Hope For The Deferred

<p>Quoting an earlier post of mine:</p>

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Here are some precise numbers I found from a post made by tokenadult back in Dec. 2004 (had to do a bit of googling to find them, but here they are):</p>

<p>tokenadult posted a quote that was on Harvard's website, back when they still had EA. </p>

<p>"Early Action applicants have, on average, stronger admissions credentials than regular applicants. In each of the several recent years, Harvard has admitted between 2,000 and 2,100 applicants total. Of these, 900 to 1,200 were admitted in mid-December and - reflecting early candidates' strength - another 85 to nearly 250 early applicants were admitted in the spring after having been deferred in mid-December. There is no incentive whatsoever for Early Action colleges to admit weaker candidates early and then have to reject stronger Regular Action candidates. Diminishing the quality of the student body would be antithetical to the goals of any institution."</p>

<p>Going by these numbers (i.e. 900-1,200 accepted EA), it looks like this year Harvard accepted fewer people to leave more room for the RD candidates. The 85-250 figure for the deferred --> accepted people was the only thing I could find. I don't know how this year will turn out, so I'll just assume that figure will remain the same...

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<p>So it is possible to be accepted after being deferred, even though the numbers aren't high. Just focus your energy on your RD apps now, and send Harvard an update with midyear grades/new awards to show your continued interest. Remember, it's not over until it's over!</p>

<p>If other posts are correct, the. We have a 7% chance to get in, and if you look at the results, every group is a separate, proportional pool. So, expect about 150 deferred people to get in.</p>

<p>
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If other posts are correct, the. We have a 7% chance to get in, and if you look at the results, every group is a separate, proportional pool. So, expect about 150 deferred people to get in.

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<p>I think 7% is optimistic because of that 18% early admit rate. The way I see the numbers, the chance of a typical applicant getting in RD is Harvard this year is 4% or lower. If you assume the total pool is the same as last year (35,000), with same total admits (2110), then around 1340 will be admitted RD, for an RD admit rate of 3.9%. The RD odds look better at Princeton (4.7%), and best at Yale (5.9%), which took about a hundred fewer students and rejected about 600 more from the early pool than Harvard. </p>

<p>If anything, the assumptions about the total size of the RD pools are probably conservative. If the pools get bigger again this year, than the RD chances will be even lower.</p>

<p>I don't like to rain on anyone's parade, but realistically it makes sense for most applicants to find good backup choices.</p>

<p>I actually think RD will only be marginally more difficult than last year's for unhooked/small-hook applicants--if you do the calculations and estimate that 200 of the 722 admitted early this year were athletic recruits, and another 30 (conservative estimate) were important legacies (I am referring to multi-generational legacies, people whose parents donate large sums of money every year or so, etc.) or were of very influential background that Harvard HAD to accept, then that leaves 722 - 230 = 492 spots available. These are people who would have been accepted last year as well, so 2110 accepted - 492 definite admits = 1618 spots left for "normal" applicants. 1618 spots / 35,000 total applicants = 4.6% admit rate. Going by predictions of RD rates for this year of 4-5%, this seems about the same. Someone check me on this, though.</p>

<p>Oops I take that back, the number of early admits was 772, so I actually meant 4.48% instead of 4.6%, but it still backs up my statement that RD this year might only be marginally more difficult than last year's, if at all.</p>

<p>Ok, let's that the number of applicants stays the same (35000), the number of seats in the college stays constant (according to my letter, 1650), and that the number of students who accept their seats stays roughly the same (90% for EA Admits and ~78% for Regular Admits)</p>

<p>So out of 772 EA Admits 695 will accept (.9 * 772 = 694.8 = 695).
Then 1650 - 695 = 955 spots that have to be filled though the Regular Decision pool.
So then roughly 1225 applicants will be accepted (955 / .78 = 1225)
That gives us a Regular Admit Rate of 3.6% (1225 / 34000 = 0.0360. It's out of 34000 because roughly 1000 people were accepted or rejected in the Early Application round)</p>

<p>That's a really dire number... 3.6%...</p>

<p>I think the numbers are much lower than that. For this year's SCEA, this is the likely construction of the class admitted so far based on information released by Harvard:</p>

<p>African American: 74 (9.6%)
Latino: 76 (9.9%)
Asian: 147 (19%)
Native American: 13 (1.7%)
Legacy: 165 (estimated based on published information that legacies make up approx. 13% of every class. Assumed that 2/3 of legacies applied SCEA)
Athletes: 200</p>

<p>Total hooked students admitted under SCEA was at a minimum 675, which leaves the slots available for non-hooked, non ethnic minorities at less than 100. 100 is actually a very optimistic number, and the real number is probably much lower, especially if more than 200 athletic letters went out. Not to mention other "soft" hooks such as the top students at top feeder schools who do not fall into above categories, students at local high schools (gotta show the love to the neighbors), faculty kids, kids of famous people, non legacy developmentals, world class math, musics and other superstars, etc. BTW, there is not much crossover between groups - the largest group - athletes - is comprised almost completely of white students.</p>

<p>Guyz, your all doin it rong. Itz 2.0x10^-12%. I wuld show my calculacians, but CC wuld overload.</p>

<p>(On a serious note, if this downward trend from year to year continues, ^ may come true very, very soon, no?) <em>sigh</em></p>

<p>Yield will be slightly lower than that, so I think about 1380 will be admitted RD. Should be about 400 spots for non-hooked folks.</p>

<p>Just did some number-crunching! This is what I found: </p>

<p>Harvard’s website says they are 12% African-American, 12% Hispanic, and 2% Native American. This means that out of a class of 1660, 199 are African-American, 199 are Hispanic, and 33 are Native American. If 13% of a class is made up of legacies, that means there are 216 legacies. 199 + 199 + 33 + 216 = 647 hooked matriculated students. If we assume the 78% matriculation rate of the class as a whole is true of the hooked applicants, we get 647 / .78 = 829 hooked admits. Then + 200 athletic recruits = 1029 hooked/recruited admits. Out of 2110 total admitted students, that means there are only 1081 unhooked admits. 1081 / 35,000 total applicants = 3.09% unhooked admit rate last year. </p>

<p>For this year, if we multiply all the SCEA hooked admittances by .9, which is generally the rate at which early applicants matriculate, we get 67 African-Americans, 68 Latinos, 12 Native Americans. I’m keeping the 165 legacies the same because I feel like they would probably all matriculate. That’s 312 hooked students who will matriculate. Out of 647 hooked matriculated students, that means there are 335 unhooked to matriculate. 1660 total admits – 335 hooked – 200 athletes = 1125 open unhooked spots in the class. If you subtract the URMs, legacies, and recruits from the 772 admitted early, you get 244 unhooked applicants admitted early. 244 * .9 = 220 who will actually matriculate. 1125 open unhooked spots in the class – 220 taken by SCEA admits = 905. 905 / .78 = 1160 unhooked admits. 1160 / 33,593 (33,593 because it’s 35,000 – 772 accepted – 546 rejected – 89 incomplete/withdrawn/etc.) = 0.345%. That's larger than the 3.09% rate last year...</p>

<p>What do you guys think?? Is this accurate?</p>

<p>It is accurate if you add 19% Asian to the mix - Harvard consistently admits around 20% Asians, so it is considered a hook in that the group occupies its own predetermined slot.</p>