<p>Hypothetically, let’s throw out an app with great everything - SATs, SAT IIs, GPA, ECs, a few leadership positions, awesome essays & recs, let’s even throw in a hook.</p>
<p>What are the odds of that student getting in?</p>
<p>Basically, I’m asking if admission really is a crapshoot when it comes to the top students. It feels like everyone is qualified equally, so the final decisions must be fairly subjective (i.e. oh this kid plays baseball but I hate that sport - REJECT), mustn’t they?</p>
<p>Your chances are a better than less qualified applicants, but you are still up against other people that have the same stats or higher. So your chances aren’t that much greater. They don’t do silly things like that to eliminate applications (the baseball thing you mentioned). They just simply read your essay and if they like the type of personality they have perceived from you, then you have a few points behind you. A whole group of people read the applications and give feedback. Sometimes they may reject some depending on their ability to pay, but that’s mostly in cases where there is a ridiculously high number of applications. Going back to the personality; that also ties into the interview. If they think you would be a good asset to the incoming class, then you can better your chances with an interview. Knowing an alumni will help as well. I know an alumni and I have a few connections, so that would boost chances upon recommendation and such. Just give it your best shot.</p>
<p>With all due respect, it’s an absurd and unanswerable question. If it’s a perfect application, then by definition the likelihood of acceptance is 100%. But it’s impossible to have a perfect application since the criteria for judging applications is necessarily subjective. I suppose that a “perfect application” would be one that had a combination of quantitative academic performance measurements (e.g. GPA and standardized test scores) and qualitative factors that would appeal to every admissions officer. That applicant would than have a perfect, 100% chance of acceptance.</p>
<p>In reality, no one will appeal perfectly to all admissions officers such that they will be accepted 100% of the time no matter what (and there’s no need for them to do so, as they only have to be accepted once). All you can say is that some students, owing to their academic achievements and ability to write compelling and honest personal narratives, have a better chance of admission than others. To a very limited extent, you can quantify this percentage by restricting your focus to the quantitative measures of academic performance (e.g. middle 50% of SAT scores) of accepted applicants in past years.</p>
<p>Admissions is not a crapshoot, and it’s certainly not random, but it’s definitely subjective.</p>