@Itisatruth , I love your #5 above! That’s how I wanted to process this as well. FWIW, our school CC recommended the cone of silence approach with other parents. Also recommended the weekly meeting.
Get the CTCL book, it has excellent summaries of each school. Read it from cover to cover and eliminate those that are geographically out of bounds. The CTCL website (check it out) recently added a couple of schools. They also go on a road show and have their own college fair so you might catch them somewhere near you. Lots of them offer merit scholarships.
@allyphoe well that’s the $100,000 question for sure. (Or maybe we should call it the $260,000 question ouch.) Two of the schools under consideration for that slot are Pitt (in state) and Clark U. Both have 55% acceptance rates.
Unlike places like MHC and BMC where the acceptance data in Naviance are thin for her HS, there is a lot of data for Pitt as 20-30 kids apply each year from her school and virtually everyone is accepted. The very few waitlists and rejects are way down in the lower left of the scatterplot. I don’t think demonstrated interest or likelihood of attending makes a difference (i.e., there’s no yield protection going on), and you can apply in July for an early fall notification, so we will get a signal in Sept either way. (I should say that none of that is true for the Honors College, just for regular Arts & Sciences admission).
Clark has less data in Naviance and demonstrated interest, fit, and yield protection may play a bigger role than at Pittt, but again she looks to be at the higher end stats-wise of their admitted and matriculated students. She can also apply EA.
Helpful to write this out because I see that the other two schools on her safety list (Sarah Lawrence and Bard) have comparable admit rates as Pitt & Clark (52% and 56% respectively) so it’s not totally clear why I’m thinking of Pitt & Clark in that >90% category but SLC & Bard just in the “regular” safety pile (which her GC defines as “kid has >50% chance of admission” Whaaaatttt?!?). I think I’m intuiting more uncertainty and admission surprises with SLC and Bard this year, increased importance of fit and demonstrated interest, and maybe a lower acceptance rate this year than in previous years. Also, all 4 schools have EA or rolling plans, so I guess there is a scenario where she has none of those in hand by late Dec and has to scramble to add a couple of more apps before Jan. Ugh. But she is very very very likely to have a Pitt acceptance much earlier than that.
Long-winded answer to a really important question! I’m open to other assessment strategies!
Thanks @Theoden (and love the handle!). We’re huge CTCL fans and D20’s list currently includes 2 (Reed and Bard) and hopefully adding a 3rd (Clark). She’s visited another (St Olaf) and we live pretty close to 5 more (the Mid-Atlantic cluster). Definitely wish more families looked more closely at this list!
I’m so impressed with your meeting strategy and your principles! I’d read somewhere about how having a meeting like that can help you enjoy each other more during the last year so that all conversations aren’t just consumed by the college app process. I honestly just don’t know if I can be that disciplined and hold everything in for a week! But sadly I know that the weeks fly by faster and faster so it probably wouldn’t be as difficult as I’m imagining. Maybe I’ll try to commit to one meeting and one mini-meeting/check in. 
And I especially like number 5. It should be the student’s decision about what is shared. Plus for us it would reduce the comments like “she wants to leave Texas to go that far away?!” and “she doesn’t REALLY want to go where it’s cold and snows a lot; she’ll regret that,” which we already get when we’ve mentioned some of the schools we’ve visited. I know most people are well-intentioned with their comments and just curious with their questions, and I admit that I was interested in where my friends’ kids were applying last year because I’ve know some of the kids since they were babies. I was excited for them! But the kids and parents who are living that process should be allowed as much privacy as they like without judgment.
@Itisatruth Yeah - I like the handle too. 
Bates is awesome (my alma mater). Though it’s getting super selective… They’ve elevated themselves into that stratospheric “Hidden Ivy” category. No Greek life, friendly student body, Great academics. I think most of CTCL schools would be safeties your daughter would love to attend. Some of them, like Allegheny, can be quite rigorous. Their students get Fullbrights (sure, not as many as the hidden Ivy’s but your daughter would be coming in at highest percentile at the CTCL schools and would be getting the attention and push that would make her super-achieve). Aside from the progressive, LGBTQ+ vibe that matters to your daughter, the things that matter to you, aside from will she be happy and have great experiences, probably are…can she get a job or get into a solid grad school after 4 yrs at a LAC? Lot’s of the CTCL schools are really good with internships, study abroad, research, career prep and excellent grad school admittance rates. The only CTCL school I sensed that was more “ivory tower” was Bard. I think their motto is “Shhh…people are thinking.”
