<p>I think the lower down the selectivity scale you go, the more college decisions can be predicted based on stats, so the chancing at cappex may be reasonable. I think the less-selective schools admit or deny based on stats, occasionally rejecting someone with admit-level stats because of red flags elsewhere in the app (such as serious disciplinary issues) and occasionally reaching down to admit kids with either “hooks” or special qualities that are evident from the essays and recommendations.</p>