@squirk To @NYYFanNowMTdad ‘s point, there is a ton of talent out there. If you’re going to go top heavy, the more schools the merrier. They are literally lottery picks. There’s just a very limited amount of space. It’s like the Harvard AO saying he could replace his entire admitted class with the next rung of kids and not lose any academic quality at all. But they have to make decisions based on something and we’ll never know what that something is. In MT, it could be your kid’s look (relative to what they’re looking for). They may already have a few upperclassmen with similar look / talent and decide not to offer your kid because they know she’ won’t get cast in anything. There’s no way to know what they base it on. They may call it fit, but it appears quite random to the applicants. Many kids will experience passing elite program prescreens and not passing proverbial lesser schools. Some will get nowhere with 20 schools and all of a sudden bang out a yes at one of the top programs int he country. It’s just really tough.
Better to be realistic and prepare.