How hard is it to get into top majors at UofT? [Canadian]

So I am a Canadian applying to Engineering Science at UofT (have second choice, but rly want eng sci in particular)

Looking at UofT stats, they admit ~100 non-Ontario Canadian students for engg, of which around 40 are for Eng Sci (based on program numbers). And since the most capable applicants applied Eng Sci, and 90% of capable STEM people in Canada applied to UofT (regardless if they are applying Ivy, etc.), I realized that I am competing to be in the top 40 from all of Canada, excluding Ontario, for engineering, which makes me kinda scared. Did I do the math right? I had originally considered UofT a match school, but now I feel that its difficulty is tantamount to getting in an “easier” Ivy like Penn, which is my reach school. What are your opinions on this?

ill include my stats if you (hopefully) can estimate my chances:
~96% average = 3.9/4.0 (? idk)
ACT 36 (for applying to US, but I submitted to UofT anyways)
Math II 800, Chem 800
only 3 AP, 5’s (school only offers 2 APs, and both are only for seniors)
1 school club president, multiple awards/leadership position in cadets (like junior rotc)
Ethnicity: ASIAN (probably affects my chances the most lol)

And additionally, does sending ACT scores to Toronto hinder my chances at all? In retrospect, will they consider me less likely to go if accepted?

Canadian universities do not care about yield.

Nor do they care about ethnicity. No Canadian school does.

The number of non-Ontario students probably is representative of the number who apply. Also, the university may be restricted in how many non-citizens/permanent residents they can admit.

Sending your ACT score increases your chances. Your scores are great. Whether or not you get in will depend on how well you do on the supplementary application.