How realistic are my chances in getting into UCs or Cali State? Do I meet the requirements?

I’m currently a junior in high school (class of 2021). I live outside of California. My cumulative GPA is now 3.49. Sophomore year to first semester of junior year has been 5 A’s with 2 B’s. Unfortunately, this semester finished with 5 A’s, 1 C and 1 D. I could not raise those grades due to quarantine. The D is from my pre-calculus class, and the class is 90% weighted testing and 10% finals. No more testing was offered to raise the grade after the stay-at-home order. Because of this, the D is not considered as a credit for the A-G course from my understanding. Would taking another math course during senior year suffice for the lost credit? My ACT score without the essay is 27. All of my classes are IB.

Welcome to college confidential.

Some points to consider as an OOS applicant to these California Public universities.

  1. They offer little to no financial aid to OOS students so for the Cal states you are looking at around $37-40K/year to attend. For the UC’s, you are looking at $65K/year to attend.

  2. The minimum OOS UC capped weighted GPA required to just apply is a 3.4. A 3.0 capped weighted GPA is required for the Cal states. UC’s and Cal States only use 10-11th grades in their GPA calculation and your D is going to impact your chances greatly.

Since test scores are optional/suspended, your GPA will have a greater impact on your chances for Fall 2021 admission.

Here is the UC GPA calculator so calculate your 3 UC GPA’s. The Capped weighted UC GPA = CSU capped weighted GPA.

  1. 6 of the 9 UC’s have average UC capped weighted GPA’s of 4.0 or higher so anything below a 4.0 will make most of the UC’s tough admits.

  2. Intended major will impact your chances at both Cal states and UC’s. Many of the popular majors such as Engineering/CS, Psychology, Biology are impacted (more qualified applicants than spots) so these majors will more competitive than the average stats indicate.

  3. The UC’s and CSU’s do use grade validation for Math courses, so taking a higher level Math such as Calculus and passing with a C or higher will validate the D in Pre-calculus. However, if you do not repeat the exact same class, the D will be used in your GPA calculation.

Below is some UC admission data to help gauge your chances. Based on your posted information, UC Merced and UC Riverside might be options and some of the Cal states but not the competitive schools like Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, San Diego State, Cal state Long Beach, Cal state Fullerton etc…

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 1%
UCLA: 2%
UCSD: 9%
UCSB: 6%
UCI: 7%
UCD: 9%
UCSC: 40%
UCR: 53%
UCM: 80%

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 12%
UCLA: 7%
UCSD: 33%
UCSB: 32%
UCD: 47%
UCI: 35%
UCSC: 72%
UCR: 87%
UCM: 96%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.23 (4.15-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.32)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.03-4.28)
UCSB: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)
UCD: 4.13 (4.00-4.26)
UCSC: 3.96 (3.76-4.16)
UCR: 3.90 (3.69-4.11)
UCM: 3.73 (3.45-4.00)

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT composite + language arts
UCB: 28-35
UCLA: 29-35
UCSD: 26-34
UCSB: 26-34
UCD: 24-33
UCI: 24-34
UCSC: 24-32
UCR: 21-30
UCM: 18-26

Here is a link to average CSU capped weighted GPA and ACT scores for each CSU campus. Impacted majors and campuses will have a higher required stats than listed.

Also as an OOS applicant, only AP/IB courses taken 10-11th grades get the extra honors points in the calculation. OOS HS honors courses are not weighted.