We’ve done the 3rd weekly 20-min Tues evening college meeting, and I’m even getting better about NOT mentioning anything college-related during the rest of the week. Today was the first day to ask teachers for college rec letters and D20 was hoping to ask math teacher but fled the classroom before screwing up her courage. Still haven’t gotten her to try the Corsava card sort thing, it’s getting rolled over each week on the To Do list. Also trying to nudge/noodge her to get at least BMC and Barnard interviews scheduled as she can do those as solo day trips from our house. Need to squeeze in visits to the “last” (??) 4 schools we’re encouraging her to see – Bates, Conn, Pitt, Clark.
No more 5-day weeks! Junior year almost in the can…
I recommend New College of Florida. It is one of the Colleges that Change Lives, it’s an LAC in Sarasota, Florida. It’s also an honors college.
Thanks, @allhailcorporate! D20 is sticking pretty firmly with the 5-hours-drive-from-home rule for now, which sadly knocks out about 2/3rds of the CTCL list…(Of course, she also has 2 schools further from home than that on her list, so…hmmmm…)
D20 did the Corsava deck sort exercise (link on my report back below) and also scheduled an interview at a local school (scheduled herself, and will attend herself! Yay!). We meet as a family with her college counselor on Wed – first and only family meeting. Hoping to nail down the question of the “super safety” with him. She’s currently thinking that Pitt will be her super safety, and is keen to drop Clark Conn and Bates from the “mom would still like you to visit” list. I’m still convinced that she would like those 3 more than other schools currently on her likely, match, and reach lists respectively but list inertia has settled in!
2 LOR requests have been issued and accepted. Prom and 2 SAT subjects tests on June 1 (not in that order), 2 finals on June 4, then she’s basically done with junior year! I’m hoping she gets maybe 3 interview visits done on various no-exam days off. She goes right up to staff training at camp for a week after school is out but then home for 2 weeks for some chill summer art classes and, I hope, some initial pokes/brainstorms at essay.
Corsava sort experience:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/2142524-has-anyone-or-their-kid-tried-the-corsava-cards-to-hone-college-list.html#latest
I don’t agree that Pitt would be a super safety with a 1300 PSAT.
If she raises her score then she might have a good chance of admission but looking at full pay, unless she increases the scores by a lot and gets some merit.
I would recommend IUP Cook Honors college, she might get merit there.
She could look at Allegheny College.
@mommdc OP’s daughter has a 33 ACT, which roughly correlates to a 1460 SAT.
Following up on a comment from earlier in the thread:
“Thanks for the Allegheny suggestion @blue1516 - it was on a “top 50 best places for Greek life” list which was an easy drop for my D.”
I think the “Top 50” is definitely misleading here and you’d want to visit that website (bestcollegereviews.org) to take the comment in context. My S will be attending Allegheny in the fall and he was NOT looking for a frat school. Only 30% of students are members and philanthropy is crucial to Allegheny’s Greek life: collectively, chapters complete over 7,000 hours of community service each year.
Sorry, I just read the first page.
With a 33 ACT there is a possibility for merit at Pitt, but not a given.
@mommdc Not looking for merit at Pitt, just a spot. After reading through Pitt honors/merit thread this year, it’s clear that’s neither is a shoe-in for D20, but regular admission should be. That’s our definition of super-safety, doesn’t take into account merit prob.
Allegheny just never made it onto any versions of D’s list, not sure why.
Do any of her schools have rolling admissions? Having a very early acceptance can relieve a LOT of stress. You are going to college!
She can apply to Pitt as early as July and have a decision in the fall; three others have EA. Not at all sure she will have an ED (or ED2) pick although at least one of her top choices (Barnard) has 3x acceptance rate for ED vs RD. Ugh.
D20 visited Pitt today and really liked it! Did the info session and tour on her own (my husband had a business trip to Pittsburgh so she tagged along) and said she could definitely see herself there. So, I think our “super safety” slot is filled. I’m hoping she might drop a couple of schools from her list that she likes less than Pitt - 6 or 7 apps sounds better to me than 8 or 9.
Family meeting with GC was last week - I already whinged about it on the 2020 parents thread. Pretty useless. The college spreadsheet now has two separate columns for GC rating (Likely, Target, Reach) and Mom rating. We disagree on several!
SAT2s came and went - she said Latin was a disaster but Lit was ok. Testing done! 2 exams done, prom over, just a few more random days of school next week.
She agreed that it would be good to sign up for the College Essay Guy’s video course (with live sessions) so she’ll start tackling that next week and hope to chip away at the essays this summer.
I’m glad she liked Pitt!
D20 had Bryn Mawr interview yesterday - went well! She has scheduled 2 more for late July. Packing for (device-free! Yay!) camp today, she will take some of the exercises from College Essay Guy printed out on paper to work on during downtime. She is excited to start working on Pitt app in a few weeks. All good!