The last report I received RE: WEP/GPO repeal was that there were 61 co-sponsors for the Senate version of the bill. If they all stay on, that support would be filibuster-proof.
Fingers AND toes crossed indeed! Hoping the outgoing administration gives us a holiday present.
Would be great if anyone sees further info on this bill to share here.
It sounds great, but I would be cautiously optimistic given that the possibility of cuts to Social Security in the next administration is not out of the question.
There is a Facebook page titled:
National WEP & GPO Repeal Movement
that will keep you up to date on how the bill is progressing. I have been following it closely as my spouse and I are affected.
I am curious what other peopleās crystal balls say about the stock market over the next several years. I am a fairly conservative investor, and just recently agreed to let a FA who handles some of my money invest it more aggressively. Because the market has gone up so much, I have a fairly high stock allocation in my retirement funds. Iām thinking of dialing that back a little.
If you have a certain stock/bond allocation that you generally invest at (say 60/40) it could be a good time to rebalance to ensure you are meeting that.
No crystal ball. I just trimmed a position in a gold ETF that was up over 100%. Tariffs if they come in will be inflationary, which I guess would drive rates up short-term, though the bond market often looks through the short-term, and then this would hurt stocks in the slightly longer-term. Small caps are thought to benefit from tariffs (as they are often US-based) and one of my advisors upped the allocation to small caps.
Who knows if that will happen?
My advisors and I have dialed back equities in part because interest rates are reasonably compelling relative to expected gains in the stock market. Iām looking a little more at investments that are less correlated with the market.
Oh. I just had hernia surgery this morning and the post-op nurses said āDonāt drive and donāt shop online.ā So, maybe take my thoughts with a grain of salt.
Wishing you a smooth recovery!
Hope you recover quickly
Hoping you have a speedy recovery.
I wholeheartedly agree with your nurse about no online shopping while youāre on any pain meds. Iāve made that mistake more than once, and my family will never let me live it down. Back in the pre-internet days, I placed multiple phone orders from a catalog for flower bulbs. Our budget was tight, so getting bills for literally thousands of bulbs was a serious hit to the wallet. I just couldnāt remember that Iād already placed an order or half a dozen orders.
Now that weāre retired, H teases me that the line item for my online shopping is the largest on his monthly spreadsheet even without any recent major surgeries. It includes pick-up orders for groceries as well as the clothes, shoes, books and toys we buy for our GDs, and most of our furniture and housewares.
FWIW, we agree with your assessment about the economy and the market. Whether thatās a good thing or a bad thing is up to you. 
Anyone for whom the WEP wipes out 2/3 of their social security did not pay in very long or very much. The maximum reduction is $587 for 2024. And it goes down with addition years of creditable income to no reduction at 28 years. The reasoning behind it is solid imho, but if I were in charge of the world I would allow spouses subject to it or the GPO to collect something on their spouses social security after they die. That part doesnāt make sense to me since the spouse did pay into
SS.
Thanks for the wishes @Silpat, @deb922 and @1214mom.
One additional thing to mention. Mass deportations, should they occur, would be extremely disruptive to the economy and I would guess highly inflationary. I donāt know whether the recession that could be caused or exacerbated by mass deportations predominates or whether the inflation caused by many open job slots in a economy that is close to full employment causes is dominant. Neither would be good for the stock market. My sense is that the bond market reflects this but the stock market (which is shorter term) does not.
If you are going to be 60, 61, 62, or 63 next year and are still contributing to a 401(k) plan, you will be able to bump up your catch up contribution:
Blockquote
But starting next year, the catch-up contribution limit will be higher for people in their early 60s, as part of the federal Secure 2.0 tax law passed in 2022. They can contribute up to $11,250 next year ā an additional $3,750 in catch-up contributions ā beyond the general 2025 deferral limit of $23,500, the IRS said. That means they can potentially contribute up to $34,750 in total to a workplace retior āsuperā catch-up option ā is available to workers ages 60, 61, 62 and 63. Youāre eligible if you reach that age during the calendar year, said Dan Snyder, director of personal financial planning for the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. (Once savers turn 64, theyāre no longer eligible for the extra savings but can contribute the standard catch-up amount.)
