Do you think half of all colleges will close in the next decade? Are college cannibalizing themselves through high tuition, administrative cost, high professor salaries and expensive building projects?
Here is the Inside Higher Ed link: https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/article/2017/04/28/clay-christensen-sticks-predictions-massive-college-closures
I think this “online education as college disruptor” theory would be more compelling if they could show some evidence of it starting to happen already.
A friend of mine predicted the same thing about 5 years ago, although I think that he didn’t name a time line and was thinking more like 20 years.
Clearly there is a squeeze hitting universities and colleges. The big name schools can get by because they will find someone who is willing to pay. Schools with huge endowments will get by because they can rely on their endowments if they run into hard times (although most high endowment schools are also highly ranked).
I am seeing an increasing number of very strong students attend in-state public universities. I am seeing many very strong graduates come out of in-state public universities. At least in my experience some employers are already noticing.
This might be an example of someone making a prediction which is intentionally exaggerated to get our attention, but which is very much in the right direction.
There are some important aspects of education which online colleges just can’t offer so meanings of education may change entirely.
According to https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2016/06/10/40-percent-of-u-s-colleges-enroll-fewer-than-1000-students/ , “about 40 percent of American colleges enroll 1,000 or fewer students”. The article also says that these colleges have lost about 5% of their enrollment since 2010 (through 2016 when the article was written), while colleges over 10,000 students have grown slightly.
So it is certainly possible that a large number of small colleges are in danger of closing, even though such closings may not reduce the capacity by that much (closing 40% of the colleges which are the ones under 1,000 students will reduce capacity by much less than 40%).
US Dept. of Education & Moody’s Investor Services maintain that college closings will triple while mergers double “in the coming years” according to the MSNBC piece cited in the original post in this thread.
Also attuned to MBA programs which are pricing themselves out-of-reach for most aspirants. Large corps. offer in house universities like Strayer University & utilize University of Phoenix (just check out Morgan Stanley for number of hires & employees with University of Phoenix degrees).
The top 10 MBA full time 2 year programs cost over $200,000 for tuition, fees, room & board in addition to students sacrificing two years of income in order to attend school. Total cost = approximately $400,000 for a full time MBA from a top program when lost opportunity cost (lost wages).
It’s going to come down to large endowments, federal subsidies, alumni donations and high EFC families to save colleges. It’s easy to guess which schools will win survival of the fittest.
Elite schools in America are extremely well endowed. Interestingly 25 highest ranked institutions on Forbes’s top schools list have an endowment of more than $200 billion which makes more than 40% of all American endowments.
Obviously state schools, at least flagships have nothing to worry about either, tax payers will support them.
Lots of colleges have collapsed over the years, and lots of still-functioning colleges have closed down programs. Your degree will not magically lose its value if your college vanishes after you graduate. What will matter is the fact that you did complete your degree, and to a certain extent, where you completed it. You will even still be able to request copies of your transcript forever because those records will be transferred to another institution that will have the responsibility to maintain those records. When people learn that your college collapsed, the most likely response will be, “Gee that’s sad. That was a great place!”
Whether or not you should go to college now, or ever, is a whole different question. So put some thought to other ways to get the training you might need for a job you could be happy in. One of the happiest guys I know is a pilot on the Mississippi River. That career does not require a college education, or even a formal apprenticeship program. People who are interested get a job on a crew and work their way up with hands-on informal apprenticeships that help them prepare for the licansing exams.
The highest risk colleges are likely to be less selective small private colleges.
Forbes has financial strength ratings of private colleges:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2017/08/02/2017-college-financial-grades-how-fit-is-your-school/
Based on the Forbes article, and assuming that the colleges in danger of closing are the ones with the D and D- grades, it looks closer to 1/4 that 1/2. Moreover, as more colleges close, the enrollment in the remaining colleges increases. So as some close, the situation of the remaining colleges will improve.
Also, many of those schools are religious schools, which may be bailed out by their mother religion. So Yeshivath Viznitz, with a C- grade, is the Yeshivah of the Chassidic dynasty of Viznitz, and they will not let it close. If its funds start running out, the Rebbe will run a fund raiser, ans the money will come. I’m not so sure about the different Dominican universities, but if there is a Catholic order with a LOT of money, it’s the Dominicans.
“Less people are enrolling in college and their are many high paying jobs that don’t require a degree.“
So much wrong here it’s hard to know where to begin.
