Forbes article: New ideas for letting schools know you'll go if they take you

lolabelle · May 5, 2007, 7:23pm

An interesting article from Forbes Magazine. The article is for Forbes.com users only so I’ve copied and pasted it in full, below:

Forbes.com: “Cupid and Colleges”
Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff 05.21.07, 12:00 AM ET

Lee Coffin has a tough job. He is the Dean of admissions and enrollment management at Tufts University. He has 15,300 applicants for 1,275 spots. The enrollment-management problem isn’t just who to choose, but how many. The early-decision applicants are easy–the ones admitted have to come. That takes care of just over 400 slots.

The hard part is filling the remaining 860. Last year Tufts accepted 3,700, expecting a 23% yield. While Tufts accepts roughly 26% of the applicants from its nonearly pool, only 23% of those students accept Tufts. In short, while it is hard to get into Tufts, it is even harder for Tufts to get those admitted to enroll.

The problem is that students have no good way to signal that they really want to go to Tufts. They can visit classes or read the course catalog, but other than committing themselves via early decision, they can’t prove to Tufts that they really want to attend. Therefore Tufts and just about every other college have to play a guessing game.

Colleges aren’t the only ones facing this challenge. Women find themselves bombarded on online dating services. Who is serious and who is just ■■■■■■■■? Universities looking to hire faculty find themselves overwhelmed with applicants. Which ones should they interview? It doesn’t help to interview people who ultimately won’t accept an offer. Thus schools try to guess who is good enough to hire but not so good as to get a better offer and go elsewhere.

When talk is cheap, everyone claims to be interested. A solution to this mess would be for an applicant to send a credible signal, something that would make sense only if the school or the partner really was a top choice. This theory of signaling led to a Nobel for Michael Spence. For example, the value of an M.B.A. education is not just what you learn but the statement that you were willing to invest two years in school. That says the person is committed to a career in management.

In the case of online dating, professors Muriel Niederle and Dan Ariely advised Cupid.com to give each guy two electronic roses a month. Hence when a woman gets an e-rose, it means that the guy is really interested.

With the help of Harvard’s Alvin Roth, the economics profession tried something similar this year. Candidates for assistant professorships were given e-buttons they could send to two schools to indicate serious interest. In trying to decide which of the myriad applicants to interview, the schools could give priority to those who had signaled their interest with an e-button.

Why not do the same thing for college applicants? The College Board or another nonprofit would give students the chance to pick two schools. The schools would be notified as to who had picked them. Another school wouldn’t know which others the applicants had picked, only that it hadn’t been picked. (Students could also elect to opt out, so that all the schools would know that the student hadn’t given out any roses.)

As with academic positions, most applicants wouldn’t use their roses with Harvard or Yale. Those schools are confident that they will get the majority of their admits. Instead, students who truly prefer Tufts over Amherst or Columbia, either as a first choice or as a backup, would have a way to show it.

Today students have few opportunities to send such signals. National Merit Semifinalists and Commendation awardees get something like roses because the testing firm gives them the chance to rank their top two schools. Everyone else can signal with an early-decision application. This is a very strong signal, as it requires the student to accept if admitted (subject only to adequate financial aid). Then there is early action. Students are not committed to accepting, but in most cases they can apply to only one school.

Now, with schools from Harvard and Princeton to the University of Delaware eliminating early decisions, fewer students know their answer in December, and the remainder apply not to 5 or 6, as their parents did, but to 10 or 12. Enrollment management becomes even harder as student decisions become less predictable.

Waiting lists are ballooning because schools know that in the summer many of their admits will melt away. (The “melt” is the time that higher-ranked schools finally clear their waiting lists, and students who have put down a deposit elsewhere finally learn whether they got into Brown, for instance.) The whole process could use some help.

Roses. Everyone gets only two, and they can’t buy more. The e-roses will smell sweet indeed to Lee and his colleagues.

