Is it just by looking at the median GPA’s and test scores of the previous freshman class? My son comes from a large highly rated school in one of the best school districts in California and I see in the last 5 years their students have gotten in UC schools with 3.5’s. So, I’m confused on how to gauge a safe vs reach school.
When I was helping my son’s with their college list, safeties were schools where their Stats were above the 75th percentile for GPA/test scores. Matches around 50th percentile and above and Reaches at 25th percentile and below. This does not however take into account the impact of EC’s and essays along with intended major since the more competitive majors will require higher Stats but it is a good guideline. I looked up all the common dataset information for each school and made a spreadsheet using these Stats against my son’s. We were able to predict pretty accurately their chances at an acceptance.
Both son’s wanted to stay in CA. so we focused on CSU’s and UC’s. CSU’s are far easier to predict since they rely on GPA/test scores for their eligibility index. UC’s are more difficult since EC’s and essays will be considered. A UC GPA of 3.5 is a good GPA but mostly likely only get you an acceptance at UCM/UCR and UCSC unless you have some amazing essays or EC’s. Take a look at some of the admitted UC threads and waitlisted threads this year to get a good idea of what it takes. Also the common dataset’s for the UC’s will use unweighted GPA while most of the UC Freshman profile Stats use the UC weighted GPA. http://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/
Also, using the most recent data will be far more accurate than the last 5 years. Much has changed just in the last 2 years, since my son’s have applied.
Wow! Thanks!
IMHO a true safety should have an admit rate around 60% or even greater, in addition to your stats being above the 75th percentile.
If your HS has Naviance that can help you to see admissions decisions of kids from your school.
I would look at the range (50 percentile) for SAT/ACT/ and GPA first. If you’re not in the range or you are barely inside the range, it’s a reach. If I was square in the middle, it’s a match. And if I was high in the range or beyond the range, it could be the FIRST step to being a safety.
There are three qualifications to finding a safety school. First step is making it in number wise. Second step is looking at the admissions criteria and acceptance rate to see how selective the school is. School has to seem rather “accepting” in its criteria/curriculum recommendations (how many years of subjects etc.) and has to have 50+% acceptance rate. In other words, it should be “You’re pretty much getting in. If you don’t, there’s something wrong” type of deal. Third step is having it be financially affordable. Whether this be through merit scholarships or need-based aid, the school should be 100 percent doable for the family.
On top of all this, the kid actually should want to go to the school. 
I would say that any school with a ~30% acceptance rate or lower is a reach, even if your stats are above the 75th percentile, unless the school is an in-state public or you’re a HYPSM level applicant. When my friend and I applied to Boston College, we were both waitlisted even though our stats were solidly above the 75th percentile. No one from my grade got accepted actually, although the number of applicants was low anyway since we’re on the west coast.