<p>So… does anybody here know the numbers?
Is that a more reliable method of guessing your chances than leaving it to general impressions and subjective “reach/fit/in” answers?</p>
<p>Basically I would come up with a fraction (# of students admitted per year into top schools)/(class size) to try and come up with a general difficulty for my year.</p>
<p>… or am I just horribly wrong altogether…?</p>
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<p>Therein lies your first mistake, giving undue value to Chances threads which are mainly answered by HS students with no experience in college admissions.</p>
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<p>No number needed, assume that competition will be extremely high at the selective schools and make your list accordingly.</p>
<p>^ What entomom said. Here is my FAQ on the subject: </p>
<p>DEMOGRAPHICS</p>
<p>Population trends in the United States are not the only issue influencing the competitiveness of college admission here. The children already born show us what the expected number of high school students are in various years, but the number of high school students in the United States, which is expected to begin declining in a few years, isn’t the whole story.</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/ed...nted=2&_r=1&hp[/url]”>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/ed...nted=2&_r=1&hp</a></p>
<p>First of all, if more students who begin high school go on to college, there will be more applicants to college even with a declining number of high school students. And that is the trend in the United States and worldwide.</p>
<p>Second, colleges in the United States accept applications from all over the world, so it is quite possible that demographic trends in the United States will not be the main influence on how many students apply to college. The cohorts of high-school-age students are still increasing in size in some countries (NOT most of Europe).</p>
<p>Third, even if the number of applicants to colleges overall stays the same, or even declines, the number of applicants to the most competitive colleges may still increase. The trend around the world is a “flight to quality” of students trying to get into the best college they can in increasing numbers, and increasing their consensus about which colleges to put at the top of their application lists. I do not expect college admission to be any easier for my youngest child than for my oldest child, even though she is part of a smaller birth cohort in the United States.</p>
<p>And now I would add to this that at the very most selective colleges that are maintaining generous financial aid plans even after a financial crisis and a recession, next year’s (and the following year’s) crush of applicants will be larger than ever. When colleges that are already acknowledged to be great colleges start reducing their net cost down to what the majority of families in the United States can afford, those colleges will receive more applications from all parts of the United States, and very likely from all over the world.</p>
<p>Thanks to both entomom and tokenadult!</p>
<p>You make an excellent point about the number of applicants being independent to the number of high school students.</p>
<p>Sorry, I was unable to open the NY Times article since the link got abbreviated… but after looking around online some more I definitely feel much more informed on the subject.</p>