Great News! We are NOT in a recession!

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<h2>UCLA experts don’t buy recession </h2>

<p>In a contrarian view, the Anderson Forecast focuses on strength in industry and
spending.</p>

<p>By Peter Y. Hong
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer</p>

<p>March 11 2008</p>

<p>Brushing aside conventional wisdom, UCLA economists say California and the
nation will survive the housing slump and job losses without plunging into
recession – although it will still be miserable for many Americans. </p>

<p>The complete article can be viewed at:
[UCLA</a> experts don’t buy recession - Los Angeles Times](<a href=“http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ucla11mar11,0,2796078.story]UCLA”>UCLA experts don't buy recession)</p>

<p>Wow! The same thing the Chairman of the Fed has been saying! Who would have thought! It’s much more fun to believe the media hysteria than those in actual power though :)</p>

<p>Hmmm, interesting… I do not see them mentioning the current oil prices and their effect.</p>

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<p>Maybe oil prices don’t have that much of an effect?</p>

<p>Judge for yourselves. These so called experts are often wrong. Gas prices go up, groceries prices go up, small raises, slow hiring, credit problem, etc…</p>

<p>While national data may indicate that we are not in a “recession”, millions upon millions of our fellow citizens would disagree.</p>

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<p>I.e., for now they’re predicting only one quarter of negative GDP growth, not two (the definition of “recession” being at least two consecutive quarters of falling GDP). I feel so much better about things.</p>

<p>Wow, despite positive news, there are 3 negative posts in a row ^. You guys are tough.</p>

<p>I don’t think anybody denies that the economy is slowing down, but the “sky is falling” rhetoric we have been hearing in the MSM appear to be wrong</p>

<p>So, no recession but I am going to be miserable…any way I look at it, I’m still going to be miserable!</p>

<p>I know the last recession or high tech bubble burst, economist did not call it a recession and it was more like a depression for high tech engineers. I still know several friends of mine that are out of jobs since. I wonder if they are counted in the unemployement rate.</p>

<p>No, they are not. Just the folks officially recieving unemployment benefits are counted. The actual unemployment (and underemployment) rate is higher than the govt. numbers.</p>

<p>It’s called “SPIN”. It’s very common among politicians for the opposite party. A good example is when a program has been getting 5,6,…10% increases in funding each year. Then because of finances, the program is only given a 3% increase in funding. The opposition automatically tries and tell the public that the program is “Being Cut”. It’s not being cut, the INCREASE just isn’t as much as it was in the past.</p>

<p>Same goes with the economy. People see a month of 65000 less jobs and they claim that unemployment is rising. They don’t understand economics at all. They don’t understand season employment. They don’t understand that you don’t just base employment and economic issues on a month to month basis. As of last month, our unemployment rate is 4.8%. But if people don’t know what and how CPI, average hourly earnings, PPI, CCI, productivity and import price index work, then they have no idea. Our growth has been very high for the last few years. It just doesn’t happen to be rising at the same rate it has been. There’s a major different between a slow down and a recession. </p>

<p>The worst part is that people don’t understand that a recession can, and most times is a very good thing for the economy and country. The problem is if the recession goes to far and becomes a “depression”. Recessions lower prices and brings the day to day costs back in line with what consumers can afford. When the economy is TOO HOT, unemployment is extremely low, many things happen. Wages go up. (Not necessarily good because it also raises the price of goods and services to make up for the increase in labor and services). With more disposable cash, supply go lower than demand. Prices keep going up and it turns into “Inflation”. Both extreme inflation and recession is bad for the average citizen. Either direction can cause a snowball affect. </p>

