Fortune Mag on college costs - focus on Middlebury

<p>The latest Fortune magazine has a feature on the high cost of private schools, with Middlebury as the proxy for others with some detailed comments on its situation. I don’t see the story online; I read the print. The piece talks about some of the usual subjects, such as big construction projects, while underemphasizing or ignoring other aspects, such as the fact that colleges are inherently labor intensive and subject to cost pressures relative to inflation.</p>

<p>Anyway, the piece discusses some of Middlebury’s challenges and what they might do about them. A lot depends on not hitting an “inflection point” where people bail.</p>

<p>Here it is. I again applaud Middlebury for being so forthcoming about the way the financial crisis is affecting the college. I think this transparency will pay off in the long run…</p>

<p>[Middlebury</a> College: Coping with recession - Apr. 10, 2009](<a href=“Middlebury College: Coping with recession - Apr. 10, 2009”>Middlebury College: Coping with recession - Apr. 10, 2009)</p>

<p>Thanks, arcadia. Sometimes a very simple graph conveys what it needs to. Take a look at the cost of private college relative to the CPI. Two simple plots.</p>

<p>Our family is trying to decide on admission to a couple of very expensive schools with no aid or merit and some that are less costly. I wish we had a better idea what the curve will look like in the next three years. I’m not sure I want to pony up if the schools will be $65K three years from now… Anyway, that’s a common concern, nothing special.</p>

<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/middlebury-college/646780-middlebury-facing-financial-difficulties.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/middlebury-college/646780-middlebury-facing-financial-difficulties.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>This article, among other points, were fairly broadly discussed in this thread. I agree that I appreciate the honesty, but iike i’ve said, it bugs me that while we’ve been prudent (and frugal) over the years, others have lived high on the hog and are getting financial aid because their job (or line of work) went bust. Not begrudging the kids an education, just wondering why the standard rules of life only apply to a few.</p>

<p>Here’s EphBlog’s take on Middlebury’s latest woe-is-me.
[Middlebury</a> Update : EphBlog](<a href=“http://www.ephblog.com/2009/04/21/middlebury-update/#more-16335]Middlebury”>http://www.ephblog.com/2009/04/21/middlebury-update/#more-16335)</p>

<p>From what I can gather

  1. Middlebury is on the verge of becoming GM.<br>
  2. Middlebury will start accepting food stamps as tuition this year from freeloaders in an effort to appease the other half who pay sticker price.<br>
  3. In the future, pesants and internationals need not apply.</p>

<p>Of course, if the Rosetta Stone business take off, you can scratch (1) out.</p>

<p>It’s very interesting, especially if you go on to read the 15th response to “Middlebury Update”</p>

<p>Yeah. Listen to David Kane (aka Chicken Little). Williams is going bust too, as is Amherst. Give me a break. I’d hazard to say that Ephblog is the single greatest Eph deterrent around. If I were a prospective student considering Williams, one look at Ephblog would send me running. The administration probably cringes every time that blog is updated with elitist drivel.</p>

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Enemy of your enemy is your friend. =).</p>

<p>Seems like you don’t know what you are talking about. Where do I say that Williams is going bust?</p>

<p>Middlebury, on the other hand, is in real trouble . . . But, on the bright side, they’ll be making many more spots available for rich kids . . .</p>

<p>As I understand it, Williams is increasing it’s class size over the next four years, much the same as Midd. And from their own budget release posted on Monday (maybe the ephblog about Midd was posted on the same day as a distraction?) the point remains: All of these schools are pretty much saying the exact same thing. If Williams had a language school or a program the quality of Midd’s environmental sciences or ANY program that stood out with the same kind of reputation, they’d be pushing it to big time to increase their income stream as well. </p>

<p><a href=“Williams College”>Williams College;

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<p>Take a look at every other thread you start on Ephblog. The sky is falling…the sky is falling!!! </p>

<p>And David–you know nothing about the details of Middlebury’s finances. Do you have the financial statements and balance sheets in front of you? It’s all speculation on your part. In fact, you clearly don’t know much about Middlebury at all (execpt perhaps some leftover impressions from when you were a student at Williams decades ago). For example, in another Ephblog thread you started weeks ago, you estimate that 1 in 10 cross admits chooses M over W, when in fact that number is closer to 4 in 10 (and growing every year).</p>

