It doesn’t really matter whether or not your definition of “Safety” or “Likely” or anything else matches someone else’s.
All that matters is that, on or before May 1, you have found a school that you can get into, that you can afford, and that will allow you to learn and grow and (if you’re going away) to live comfortably for the next 4 years. You want a school that will enable you to follow the path you’ve chosen, if you’ve gotten that far. If you can find one you love, it’s a bonus.
The rest is all semantics.