<p>I knew it happened for undergrad, and I suspect there are people to whom it happens at the PhD level, regardless of discipline. I understand that, should it happen, it can be because of an overly optimistic list, but there is an additional factor that could contribute: research misfit.</p>
<p>However, does it happen more often for undergrad or for a PhD?</p>
<p>I would say it probably happens more for PhD programs, mainly because it’s easier to predict which schools you can get into for undergrad. Since it’s more stats-based, you have a better sense of which schools are reaches/matches/safeties than you do with PhD programs, where the main admissions criteria are research experience/fit and recommendation letters. Someone with a 3.3 GPA and 2000 SAT probably wouldn’t apply to just Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and MIT for undergrad because they would see the average accepted GPA and SAT and realize they were unlikely to get in. However, the grad school equivalent of that happens more often because those obvious statistical thresholds don’t exist. That said, most people I know who applied to Ph.D. programs got into at least one, so as long as you’re realistic in the schools you apply to I don’t think you have anything to worry about.</p>
<p>I asked that very question on the undergrad counterpart of this thread. It was legitimate, after all, but since I’m an international student (in the context of the schools I want to apply to) I think they will ask more of international students than from domestic ones.</p>
<p>It varies by field and student. I know a few people in my own field (psychology) who got shut out their first year of applying; that’s very common, especially in social and clinical psychology. It’s mostly because students apply out of undergrad when increasingly successful clinical psych, and many successful social psych, applicants have 1-2 years of post-college research experience. I also know that it’s pretty common in English and history just from following another fora; again, it’s because students often get shut out in their senior year of college when they need an MA to be competitive.</p>
<p>There’s no way to know for sure, but I suspect this happens far more often for PhD programs than it does for undergrad. In fact, I would say that if a HS senior has a realistic and comprehensive college list the chances of getting shut out should be very, very low - a statistical anomaly. Usually students who get “shut out” had a far too ambitious list for their actual record.</p>
<p>
The idea of an “optimistic” Ph.D. list sounds like the undergraduate admissions style brand-name chasing. At the grad level one is applying to departments, not universities, and the university “prestige” level may be completely disconnected from the quality of the dept. or the specialization of the dept. that is relevant to the applicant. My friends and colleagues who carefully researched departments and faculty, keeping in mind their research interests, plans, and strengths, and who reached out to depts., establishing communication and potential relationships, had no problem being admitted to “good fit” departments. I did know one guy at an elite U who applied to 12 psych Ph.D. programs and was rejected by all 12 because he just shot applications to big names instead of finding depts with faculty matched to his research. Identifying “fit” departments and then courting faculty IN PERSON by visiting, not just e-mails, makes a big difference.</p>
<p>It is probably more common in a Ph.D. program because of the financial aspect as well. Sometimes Ph.D. programs won’t admit applicants unless they have funding available for them. The applicant might be admissible and a good fit but with only a few positions available, admission could still be denied.</p>
<p>I think subfield within a field can also be a factor. In my field, physics, particle theory and cosmology theory are considered the subfields most likely to lead to shutouts.</p>
<p>Since physics is my field as well, I tend to agree, however, I have been doing graduate admissions for our program for many years and I am not sure that any admissions committee expects a student to stay exactly with their intended field in all cases. i, and many of my contemporaries in graduate school wanted to be particle theorists but most of us realized quickly that if we wanted to have a funded research position, it would involve switching to a different subfield. I can’t say that i regret it.</p>
<p>Even so, I am shopping PhD programs with a subfield in mind (and UPenn is my first choice because it has two profs working on topics closely related to my current project) so as to make sure I wouldn’t be rejected because of misfit.</p>