Hello, all, looking for some wisdom. Is it worth applying to schools where you likely have a 17% chance of acceptance?
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Yes, 100%. Especially, IMO, if there are personal essays involved. I really think essays have a huge impact on the application process.
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Make sure you have a good mix of schools.
Based on S24 experience this year, he got accepted to all but 1 schools above 30% acceptance rate (not just by school, also by OOS stats and major). He got rejected by all schools below that AR. In hindsight, he could have only applied to schools with 30% AR or above. Not sure about your stats, I would suggest to figure out your target school acceptance rate first and then decide on the reach school acceptance rate you want to apply.
Pretty nearly every student who attends Harvard, MIT, and similar schools applied to schools where they had much less than a 17% chance of acceptance.
I would recommend that you think about which schools are a good fit for you and apply to a few reaches if you are interested. However, if your parents are not okay with being full pay, you should first run the NPCs. Also, make sure that you apply to safeties.
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I think this depends on the kid and also on if they truly love schools with a higher likelihood of acceptance. Some kids really want to shoot for the stars, just to see where they will get in. And that’s great if they also have clear acceptance options they love and if they are ok with dealing with potential rejection. This is a great plan! Other kids want to have a more affirming application journey, and prefer to apply mostly to schools where they have a good chance of admission. Great plan! And others find top choices that happen to be a place they are likely to be accepted. Clear win!
There is nothing at all wrong with applying somewhere that your kid has a sub-20% change of admission. Reaching can be great! If they get in, great! If not, maybe they feel good knowing they tried. And learning to deal with a no also is a great life lesson.
But, make a balanced list. Be realistic. And know your own kid’s capacity to respond to a potential no. My personal opinion is that, for many kids, it’s good to have 1-2 reaches (less than 20% chance for that applicant), a handful for target where the applicant has a 50% or better chance, and some great schools the applicant loves and is very likely to get in. Of course all need to be affordable
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What does this mean?
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The distinction I would consider is where you fall compared to other applicants.
Scenario A: 10000 students apply for 1700 spots and your stats/EC/essay/rec put you right there with the rest of them? Sure, why not give it a try if you have the time/resources (but make sure you have others you would like to attend that are more likely to admit).
Scenario B: Average applicant has a 14% chance but your profile might have a 17% chance…proceed as in Scenario A, there are still a lot of kids getting rejected due to sheer number of highly qualified applicants.
Scenario C: The average applicant has a 20% chance and your profile is such that you think you might have a 17% chance? I mostly steered my (no hooks) D24 away from schools where her profile did not seem to be at the school’s average or higher. Her results for the few she did apply to in this category were not great. If you have the time/energy/resources nothing stopping a person from applying in this scenario either, as long as you are mentally prepared to see a lot of rejections (and even if you are expecting that, it can still sting, especially if your last several decisions are all rejections).
think of it this way–if you don’t apply, you have a 0% chance!
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You miss 100% of the shots you don’t try.
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You can’t say 17% chance.
If you’re looking at a school with a 17% chance of admission - the 4.0 will have better odds than a 3.0.
I’ll say it like this - you need at least one but preferably 2-3 schools that you know you’ll get into, that you can afford, and that your student likes.
After that - where you apply - doesn’t matter - you can apply anywhere because if they say no, who cares? You already got an affordable place you like.
Some kids apply to one school and get in (hopefully). Some apply to 20 and get rejected at 18.
Personally I think it’s good to be rejected - it shows you stretched.
But to each their own - your strategy is your strategy and any will work assuming you have that 2-3 assured and affordable. Applying to a school with a 17% acceptance rate means 83% got rejected - and oh well - life goes on.
Good luck.
Without knowing your grades, stats etc no one can really advise you. Plus knowing what your parents can afford.
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Agree with above.
Be realistic about where the student is versus the accepted student profile - look at GPA and SAT scores and understand where your student may fall - but things like essays and certain ECs or hooks can really matter, so do take some chances on reaches.
