I am looking data from my kid’s High School. How would you select a college that it could be a match? Two things are against us ORM and need lots of need based or merit based aid to attend the College.
I fully understand that data needs to be considered in a context. As it is only telling acceptances based primarily on GPA and standardized test scores. It does not consider other aspects of the applications such as I have no idea of any admitted students who may have hooks like, URM, Athletic Recruit, any other talent, Full Pay, developmental kids or early decision etc.
First I look: I ran an NPC and see if I can afford that college.
Based on where we can afford, then second step I look GPA/SAT scores of admitted kids.
If I look the college admission data for last few years that shows number of kids applied, GPA range (my daughter has way higher GPA than the range I looked 100% admitted). How many kids applied, how many got admitted from our high school? I can also see the mean of admitted kids SAT scores in math and verbal.
If I see my daughter GPA/SAT scores are higher than all the kids who applied and got (100%) admitted at that lower GPA range. Let us say 10 kids applied who have lower GPA than my daughter’s GPA and all 10 were admitted to the college. I also look the admitted kids mean SAT scores. If admitted SAT scores fall below the SAT scores that my daughter have. Would you consider this college under match?
My daughter has all necessary extracurricular activities and achievement outside of the classroom. Only two things that are against her is that she is ORM and she need lots of need based or merit based aid to attend that College. By running the NPC I can see that college is affordable to us as what they are providing by NPC.
What would you recommend to fine tune match college criterion. We have two SUNY school as safety.
I am just getting idea as how would you perceive that college is a match.
A match school admits students pretty predictably - around 50% acceptance rate and up. Schools with below 25% acceptance rate are weighting intangibles more heavily and are therefore reaches for everyone.
And then your GPA and test scores are both above the 25th percentile for the most recent data for the college. Preferably they are near the 50th percentile, which usually isn’t given on college search websites so estimate it by averaging the 25th and 75th percentiles.
Well, it depends upon whether the school is need-blind, or need-aware. You might have wonderful numbers, but if the school has used up all its scholarship money already, then no, it may not admit another needy tho qualified student.
@roycroftmom Let us say a very famous university that has a overall nationwide 25% admittance rate overall. All kid’s from our daughter’s high school who applied in last few years with a 3.XX GPA were admitted to the College. The kids who were admitted have GPA and SAT scores lower than her GPA and SAT scores. Based on NPC calculator this university is affordable. They meet 100% kids need.
@thumper1 what you say is right that past performance is no guarantee. But guidance counselor must be recommending based on some data. I guess we will pick up few school based on this criterion for match.
I think if naviance has plenty of data and shows 100% admission rate that you are good to go. Now of course you will need a few of those schools just in case there is a first time surprise. I find it unlikely that all of those schools will change the pattern next year simultaneously. Make sure you have a variety and also include some schools in the high 30s acceptance rate.
The concern with just looking at high school level data is sample size. It’s most reliable for schools that have larger graduating classes, and even then it’s most useful for the colleges that are the more popular places to apply.
@AroundHere we are talking elite prep high schools where rarely anyone gets 4.0 GPA and extremely rigorous course load with all APs or beyond in junior year.
@nynycasino1234 I missed any reference you made to your kid attending an elite prep high school.
If that is the case…the guidance folks at she elite prep high schools have a very very good handle on who should apply where and be guaranteed or close to guaranteed acceptances. So…go and listen to your school counselor.
I also know folks whose kids attended private elite HS…and they hired private counselors to give them some direction in the application process.
I think a LOT depends on what is viewed as a “match” for your kiddo. Give us an example of a college you think might be a match based on the data you currently have.
When looking to devise a list of colleges for my kids, I used the Common Data Set for colleges. (You can often just Google “CDS +COLLEGE NAME” or “Common Data Set + COLLEGE NAME.”)
I considered college to be a “statistical match” if my kid’s stats were in the top 25 percentile or above of enrolled students from the previous year. However, these days that would likely mean our kids would have to be in the highest category for SAT/ACT and GPA. If they satisfied that criterion – and were in principle 'admittable," the application’s success was likely to depend on intangibles: interests, major field, college’s focus (e.g., technical, arts, general liberal arts, etc.)