<p>The problem however is that many people don’t understand economics and they base their opinions solely on their emotions when they pay $3.00 a gallon for gas or $4 a gallon for milk. They don’t understand how EVERYTHING interacts with each other. I.e. We go haywire on the production of ethanol. We force the price of gasoline to go down due to supply and demand. However, the price of wheat, cattle, dairy products, bread, etc… go up because the supply of materials grown for ethanol has changed the production for other uses. There are pros and cons to a recession and inflation. When the economy goes too far to one side or the other, you need the other side to counter it. That’s why the minimum wage shouldn’t be increased. Those who know how economics work, realize that the concept of a minimum wage is bad. You take 5 workers making $5.15 an hour and you raise them to $7.00 an hour. As the employer, your expenses for employees just went up 20%. So, you raise your goods and services by 20% to break even to where you were. What good is that. But it’s not even that simple. Because if you do have minimum wage employees, and you give them a pay raise, then those making more than minimum wage will expect a pay raise. So, even though you think your costs only went up 20% for your 5 people now making $7 an hour, we haven’t considered that many of the material, ingredients, etc… that this service or product performs, has also gone up because their providers raised their prices also to make up for their increases. So, that simple little 20% increase in minimum wage, could lead to the consumer paying more like 30-40% of an increase. Increases are not linear across the board. But the consumer feels it. Then again, minimum wage was NOT MEANT to be a job to make a living on. It was designed for entry level workers learning skills and gaining experience. So, the argument of not being able to make a living on minimum wage doesn’t cut it. You aren’t suppose to.</p>

<p>[Business</a> & Technology | Seattle gas prices climb as national average hits record | Seattle Times Newspaper](<a href=“http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004273729_gas11.html]Business”>http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004273729_gas11.html)</p>

<p>Surcharges for distance are also being added onto locally delivered materials.</p>

<p>Costs are up- wages are not</p>

<p>[Warren</a> Buffet thinks we are in a recession | TheNewsTribune.com | Tacoma, WA](<a href=“http://www.thenewstribune.com/1032/story/299247.html]Warren”>http://www.thenewstribune.com/1032/story/299247.html)</p>

<p>[Odds</a> are, U.S. is in a recession - MarketWatch](<a href=“http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/odds-us-recession/story.aspx?guid={80BE41BE-BCF3-4EFB-82F7-D2649FB6B67A}]Odds”>Odds are, U.S. is in a recession - MarketWatch)</p>

<p>Costs are up- wages are not</p>

<p>Yes, and if the wages went up it snowballs and then it’s called “Inflation”.</p>

<p>ok
but if you have goods & services inc utility costs going up for years and wages stagnating what is it called?</p>

<p>^Stagflation.</p>

<p>If it’s not a recession then why does the fed lower interest so many times in the last 6 months and keep on lowering.</p>

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<p>It’s not a recession, why? Because we haven’t had 2 quarters of decreasing GDP. The fed is doing everything it can to keep us from going into a recession, which includes lowering interest rates (so people spend more $). The fed chairmen said we aren’t going into a recession, just a slowdown. I’ll trust the chairmen of the fed over CC posters, unfortunately some people will not</p>

<p>I believe the last Fed chairman before Benanke also recommended mortgage borrowers to go with ARMs. Look at what happens to them. I express my opinion as I see it, please do no drag Columbia University in this. I did not say we have a recession but all the signs are pointing toward one. Please be nice, we’re only discussing. I do expect better manner out of you, no personal attach or no LAX attack either.</p>

<p>There may be some technical definition of “recession” but what I see happening is stuff like:</p>

<p>a) my relative who’s lost his business, about 10 stores selling stuff people want but don’t need. sales plummeted to nothing in 07 (small margin business) and…belly up. close all stores, all employees lose jobs.</p>

<p>b) two restaurants near our house, one open about 10 years, closed and out of business; article in newspaper about restaurant industry on hard times, people can’t afford to eat out anymore, dinner business suffers in particular;</p>

<p>c) article in today’s paper about rash of store closures in malls across country (Sharper Image, Bombay Co.); bankruptcy, cut backs, lots of vacancies in malls (no slowdown at Walmart and Target).</p>

<p>d) other tell tale signs I can’t think of right now.</p>

<p>Maybe the technical term is “slowdown” but right now my relative is out of work, his wife can’t find a job, and he’ll vote for whoever will give him health insurance.</p>