<p>1) If I am wrong about cross-admits, I would be happy to correct it. Do you have a source for the 4 in 10 claim?</p>

<p>2) All that I know about Middlebury’s finances I read in Fortune. Is that data correct? If not, tell Fortune, not me. If the data is fine, then it is fairly obvious that Middlebury is in trouble because its per student net financial wealth is so much lower than many of its peers.</p>

<p>3) “maybe the ephblog about Midd was posted on the same day as a distraction?” LOL.</p>

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<p>It appears further down in the comments on that thread (posted by a reader who claims to have access to that information). Should we take their word for it? Probably not. But that poster has as much cred as you do. 10 years ago, Middlebury posted a presentation on their institutional research page that listed some cross admit numbers. At the time, 24% of cross admits chose M over W. That number had undoubted risen as Middlebury has ascended in the ranks.</p>

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<p>Do you really think that Middlebury would link to that Fortune article from the college website (or even agree to be interviewed for the article in the first place) if they thought the Fortune article spelled doom and gloom for the college? I think the article is a fair and balanced look at the issues facing all elite colleges in times of economic uncertainty. Middlebury’s per student endowment number still compares favorably to most top schools in the country. Middlebury is still a wealthy institution with a remarkable physical plant, top notch professors (consistently rated #1 by PR), and loyal alumni who are giving at record levels. In fact, the college just broke the 60% alumni giving rate last year. Only a handful of schools in the country have alumni giving rates above 60%. To say “I give Middlebury three more years” is simply an absurd statement that reflects a lack of understanding regarding the college’s financial situation.</p>

<p>1) I am not sure we disagree that much, and I certainly agree that Middlebury deserves credit for openness (although the spinning around the admissions discussion was egregious). I also think that there is no such thing as bad publicity.</p>

<p>2) I am not anti-Middlebury. I like Middlebury! It and Williams are as similar as two schools can be. I can easily imagine my daughters going to Middlebury.</p>

<p>3) Clarification: My “I give Middlebury three more years” quote is not about Middlebury disappearing or going bankrupt. It is about Middlebury dropping need-blind admissions. I predict that, within three years, Middlebury will either drop need-blind admissions or engage in significant lay-offs or both. Does this reflect “doom and gloom?” Depends on your point of view. I fully expect Middlebury to be an excellent college for decades to come.</p>

<p>4) “cred” is in the eye of the beholder, but Middlebury’s history of data manipulation with regard to SAT rates does give one pause. More background here:</p>

<p>[Relative</a> Yields : EphBlog](<a href=“http://www.ephblog.com/2008/05/20/relative-yields/]Relative”>http://www.ephblog.com/2008/05/20/relative-yields/)</p>

<p>Admittedly, that does not give data for Middlebury. But, anyone who thinks that Williams loses 4 out of 10 to Middlebury is wrong. Alas, I lack the energy to convince you of this fact, so if you would rather go on believing it, please do so.</p>

<p>When you attended Williams, Middlebury wasn’t even close to being a top overlap school. By 2005, however, Midd was one of Williams’ top seven overlaps.</p>

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<p>[Williams</a> Record ARCHIVES: April 12, 2005](<a href=“WRAPS organizes campus-wide food drive, adapts to COVID restrictions – The Williams Record”>WRAPS organizes campus-wide food drive, adapts to COVID restrictions – The Williams Record)</p>

<p>Even Ted Fiske recently updated his college guide’s “top overlap” section in his entry for Williams. Middlebury is now listed as one of Williams top six overlaps (along with the schools mentioned in the Record article above). This wasn’t the case even five years ago.</p>

<p>I am not an alum from either Midd or Williams. But I can and do understand the personal attachment one shares for their Alma Mater. </p>

<p>But look. However magnanimous need-blind admissions SEEMS to be is to suggest there is some great cloak of honor and truth in this blindness. However, I ask you to consider that there is quite a lot to be gleaned from zip codes, high school codes, and EC’s (not to mention essays and personal statements) to give most Adcoms with any brains a clue of which applicants are going to require the most funding. Second… wait lists are not need blind… FOR EITHER Middlebury or Williams (and frankly, I dont know of any schools who continue their need blind policies when it comes to waiting lists). And if you’re looking to increase revenue by admitting more students (as both Midd and Williams have on their agenda) it makes little sense to admit those requiring a lot of aid. </p>