However, this simple sorting procedure was far from sufficient because of the increasingly competitive climate in admissions since my kids applied. Also, in our daughter’s case, “statistics” were not helpful b/c she was applying only to art schools, for which the quality of her art portfolio was the most critical factor in admissions. Was her art good enough? That was very difficult for us to determine. Fortunately, she applied to art colleges that a variety of admit rates, but all satisfied her a priori criteria by location and type of college. She was admitted to all of them.
I break it down by academic match (and safety and reach) and financial safety, match and reach.
They often don’t match up, sad to say.
While we don’t have access to Naviance at our school yet, from what I understand, it’ll be next to useless in helping us determine financial matches or safeties.
What you’re doing is laborious but pretty much the only way to end up with a trustworthy list.
We used both the Parchment and Cappex websites to run predictions about our D’s college admission chances. We also kept her expectations realistic with regards to colleges she had a reasonable chance of being accepted to. Remarkably, she was accepted to all of the colleges she applied to that these two websites predicted she had a 50 percent or greater chance of being admitted to.
Of course, we entered her data into the websites accurately and honestly. We can’t speak for anyone else’s experiences, but we would highly recommend using these websites if for nothing else than to provide an initial assessment of an applicant’s chances.
If the student is applying for a more competitive major like CS, but the Naviance admit dots are for admits to less competitive majors, those admit dots can be misleading.
@nynycasino1234 I think if you were comfortably full pay you might be able to consider some schools matches that are traditionally considered “reach for everyone”. Of course for an unhooked ORM, full pay or not, HYPSM are still reaches no matter what Naviance says for your D’s high school. In your case where financial/merit aid is a critical consideration, you may still be wise to consider schools reaches if you aren’t sure how the aid will turn out; for instance if an elite school has some extremely competitive but generous scholarships it would still be a reach if it’s only affordable with the competitive scholarship. Make sure you’re having an ongoing “money talk” with your D so that she’s aware of the financial limitations and doesn’t get her heart set on a potentially unaffordable option.
You’re way ahead of most parents already, with this.
“Match is tough”. My youngest kid was accepted to a couple of her reaches but went about 50/50 on the matches. Maybe they thought her stats were too high and she wasn’t serious about going. One school I thought would gap her gave her an excellent FA package, another school - actually two - that promised to meet full need did so with a much higher expected contribution than some others.
In the end she chose the schools to apply to, and though I felt 2 wouldn’t work out (and financially they didn’t though she got in), enough of the others did that she had a lot to think about in April.
You have the 2 SUNYs - if you’re sure those are safe and she likes them, then that’s half the battle.
A lot of high stats students are matches for a LOT of colleges so it comes down to what she wants - location, major, size, urban/rural, etc. I’d think hundreds of schools would match her stat-wise.
The problem is that once you are looking beyond safeties, then admissions is going to be based more on qualitative factors than data. Does the applicant have qualities that that the particular college is likely to value? That could be academic, athletic, or demographic qualities – or a combination of several. You want to figure out from researching the individual college what sort of students they probably want more of and target schools that are looking for qualities that your child has to offer. On the academic end of things that would tend to be demonstrated interest and abilities in areas that the college needs to bolster. So if your kid knows what he wants to major in, a college where that major is underenrolled would be more of a match than than a college where the same major is overenrolled.
If you really do need a lot of financial aid you may do better to focus more on safeties and reaches than matches in any case. The reaches simply because schools that promise to meet 100% of need tend to be reach level schools. (A few exceptions, but their high level selectivity is part of the formula that allows them to commit to full need based aid). And safeties because high level merit aid tends to go to students at the top of the applicant pool. Your kid is probably not going to get a full-tuition merit scholarship at a school that you think is a match – but may very well qualify for that level of aid at a school that is clearly a safety.
Remember also that if merit scholarships are needed for affordability, reach/match/safety must be based on the scholarships, not just admission. This can make Naviance information less useful.