Ian Ayres and Barry Nalebuff are professors at Yale Law School and Yale School of Management. Ian’s newest book, Supercrunchers, will be coming out in August.

edad · May 5, 2007, 7:29pm

Sorry, I don’t feel at all sorry for the Tufts adcoms. The adcoms have all the power in deciding how to make selections and who to admit. Why give them any more power just so they can increase their yields?

system · May 5, 2007, 7:29pm

I love this idea. I had a clear favorite but couldn’t ED because of $$.

I disagree Edad. There is less concern about yield since USNews dropped it as an element. This will help the sincere applicant who wants the school but needs to see aid. They will be on a more even playing field with the wealthy.

edad · May 5, 2007, 7:33pm

You would love the idea if you were admitted. You would not be too happy if not admitted and other colleges knew they were not first on your list.

snoopyiscool · May 5, 2007, 7:39pm

In theory, it’s an excellent idea. Point out your top choice, and they give you precedence.

But upon further examination, you realize, what about the so-so applicant? Perhaps they point out Berkeley and Columbia as their first choices. Unfortunately, this applicant is put on the waitlist at both schools. And the other schools she applied to ignore her because of her little interest shown. Where is she to go?

I realize this might be a narrowly conceived scenario, but it is entirely possible, and it puts undue pressure on the applicant.

system · May 5, 2007, 7:42pm

It’s a chance I would have been willing to take. In the end, I did get the messege across in my app. I got into extremely competitive schools though (h and P) not telling them they were my top choice.

lolabelle · May 5, 2007, 7:44pm

I agree that this will help colleges in predicting their yield, but that’s not really a self-helping notion now that yield has been cut out of rankings (not that rankings should matter, but you know). If they can better predict how many kids will come to the school, then they will avoid things like over-enrollment which can lead to less or worse (say put 3 in a double) housing for students, and other such practical quality of life/education considerations.

And it would be good for students to be able to show their preference for a school—whether as a first-choice or back-up—in a way that’s not totally financially binding before seeing the finaid package, which is a big reason why many people don’t apply ED

edad · May 5, 2007, 7:47pm

Many schools overenroll intentionally. When they put 3 students in a dorm room, they all pay full rate.

northeastmom · May 5, 2007, 7:58pm

I think that many poor and middle class students would have to give roses to “financial safeties”, b/c otherwise they might not get in anywhere affordable. I think that many students would need to give roses to their instate publics, especially if middle class.

menloparkmom · May 5, 2007, 8:02pm

“As with academic positions, most applicants wouldn’t use their roses with Harvard or Yale.”

I totally disagree with this assumption. Why WOULDN’T a student use a rose for H or Y if they would jump at the chance to go to either college if admitted?

Pearl · May 5, 2007, 9:38pm

For many the ultimate choice is based on how much merit aid is offered. My niece (perfect score SAT and other excellent ECs, GPA, ect…) clearly wanted to go to Emory - but only about $14,000 was offered and her other outside scholarship money just didn’t hardlly put a dent into the over $40,000 per year price tag. SOooo, she went with UGA which offered a full ride with summer travels and other opportunities - all paid for.

In the application process, she might have wanted that rose to go to Emory, but in the end most have to be practical.

northeastmom · May 5, 2007, 9:57pm

Pearl, exactly my point. For those who are not wealthy, that rose might need to go to the school that is financially a safety.

lolabelle · May 5, 2007, 9:58pm

No matter the reason behind why people send roses to certain schools—be they financial, social, cultural, academic, or just plain overall dream school considerations—everyone would get a chance to let two schools know that they’re at the top of their decision-tipping list.

edad · May 5, 2007, 11:01pm

For many schools you can apply EA. Often admit rates are not that much higher than for regular admissions.

system · May 5, 2007, 11:32pm

Those of us who need aid can’t take advantage of the boost that colleges give hooked candidates like legacies and athletes who apply early. There is a big numbers difference.

Forbes article: New ideas for letting schools know you'll go if they take you

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