In the Naviance states for American University for my child’s high school (2,000 student public suburban high school where 80% of students go to 4-year schools), almost all of the AU acceptances were around their 50% admittance point and ALL of the higher-stats kids were wait-listed, I’m sure because they’re doing enrollment management and figure the high-stats kids aren’t going to attend as it’s their safety school. My DD’s guidance counselor told her that demonstrated interest was very important at AU.
Ironically, my DD is a fairly high-stats student who is genuinely interested in AU because of their (small) honors program and the possibility of merit aid; it also has the programs she wants and she likes the campus. So we’ll have to go out of our way to convince them that she really IS interested.