Bummer for us. Neither will be eligible.
I taught 9 years in a private school system that DID take out SS and 31 years in a public system that did not. Along with the work I did in HS and college, I have enough quarters to get SS, but yes, most of my career was spent NOT paying into the system.
And yes, the spouse suffers unfairly due to GPO/WEP.
Have people been incorporating the rising temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme weather events in their investment planning/living choices? We generally have not.
Iāve just been thinking about it because MIL owns a house a block from the beach in FL that was hit by Hurricane Ian (it is on stilts so damage was relatively moderate) and modestly hit by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The one thing we did not repair after Ian was an external elevator for MIL. So, within a year or two, she wonāt be able to use the place (she can currently walk up the stairs but canāt carry groceries) but it probably wonāt be long before she canāt walk up the stairs. I love the house/location and we spend a month to 6 weeks there every winter. Property values there remain startlingly high given the hurricanes. My instinct would be to sell when she can no longer use it but when property values remain high (and while FEMA insurance is still available).
@shawbridge - you have a good point. We happen to live in a city that is lovely but many are scared off because of the cold winters. But with climate change that is changing too. I donāt think anywhere is āclimate proofā anymore after the hurricane related damage in the North Carolina mountains, but I think the odds of something happening are lower. A family member sold a lovely home on the water a few years ago due to this. That person felt it was only a matter of time.
IMO, the related and more important issue is the availablility of insurance. In CA, insurers are not renewing policies in fire prone areas, for example. And wrt to your MIL, personally I think federal flood insurance should go away, but never will. (Heck, itās not even actuarially sound, which the law requires.)
If you believe that mom will only be able to remain for a year or two, Iād start making. plans now to sell. Meet with some brokers and tell them the plan that you want to sell in say, Apr-26, and are looking for ideas to improve marketability. But only ideas that will have at least a 2x return.
Get small repairs completed. Get a check up for the HVAC. Replace appliances on their last legs. (that way mom can get some use out of them.). Fresh paint. Carpet? Paint cabinets? You/she have time to get multiple bids. (The realtors would even have some suggestions for contractors.)
btw: did you notify insurance that the elevator is no longer in use? (she might get a small premium reduction?)
Not reallyā¦ We have retired to waterfront on Cape Cod (a tidal pond, not direct ocean front). We are 14ā above high tide, and even though we are in a āvelocity zoneā waves canāt really hit us directly. Iām not worried.
The mortgage holder requires that we have flood insurance, but we got private flood insurance because NFIP (FEMA) insurance was stupidly expensive, to the point where it almost prevented us from buying the place.
@bluebayou, interesting point about notifying insurer. When MIL and FIL before he passed away first bought the house for cash roughly 30 years ago or so, they decided they would self-insure. Over 30 years, they have saved a ton of money and when she had to pay roughly $50K for Hurricane Ian repairs, it was a drop in the bucket (and we could line up contractors while everyone else was dancing with insurers who were trying to find reasons not to pay). But, there must be some kind of property insurance. Iāll check.
Federally funded flood insurance does not make sense. It appears to still be available, but selling the property while it is still not astronomical makes sense to me. Will have to talk with MIL and ShawWifeās sibs when we understand what MIL can manage this year.
I havenāt really adjusted my stock portfolio at all, but that may be worth thinking about at some point. For example, I probably wouldnāt want to be holding REITs with coastal properties (pretty sure Iām not).
@notrichenough, we live on a river pretty far inland but did get private flood insurance as well. Earlier this year, I called an engineering firm that specializes in Iām not sure what to call it (floodproofing? ā they advise some downtown waterfront properties to be able to withstand flooding) and they didnāt seem to think we needed to do anything. I suspect the only thing we could do would be to put the house on stilts and he didnāt think anything like that was necessary.
These seem inconsistent.
John Bogle: nobody knows nothing.
Personally, Iām staying the course, and following my Financial Plan, which includes a slight rebalancing (from equities to Treasuries) to maintain my AA.