<p>To show just how similar:</p>

<p>Number of qualified applicants offered a place on waiting list Will:1,553 Midd: 1266
Number accepting a place on the waiting list W: 682 M: 646
Number of wait-listed students admitted: W: 67 admitted M: 73 admitted</p>

<p>I’d say Williams waitlists considerably more students than Midd when you also consider that the rest of the numbers are pretty close, including kids accepting a place and the number who are eventually offered admission. All schools are going to try to hold on to their need blind admissions to secure the most diversity and if Williams can do it longer, bully for them. But here’s where I have my doubts… </p>

<p>As a parent looking at all these colleges and trying to ascertain just what is going to change in the next four years as a result of the economy, at least on Middlebury’s website I can easily find the information. In fact, they’ve seemed the most transparent of ALL the schools to which my son was accepted or waitlisted (Amherst, Tufts, Colgate, Hamilton, Trinity and Middlebury). So… say what you will, but at least I feel reasonably informed about the future and while the future looks tight, at least Midd doesn’t need new libraries, science buildings or dorms. And beyond capital improvements, there also arent alot of maintenance issues out there either. While I am not certain, I think Williams definitely has a few of those, as has Amherst that they’ve been putting off and are now off the table entirely. These aren’t new and/or improved buildings (although there is that as well), this is maintenance of the old ones!</p>

<p>The point is… no one is immune. Every single school says their endowments are down 30% (minimally) and they will only spend the required 5% next year (to remain a nonprofit). So maybe Williams does have some extra money in the bank (although roughly 45% of their budget was covered by endowment last year), and maybe their 6 percent increase in tuition will keep them at current rates. But how is that any more sustainable than Midd’s projections? They are BOTH planning and needing to cut approx 20 million from their budgets into next year! So to suggest Middlebury is going to curl up and fail is to not be any kind of historian, nor is it taking a good enough look at your own house, although admittedly it’s a helluva lot harder to find any of this info on Williams’ website. </p>

<p>And speculation is speculation… but at least if you’re going to be guessing about the future, do it with some hard facts and don’t pretend that Midd is the only one facing lean times. Frankly, I find it kind of interesting that there is so much attention paid to Middlebury on a Williams blog site. It just doesnt strike me as confident in the least. It’s like when my kids say… look at him, he did it too and worse! Point the finger and at least three more are pointing back at yourself.</p>

<p>acadia: Thanks for the link. Interesting! I still find the 4 out of 10 number implausible, but I could be wrong. Of course, the overlap number does not tell us much about the relative yields. But I did check the Middlebury common data set and, although the low SAT percentage was somewhat suspicious, I was impressed with the high scores.</p>

<p>Anyway, I retract my 1 in 10 estimate. I bet that it is much higher than that.</p>

<p>Modadunn: Middlebury has about half as much money as Williams and more students. That doesn’t mean bankruptcy, but I predict it means major lay-offs and/or an end to need-blind. Check back in three years to find out who is right.</p>

<p>Just curious but do you believe need blind admissions is the defining principal of an elite school? If Williams truly cared about affordibility they might have reconsidered such a huge increase for next year. You respond as if Williams hasn’t a care in the world. Who are you trying to convince? Cross admits?</p>

<p>correction to the above: tuition increase for Williams is stated at 4.9%… I THOUGHT I had read 5.9 … my mistake.</p>

<p>I agree, I’m not really sure what the argument is…a school can be need aware (which Midd now is for intls) and also (a) transparent, (b) still have a very significant financial aid budget compared to other schools and (c) make a very honest effort not to just settle for a class of prep school clones…when things get tight, yes they might have to make some hard decisions…but I don’t think it means they have to immediately drop all their ideals and admit only rich kids with 1300 scores, there is such a thing as compromise…</p>

<p>and if you’re just saying Midd is having trouble, we already knew that because THEY TOLD US THEMSELVES…most people aren’t so naive that they can’t read between the lines of the article etc.</p>