Help with the final list reach/target/safety

Thank you. We haven’t looked at the cal states much at all, but I am aware of slo and the quality reputation, did not know specifically about chemistry, though. Long Beach is super close and a good school, that’s why it came to mind first.
She just took the SAT in August, just got scores back last week, so not sure of the timeline for national merit.
Thank you for your help!