You are correct that college isn’t appropriate for some people.
College is not the right path for everyone, that’s definitely true. There are some well paying jobs that don’t require a degree - that’s true too - but many/most non-college jobs aren’t exactly high paying - at least, not where we live. Be sure you are satisfied with the pay for the job you are interested in. Be sure too that the job has openings. Some of the high paying jobs mentioned on cc a lot (like electrician) are super competitive to get into in our area. One more or less has to be related to someone already in the union. Other jobs paying $12 - $17 an hour have “help wanted” signs for things like welders, etc, so you’d be good to go there if you can get your welding certificate at school or afterward.
BUT, if you think you’re going to get a “needs college” job in the next handful of years because many colleges may close in the next 20, I’d rethink that. I don’t see it happening. With plenty of people opting to go to college, places don’t need to relax that checked box as of yet. I still see adults who have hit a ceiling returning to school to get a degree in order to advance in their jobs. There will still be college grads in 20 years too. 1/4 to 1/2 closing mean the rest stay open. Chances are, some of those will increase.
Consider yourself - your likes/dislikes, etc - and choose the path that fits you the best.
You may use your college degree in your working life (or st least the fact that you have one) for the next 50 years. That’s too long into the future to try to make sure you graduate from a college that will still exist. And as others have said, even if it doesn’t, it doesn’t make your degree worthless.
That said, there are good reasons to to try to minimise the risk that the college will while you’re still there, possibly severely disrupting your education, or shortly after you have graduated, possibly disrupting your job search or graduate school applications. It probably will not matter once you are established in a career, but while you are still being judged on the education you have completed? It’s just not a good look.
It’s probably a good idea to stay away from any school that has a D ranking in the Forbes lists (in fact, the link is from 2017 and you may find that a number of the D-list colleges have since folded) and look hard at C ranked colleges. Agree that strong religious backing, particularly from a large organization with several schools, may help avoid closures, or at least minimise disruption.
A study has found (not sure if I can link but googling small private colleges closing will find you lots of articles) a number of high risk factors that you can eliminate easily: small private colleges with fewer than 1000 students (the healthiest size appears to be 2000 to 3000 students), small private colleges in New England and the Midwest with regional applicant pools because of declining populations. Also easy to find out: yield and retention rates (bad customer targeting and service), steadily declining enrolment.
So far, top privates with national applicant pools are doing fine, wherever they are. State flagships and strong regional state schools popular among their applicant base won’t close, either. If long term viability of your alma mater is an issue you care about in your college search (and I don’t think it’s a Stupid Reason at all, to reference a popular thread) create your list among those.
From a European perspective, I’d also second those PPs who suggest looking first at what it make you happy to be doing for the rest of your life, and evaluate what you will need to do to get there, which may be college now, or college later, or may be another strategy entirely - reverse engineering the process. I do realise that that is a foreign way of going about it, but it’s actually the international norm, and a perfectly valid strategy for you to choose.
It’s your life. Don’t make your choices depending on others.
This is from an article I recently read. So will the value of my college degree even matter down the road? I’m trying to get motivated to go to college, but I’m starting to think it’s pointless. Less people are enrolling in college and their are many high paying jobs that don’t require a degree. Is it even worth the thousands of dollars if my future college might financially collapse?
I know most private high schools and colleges are very concerned about the US population decline from 2008 forward. I think it will affect less selective private institutions and has already in MA. So many have already shuttered and more on the cusp. I do think the elite colleges with mega billion dollar endowments will always be there but they will increasingly be competing for the same pool of applicants and for full payers. Tuition and fees at those are at 74k now, how high will it go? 100k per year? More?
Technological, demographic, and affordability trends all point toward the same direction: many colleges won’t survive. Many would prefer a great lecture by a great professor online over a mediocre lecture by an average lecturer in a classroom.
@waverlywizzard : Agree that elite schools with multi-billion dollar endowments will “always be there”, but think that the pool of applicants can be expanded by accepting more foreign students.
@1NJParent : Interesting thought, but I think that the social aspect of an on-campus college experience is very important for those aged 18 to 24.
Since a very large percentage of college students (including traditional age ones) are commuter students attending local (to where they lived before college) colleges, the on-campus experience may only be a factor for the relatively few attending more selective colleges away from where they lived before college.
Thanks! Looks like my colleges are good financially
Please explain…