If you want to look at the different computer models on google maps you can go here and zoom really far in
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.html
The pink track puts it right over the Dali Musem
If you want to look at the different computer models on google maps you can go here and zoom really far in
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.html
The pink track puts it right over the Dali Musem
How do you get the current models from that link?
best guess it to go to http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ scroll to Irma and then a pull down menu select google maps and hit display.
that worked. now need to superimpose the cities.
Looks like the eye finally disengaged from the Cuban coast. The storm is pretty ragged and sickly on satellite imagery … but it’s still a Cat 3. The recon aircraft says the pressure is dropping, so expect it to intensify over time. The eyewall should hit the Keys in 10-12 hours, around 3-5 am.
Only two models forecast the current position correctly and both of them have the eye moving onshore at the point south of Naples. The eye stays inland from then on but runs parallel to the coast. Regardless of the actual landfall point, I think the very oblique angle of incidence will help reduce the surge.
All the people who ran to the west coast of FL need to run back to the east coast!
My Ft. Myers friends have been through cat 3 hurricanes before…and feel pretty confident that their houses won’t blow away if that is the wind and surge level. BUT is there still the chance this could get back up to cat 4 or 5?
I was just listening to a Maine Public Radio podcast, and they had an item about a family whose children are stuck on St. Marten after a destination wedding. Apparently about 40 friends and family went down for the wedding, and it sounds like most of the older folks then came home, leaving about 14 young family members and friends and the B&G to enjoy some more planned time at the resort. The father said that they talked to many islanders, wondering if the kids should stay, and they all pooh-poohed the danger, saying they had had many hurricanes before and it wasn’t a big deal. As he said, they were all wrong. A plane was sent down to evacuate people, but the bride, who made it to the list as a female, refused to go and leave her husband and friends, so she gave up her seat to the next person on the list. (Her father was proud of her. )
They are trying to figure out how to get them all off the island. Maybe they will be evacuated on the Royal Caribbean ship…
^I saw that story in the Portland newspaper. They said the wedding venue was just GONE.
@thumper1 – it’s difficult to know what it’ll do. Right now, the wind speed is right at the Cat 2/3 border but the central pressure is in the Cat 4 range (and dropping). A lower pressure means a stronger storm so you have to assume the wind speed will increase over the next five to ten hours. My WAG is that it’ll get to low Cat 4 wind speed before landfall.
right now it’s the top end of 3 and likely to get to 4 per the NHC.
I just read that the wedding party was evacuated to the Dominican Republic today and will be flown to Toronto for free by a Canadian air service this evening. Apparently the resort was destroyed, and the owner was helping to arrange the evacuation of their guests.
"Sorry, Texas, I did not donate to you , funds will be needed locally. " No reason for a person of means not to donate to efforts in both Texas and Florida, so guessing you are kidding. . Stay safe in Florida! This is so scary.
My aunt and her husband put my mom on a plane to me yesterday, and are now evacuating from Tampa with 2 dogs, 2 cats, a parrot, and (unexpectedly) two older ladies who didn’t have anyplace to go.
I really worry for all the cars stuck on the road. I wouldn’t have evacuated if I lived in a house or had a shelter that was up to regulations. Being on the road, in a traffic jam, is NOT where you want to be when a hurricane’s coming your way. Category 5 will lift your car with you in it. I’m not kidding.
St Marten is gone, St Bart’s and the Virgin Islands are in shambles and French Carribeans are serving as a base to bring water and help. The issue is that roofs and windows have flown out, even with hurricane shutters and protections many houses are destroyed, trees and pieces of metal are laying about, and Jose is coming up, ready to lift all that and slam it into people without shelter. In addition, there’s looting (I’m not talking about people trying to find a bottle of water in the rubble of a supermarket, I’m talking gangs of people lifting giant flat screen TVs, which… why??? there’s no electricity and everything’s destroyed… and fighting over stuff, scaring families already traumatized.
There’s a sort of “Doctors without borders” for reconstruction after earthquakes and hurricans, called “Emergency architects” or something…
"“Sorry, Texas, I did not donate to you , funds will be needed locally. " No reason for a person of means not to donate to efforts in both Texas and Florida, so guessing you are kidding.”
Makes sense to me for one to donate all their dollars in their home state. Donating close to the source of need is often best, IMO, as it increases the chance of knowing that $$ is reaching the intended recipient without excessive administrative and overhead costs, money being funneled away from intended use, etc.
As long as many donate SOMEWHERE, I like to hope things will work out.
@1214mom …that should have been my former MIL too
@Consolation, Glad to hear the wedding party was evacuated. And @1214, Best of luck to all! There has been some discussion about cruises. Most major cruise lines have captains that can steer a cruise out of harms way. If you have a reservation at a hotel or resort planned during hurricane season, consider travel/ evacuation insurance. I’m more worried about getting stuck in a resort somewhere because of a hurricane or earthquake, than being on a cruise. But, luckily, these events are still not an everyday occurrence.
I’ve heard also that a few Island of Turks and Caicos haven’t been heard from. The eye moved directly over Salt Cay, which is a big high-end resort. It’s likely gone.
@droppedit what is the trajectory for Jose? Thx