<p>I guess I feel that there is some middle ground when people talk about elite schools and acceptance rates. In my opinion, there is a huge difference between the top 10 or so universities and top 5 LACs in terms of acceptance – and then anything lower. At the very top, there can be no guarantees (leaving out the truly extraordinary) - you may get in nowhere or everywhere even with 4.0 uw, 2300+ SATs and very good (human, not superhuman) ECs. Those same students will probably get in every school that they apply to below that level. By the same token, the chances for a 3.5 uw, 2100 (or lower) SAT and average ECs student at those top schools without a major hook are approaching nil. Those same students probably have a very good chance at the remaining top 25 universities and LACs (still possibly a reach, but why not try if you can stand the possible disappointment. And if you can’t stand disappointment, then you shouldn’t apply to any school that <em>might</em> reject you - and you means “the student”, not “the parent”).</p>
<p>It isn’t likely that Harvard or Williams will see an unhooked student with a 3.5 uw GPA and accidentally let them in. But that same student might get in to UMich, Rice, JHU or other top schools. As the parent you gather whatever information you can about the acceptance rate and academic statistics of a given school, see where your child measures up statistically and give him/her the good/bad news. Even if you think that they can’t handle disappointment, at least let them make that decision after receiving the best information you can give them.</p>
<p>I think JHS’ statistics are close to correct and you have to factor in that some students will not chose to apply to the top schools for a variety of reasons, including parents telling their children that they have no chance - when perhaps they do.</p>