How much will a bad 1st semester junior year hurt me for MIT/Stanford/Princeton/Caltech/Cal?

@ucbalumnus a safety school like ASU would definitely be humiliating to them. Doesn’t have to be just HYPSM, but they want me to go to a top ranked private or one of the top three UC’s. A place like ucsd would be acceptable to them. But the thing that’s most disappointing to them and to me as well is that I could have kept a lot of doors open for myself had I not screwed up this semester.

And do UCB and UCLA even care about extracurriculars. I had some friends admitted to EECS last year and their numbers were pretty much perfect (4.8 gpa’s) but they had no extracurriculars. The 6% acceptance rate mystifies me. Are they extremely anal about minor gpa differences and that’s how they decide who to take?

I know that you typically can’t submit letter of rec and first semester senior grades unless by request. Do you think they’d likely ask me for these things after I submit my application given my circumstances?