I think that Michigan State is an extremely likely admit and Michigan is a likely admit. The rest of the schools I’d categorize as low probability (sub-20%) for your son, not because he’s not a great applicant, but because those schools are so extremely popular and competitive amongst top students.
U. of Rochester was the first school that came to mind and is probably a toss-up for your kid (though closer to the likely side). Seconding Ithaca, which would also make a great extremely likely admit for this kid. Depending on the humanities major, he may want to check out Rochester Institute of Technology (probably an extremely likely admit). Fordham should definitely be checked out, and I’m seconding the suggestion of Wesleyan, too. Below are how I’d categorize the additional suggestions I made.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
- Ithaca (NY): About 4600 undergrads
- Loyola Chicago (IL): About 12k undergrads
- Rochester Institute of Technology (NY): About 14k undergrads
Likely (60-79%)
- Fordham (NY): About 10k undergrads
Toss-Up (40-59%)
- U. of Rochester (NY): About 6800 undergrads
Lower Probability (20-39%)
Low Probability (less than 20%)
- Wesleyan (CT): About 3100 undergrads, but really seems like it’d be a good fit apart from the size. Although it’s in the same low probability category as most of the reaches in your original list, getting an admit to Wesleyan would probably be 2-3x easier than at most of the colleges on the reach section of your list.