That being said, have more target schools than reaches and - important - make sure the school isn’t also a financial reach as well as an academic reach. Use the resources on CC and Road2College to understand real aid packages.
My S24 got into every school he applied to this cycle but W&M which was a clear reach. But he did get into UMd which has essentially the same SAT scores and grades for admitted students as W&M and fell somewhere between target and reach for him. We think it was his essay and major that made the difference but you just don’t know. You just have to apply
But be smart. Learn what the schools want and how they work. Examples: UMd takes most people from EA so don’t apply RD. Penn State really looks at essays while Pitt is more about scores. American is all about demonstrated interest and activism.
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Depends on your profile. (Turns out that the cheapest school on my kid’s acceptance list is a reach, due to a merit scholarship.) If you’re needs-based and have run some basic numbers with school-specific calculators, reaches could be affordable as well. However, the feedback this year is that many families have had COA estimates that were different than what acceptance schools offered.
Knowing what the family income is, is an important first step. Our family had acceptances that were a range of affordable to… not (common when chasing merit). But we knew this going in, which was why merit was an important part of the application process - perhaps even more so than the acceptances!
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Our feederish HS used the College Kickstart definitions. For the purpose of this discussion, I think the relevant distinction is between Reaches and Unlikelies:
- Reach: the admit rate is less than 25% or your academic performance puts you in the bottom quartile of students from the previous year. These schools admit very selectively, so the risk is higher of being denied, even if your academic performance is strong. We recommend having at least two in your list to give yourself some upside.
- Unlikely: the admit rate is less than 25% AND your academic performance puts you in the bottom quartile of students from the previous year. Statistically speaking, these schools are likely to be out of reach unless there are unique circumstances that set you apart from the applicant pool (underrepresented minority, first to attend college, special talent, etc.).
Our HS discouraged Unlikely applications, and I tend to agree with that absent unique circumstances.
OK, so the question is:
If by this you mean the school has less than a 17% acceptance rate, the next question is if your numbers place you above the 25th percentile.
If so, that is a Reach and you can do a couple or indeed a few more of those.
If not, then the next question is whether there are special circumstances.
If there are special circumstances, you need a special analysis.
If not . . . you should be looking for different options for your reaches.
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Depends on the kids stats. For some kids, not worth it, for others absolutely!
If kid is in hardest classes/levels offered (or near it) and has mostly As and solid ECs, sure, go for it.
If kid has mostly Bs and some As and Cs, not worth the money IMO.
Though this is all so nuanced it is really hard to give generalizations.
Note, I am reading this that the school has less than a 17% acceptance rate. I am not sure how you would know your own kid has specifically less than a 17% chance…
Look up the Common Data Sets for the schools and go to Section C. Are your stats comprable to those of the most recent classes of admitted and enrolled students? If yes, you should be a credible applicant. The low admission rates mean that many credible applicants still get denied, though, so build a balanced college list.
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bearing in mind the GPAs listed on CDS sometimes (maybe even often) weighted or recalculated (who knows how!) and sometimes not. And yes I know the instructions on the form to use unweighted only but clearly many schools ignore this. Still worth checking but still only a rough idea…and if unweighted almost all schools realy do care about rigor…so that can compensate (to a degree) for lower UW GPA…
I can’t tell you how many CDS I have seen that had >4.0 average (impossible if using a 4.0UW scale) or were lowly ranked and had 25% in 4.0 bucket…
Often the school has a “freshman” or “first year” profile which is slightly clearer (sometimes will mention if weighted or not - though still rarely how they weight) and is often a more up-to-date class.
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PS transcript of this, from Bucknell’s AOs is interesting… (and each school is slightly different!)
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most schools have supplemental essays. the more time you focus on reach schools and their essays, the less time you have for target and safety school applications. Application burn out is real so be careful how you spend your application time.
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