I don’t imagine anyone here thinks that the draft would be started up under the current set of world circumstances, just for the heck of it. What awaits on the world stage feels more uncertain than it has in recent times, however.
^^^^That avatar looks rather creepy… :o
A draft would be needed if a huge build up for the Army was required. There aren’t many feasible scenarios where this could take place. The Army fought two wars and didn’t need to lower the bar with their normal recruitment. You’d need 5 or 6 simultaneous Iraq and Afghanistans.
Supply and Demand… Imagine a day when we are engaged on the ground in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Western Europe all at the same time. Or a war similar to Vietnam where MILLIONS of servicemen were deployed.
Some of the problems with a draft have already been pointed out. I wasn’t drafted, but chose to enlist in order to select who I was joining, and for how long a period of time. There were numerous fellow servicemen with degrees and skills that the military wished they had today. Most of them were either drafted or forced to enlist for various reasons. My Master Gunnery Sergeant practically begged me to re-enlist so he could send me anywhere I wanted to go in the world.
A college student is very aware of every aspect of the draft if one is in effect. I read the newspapers and listened to the news daily. I talked to veterans on my campus. When I learned what my lottery number was, I understood that my life was about to change.
“Creepy Avatar” would be a good name for a band…
Actually a photo of a creepy doll for sale at a recent estate sale. ^My ex enlisted rather than be drafted and spent a year on the ground in Vietnam. He was pretty messed up there, actually.
I doubt very much you would see a large scale war like WWII again, or even vietnam, I think after the futility of Iraq and Afghanistan, conventional warfare has been shown to be pretty much gone. Even with Russia rattling its saber, they have more to lose in a large scale war, not to mention the fear of it escalating into a nuclear war. On top of that, the cost of such a large scale war might be unthinkable, we spent something like 3 or 4 trillion on Iraq and Afghanistan, and those were limited wars. The wars that are being fought are going to be special forces kind of dark ops, and more and more is going to be economic and cyber warfare.
That’s not quite accurate according to several friends who served in OIF/Afghanistan as NCOs/company grade officers. Recruitment standards WERE LOWERED compared to the mid-late '90s when they enlisted/graduated from academy/ROTC/OCS in the mid-late '90s. They had to be to meet suddenly increasing manpower requirements during those wars.
However, the bar was still well-above that set during the days of the Vietnam War when recruitment standards even for junior officers were lowered to the point Army OCS in that period accepted a draftee who struggled with mostly failing/abysmal grades through one year of community college, drifted through several service/retail/odd jobs, and had a reputation among peers as not being the sharpest tool in the shed.
The last assessment ended up following this particular officer when he joined his unit according to testimony from soldiers/NCOs in the platoon he commanded…including their witness accounts of his company commander constantly berating him in front of the soldiers/NCOs for being a screwup and lacking common sense. Testimony which was conducted as a result of the My Lai Massacre for which he was held responsible for by US military court martial before having his sentence reduced to a few years of house arrest at the behest of President Nixon. Yes, I’m referring to former Second Lieutenant William Calley.
Too much fear mongering going on. The only way there would be a draft again in the US is if there is actually a WWIII. Every time that has happened in the past, it was because of other countries and a lack of will in the US to get involved until it was out of control.
To quote the great Aaron Rodgers… R.E.L.A.X. relax.
No risk to a draft. As was said there are many many volunteers looking to serve their country and get a job. ROTC programs are incredibly successful to help people pay for college and those programs feed the army ranks as well.
We have been almost at constant war since the draft was abolished. There has been no need for a draft. We do just fine without needing more soldiers.
The modern battlefield will not require as many people as before. The new method is targeted clean kills will missiles. No need to send in troops when a missile will work. Trump is going to bomb the (censored) out of ISIS. No need for troops.
Not to mention Russia is facing an increasing demographic problem of a shrinking population of military-aged males which had its origins in the '60s and was exacerbated by increasing alcoholism/negative effects of the endemic poverty in the '90s/early '00s.
This demographic issue was already so bad during the early Brezhnev years that starting in the late '60s, they started permitting the drafting of men with serious criminal records which contributed to the institutionalized hazing within the Russian armed forces known as Dedovshchina.
This problem has only gotten worse since the ending of the Soviet Union and was a key factor in why many military aged men in Russia do their utmost to evade the draft…or emigrate to the US and other countries before reaching call-up age.