So survey data I have seen indicates far fewer prospective college students actually use the US News rankings, or indeed even know much about how the US News ranks various colleges, than some seem to assume.
Of course Vanderbilt might have reason to be worried about decisions at the margins of its particular potential demand pool–I would have no way to know differently. But the margins of Vanderbilt’s potential demand pool are not necessarily representative of a large portion of prospective college students overall.
And then among the general public, I suspect very few people who have not been recently involved in applying for colleges would know anything about the US News rankings in any detail. Again, surveys I have seen about which colleges people actually know about quickly depart from the US News rankings. Like, obviously people know about Harvard and maybe a handful of others. But after that, large public universities, and not necessarily the ones US News ranks highest, start dominating, which I think is probably related to sports.
I note people I encounter sometimes basically talk about the US News rankings as if they were a popular survey. This is one of those things that basically has a methodology answer: there is no popular survey component to the US News rankings. And I again think if you actually tried such a thing, it would quickly reveal most people don’t have any sort of opinion at all about most colleges.
But in any event, in that post I was describing what I hoped I could sometimes do for some individuals with whom I was having direct conversations. I recognize that is not going to change the entire landscape of how people make college choices, but perhaps it will help those specific individuals better understand their options.
And in fact, I agree that most prospective college students don’t need that particular sort of discussion since they are not starting from that perspective in the first place. It is only in certain online communities that I find a lot of kids and sometimes parents who might, say, find it a relief to learn that some of the most globally prominent research universities in the US are not “Reach for everyone” sorts of colleges.
Based on my own experiences at a fancy college and then hearing lots of stories over the years, I would guess the most common factors include:
-
some form of homesickness/culture shock;
-
lack of adequate preparation; and
-
general scholastic burnout.
Obviously all those can happen at any sort of college, but I do think “dream schools” based on things like generic rankings, trying to impress peers, and so on can increase the odds of any of those for a given kid.