP) and assign the value 1 to it.</p></li>
<li><p>If (DP - D) < (DP / (D - sqrt(DP)), then take the variant cosum vC(DP) and assign the value -1 to it.</p></li>
<li><p>If (DP - D) >= (DP / (D - sqrt(DP)), then take the variant codifference
vD(DP) and assign the value -1 to it.</p></li>
</ul>
<li>Create a two-by-two matrix, where a(1,1) is the number of overall extracurricular activities you have done your high school career, counting each activity once per year, a(1,2) the average amount of hours per month you spend in your ECs, a(2,1) the amount of sports or jobs you have done your high school career, counting each sport/job once per year, and a(2,2) the average amount of hours per month you spend doing sports/jobs. This forms your differential effort index; keep this matrix handy! Skip to Step 5.</li>
</ol>
<p>4a. Subtract .6 from your decimal remainder of your GPA; if the last digit is evenly divisible by two, take the variant codifference vD(DP) and assign -2 to it. Go back to Step 4.</p>
<p>4b. Take the last digit of the decimal remainder of your GPA; if the last digit is less than three, take the variant cosum vC(DP) and assign -2 to it.</p>
<li><p>Randomly select three people, and tell them what you did over the past few summers. If at least two of them say ‘wow’, add three to your variant codifference, or subtract three from your variant cosum. Otherwise, take the determinant of your differential effort index, and subtract it from your variant codifference, or add it to your variant cosum. If you have no differential effort index, go back to Step 1.</p></li>
<li><p>Take your GPA on a X/4.0 scale. If it is at least 4, then assign the value ‘5’ to polynomial cofactor A (pCFA). If it is at least 3, then assign the value of ln 5 to pCFA. If it is lower than 3, assign the value of 5^(1/5) to pCFA. </p></li>
<li><p>If you are a legacy to the college you are calculating this for, skip to Step 11. Now. Otherwise, calculate the amount of money your family makes, and assign it to the polynomial cofactor D (pCFD). If the college you are applying to is need-blind, subtract 80,000 from pCFD. If you vacation regularly in Martha’s Vineyard, Cabo San Lucas, the Hamptons, or Kittebunkport, add 75,000 to pCFD. If you have never heard of the above places, subtract 40,000 from pCFD.</p></li>
<li><p>If you have ever committed a crime, been suspended or expelled from any high school, or are from a country outside the college you wish to attend, assign the value of -3 to polynomial cofactor B pCFB. If you are valedictorian or salutatorian of your high school class, assign the value of 3 to pCFB. If both, assign the value of D to pCFB.</p></li>
<li><p>Take the determinant of your differential effort index again, but this time, add your GPA on a 4.0 scale to it. If it is less than -40, skip to Step 11c. Otherwise, assign the value of polynomial cofactor C (pCFC) to it. Skip to Step 11a.</p></li>
<li><p>Assign the values 4, 16, 24, and 3 to pCFA,pCFB,
pCFC, and pCFD. If your selected school has been in existence since 1832, skip to step 9, then immediately move to step 11d. If not, move to step 12a.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>11a. If you plan to take more than 5 AP courses, assign 5 to your AP Effort Index (APEI). If you plan to take between 1 and 5 AP courses, assign 2 to APEI. If you have already taken any AP tests, take the mean of your AP scores and add it to your APEI. Skip to Step 11b.</p>
<p>11b. Assign the value of 6 to your Personal Attractiveness Index (PAI). If you have bad body odor, subtract 4 from your PAI. If you are extremely hot, add six to your PAI. If you can be a seductive weasel, add two to your PAI. Skip to Step 12a.</p>
<p>11c. Choose a number between 1 and 40, and add it to your GPA. If it is odd, guess again, sucka! Go back to Step 6. If it is even and above twenty, go to Step 12b, and subtract 4 from pCFA. Otherwise, move to Step 12a.</p>
<p>11d. If your pCFB is below zero, you are too pathetically slothful to attend any university whatsoever. Go learn to pump gas, dude.</p>
<li>If you are reading this before you have read Step 12a, your mental concentration is at a low. Go back to Step 2 and try to show some effort in doing this, please.</li>
</ol>
<p>12a. Let the Global Predictor Function GPF(X) be equal to pCFA * x^5 + pCFB * x^4 + 3pCFC * x - pCFD. Using either your variant cosum or variant codifference as a guideline, find the integral of GPF(X). If C is less than 60, go to Step 12c. Otherwise, go to Step 13.</p>
<p>12b. Add 2 to your previous answer and skip to Step 13c.</p>
<p>12c. Find the definite integral of GPF(X) from 0 to 1. If it is below 100, skip immediately to Step 13a.</p>
<li>Find the definite integral of GPF(X) from -1 to 1. Add the PAI and APEI to your answer. This is your Total Calculated Vector (TCV). Skip to Step 13b.</li>
</ol>
<p>13a. Subtract two from your previous answer and skip to Step 13c.</p>
<p>13b. If TCV < GPF(vc(DP)), or vc(DP) does not exist for you, multiply the TCV by -1. Skip to Step 14.</p>
<p>13c. Subtract two from your previous answer and skip to Step 12b.</p>
<li><p>Have five people read your essays, and give them a cumulative total of 1-10 per person. If your combined essay score is above 40, divide the TCV by six. If your combined essay score is less than 20, multiply the TCV by two.</p></li>
<li><p>Take the US News ranking of your selected college, and multiply it by two. If the US News ranking is above 100, substitute 100 for the rank instead. Take the inference modifier IM and assign it to the value of <a href="%7CTCV%7C%20mod%20Ranking">i</a>*. Divide IM by three.</p></li>
<li><p>If you are using Questbridge for college, multiply IM by 1.2. If your TCV is above 2000, add 10 to your IM. If it is between 1000 and 2000, add 5 to your IM.</p></li>
<li><p>Divide your IM by 100. The resulting number is the percentage chance you have to be accepted into your university.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>I hope this has helped people to, once and for all, know the chance of attending their dream school. If anyone wants to understand the reasoning behind the formula, they can IM me with their address; I’ll mail them a sealed, 150-page paper summarizing my findings. Additionally, I’d like some feedback; calculate your percentage and tell me if you got accepted/rejected to your favorite school! </p>
<p>Hope you had fun reading this ;).</p>