Anyone here worried about a military draft soon? Seems a potential argument against a gap year. I’m serious, not trying to be incendiary.
Highly doubtful and a panic response to the current state of affairs.
I don’t predict reinstating the draft within the next yr, if that’s what Matzo is asking.
In imo, the draft would be difficult given the state of gender equality. Rightly or wrongly, now that just about every military door has opened for females, it would be difficult to draft males but not females, and that sticking point would make it tougher to reinstate.
Zero chance of that because rich peoples kids would have to go.
In the United States? There is no possibility in the near future. The US Armed forces wouldn’t stand for it.
Why would you worry about a draft right now? They have more volunteers than they know what to do with. And a draft isn’t something that just sneaks up upon you with no warning, they would have to have a serious need, and the military is overflowing with volunteers.
And even assuming there was a real possibility of a draft, depending on how it’s implemented, taking/not taking a gap year may not make a difference.
There have been cases in US and other nations’ histories when college students in the middle of their academic careers were called up. While there have been academic deferments, that’s not always guaranteed and can be limited in scope.
Sometimes that meant one had till the end of that academic semester/year before reporting for training. Other times, especially during major wars, even that wasn’t always guaranteed.
Where on earth did the idea that the draft would be re-implemented ever come from? The draft started in 1940 and was disbanded in 1973…the world has changed hugely since those times. Modern warfare has changed so completely since the 40s, I can’t imagine a draft would be necessary in the near future and there are more reasons why I doubt the draft would ever be implemented again…never say never, but holy cow where did this idea the OP has come from? Perhaps a law could get made (not likely) that woman would also register at age 18 due to all the equal rights activism, but the draft…I’m not betting on it.
I am not betting on the draft either, and if there was one it is likely that the draft would not give the deferrments that were so common in the 1960’s. I suspect the poster, hearing some of the more beligerent talk during the campaign, might be assuming that the US is going to get into a lot more wars and need all the soldiers for it. Only other people proposing it were those upset at how many ways soldiers were fighting in and wanted the draft, with the thought that if anyone with a kid 18 or older faced fighting they wouldn’t be so happy sending people to war …
But I doubt it, the military themselves don’t want it, they prefer professional soldiers motivated to be doing what they are, not a bunch of complaining draftees:).
If the draft is reinstated, I wonder how they will handle the fact that most of the draftees are not fit enough for the military. This is currently a huge problem for military recruiters. People who want to join the military are turned away because they don’t meet the fitness requirements (or are unable to meet these requirements after a time of fitness training). What will the military do with a huge group of unfit draftees.
That said, I doubt that the draft will be reinstated.
Recruiting standards may change:
http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/recruiting-standards-may-change-secdef-says
Thanks for responding, everyone. I hope you are right, and certainly there is a reassuring consensus here. The unpredictability of the new administration, their hawkish talk, and saber-rattling about Iran put some of us on edge to be sure. Thanks again.
There were 2 prior instances of a nationwide drafts.
First one was during the Civil War in 1863 though if one includes the Confederate side, they implemented theirs a year earlier in 1862.
Second one was in 1917 in preparation for the US entry into WWI.
In both instances, there was strong opposition either due to negative effects on those affected and/or because some opponents felt it was contrary to their interpretation of American ideals and a gross infringement of individual rights by the state.
Especially during the Civil War. From those on the Confederate side as they felt it was a form of slavery to the state and thus, contrary to their interpretation of Confederate states rights ideals. Some governors like Georgia’s Joseph E. Brown went so far as to liberally issue critical civil service worker exemptions to men affected by the Confederate draft in order to resist what he considered an usurpation of state prerogatives.
On the Union side, you had anti-war protests, attempts by the Confederate sympathizing Copperheads to undermine the Union cause, and even the infamous 1863 draft riots in NYC which lasted 3 days, caused the deaths of many African-Americans and Abolitionists, and necessitated the use of military force…including Naval gunfire to put down.
Fitness standards have been raised and lowered in history depending on how pressing manpower needs were.
Incidentally, during WWII, ~25% of all draftees called up were declared unfit for service due to medical conditions/stunted growth related to malnutrition due to regional poverty/The Great Depression. This was one of the key factors in the implementation of publicly funded free/reduced school meals program in public K-12 schools after the war.
Thanks cobrat. As far as unfit…a couple months in the service would probably whip a good percentage of kids into shape…but again I am not betting on a draft.
I wish I were as optimistic as some posters here.
Not necessarily. If a given society is influenced/culture enough by a given state and mass media/peer pressure, many such parents would be more than happy to send their kids off to fight.
Some examples from history include Revolutionary France*, French Republics not only for the World Wars…but also its numerous colonial ones, the British empire during both World Wars, Korea, and decolonization period of the '50s/early '60s(When British National Service ended), Prussia/Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, Imperial/Fascist Italy, etc.
Keep in mind that draftee soldiers in the US and other nations have been quite effective when heavily motivated for a cause. This has been shown by Revolutionary France’s/Napoleonic draftee army’s effectiveness in defeating the professional armies of various European nations including the Holy Roman Empire’s and Prussia’s in the late 18th and early 19th centuries and if we want to invoke the US…its armed forces’ abilities to defeat more experienced/battle hardened armies of the Axis powers in WWII.
It is also not necessarily a guarantee against military adventurism as the French Republics’ use of draftees to build and fight its colonialist wars in the 19th and 20th centuries, the British efforts to hold onto their empires/decolonization in the late 40s-'60s, Imperial/Fascist Italy’s efforts at empire building during the late 19th century** and the 1930s in Africa, Imperial Japan’s empire building from the 19th century onward, etc has shown.
- Revolutionary/Napoleonic France was the first nation to implement a modern nationwide draft of practically all male citizens in the late 18th and early 19th centuries.
** During which they were seriously defeated by the Ethiopian Empire at the Battle of Adwa(1896) which they assumed were easy pickings because they were “superior Italians” fighting against “inferior Ethiopians”. A factor in the viciousness of the second Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the 1930’s…especially after they felt the need to resort to using chemical weapons when they found their second attempts at conquest weren’t going quickly enough.
@sylvan8798 I was thinking the same thing.
I was also thinking that this has nothing to do with Imperial Japan or Napoleonic France but :-??
Like I said above 1) the military wouldn’t stand for it. They want volunteers because a draft waters down the quality of their recruits. 2) there is no manpower shortage – we are reducing the force after the cooling of the fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. 3) as a direct result of the lessening of the “hot” wars, budget is in EXTREME focus by all involved. The idea that we suddenly will shift money into tons of new recruits is untenable. I work for the DOD and can tell you the idea of a draft is daft.
I get that post-election a lot of theories are being tossed around due to fear and uncertainty. There may be days of uncertainly ahead – but to ascribe the incoming administration with this idea is crazy talk.
@MatzoBall, over the course of the next four years, I don’t think your fears are overblown. Just looking at this morning’s news prior to coming to CC, and was thinking that cooler heads are not showing up in appointments so far. But it would take a while to unfold and strain the military to that point. You should go ahead and take a gap year. Try to do some good in the world while you are at it.
The military can pick and choose whom they want right now, there is no lack of applicants. Your kid might not be able to get in, even if he or she tried. The thought that nobody wants to be in the military, they are so desperate they will take anybody and force them to serve is an illusion and rather insulting to our professional soldiers.
Now if there’s another huge world war involving millions of soldiers dying? Start worrying. But that does seem a long way off. The other candidate was much more of a hawk than this one.