I'm trying to narrow down the number of safety schools I apply to

College Search & Lists
1

I want to go into product management for the online aspect of the casino gaming industry, so there are many majors I could choose and I’m undecided about which one I want. Business, Finance, Game Development, Computer Science, Marketing, Advertisement, Entrepreneurship, Accounting, Game Design. So I’m pretty flexible with major.

Cost is definitely a factor. My parents are not in synch on it. With one, I’m hearing that I will only get a thousand a month for college (yeah, that’s not how college works), and from the other, I’m hearing that UC Santa Cruz would cost over $36k a year, and they should at least cover that much. My stepfather has admitted they can afford to give more, but he thinks it’s character building for me to get $10k+ a year in student loans.

I’ll have my igetc done before I graduate high school, and all the admission counselors I’ve been in communication with from the following schools said I could start school as a junior (you know, if I’m admitted). I’ve also taken some major prep classes for business and computer science, but it’s unlikely those would transfer everywhere. The cheapest option would be to go to San Jose State and live at home. That would be less than $10k. UC Merced’s calculator says it would be about $35,359 for my family. University of Nevada-Las Vegas’s said $27,177 with the tuition discount for Western states. Oregon Institute of Technology’s said $29,588. And Washington State University’s said $29,239. That’s five safeties when I probably need two max.

Thanks in advance!

2

A college can only be a safety if it is affordable. SJSU is the only one that you can consider a potential safety from an affordability standpoint, since your parents’ $12k per year plus $5.5k student loans plus a few thousand in work earnings means that you need a net price under $20k (preferably less).

However, it may not be a safety from an admissions standpoint, depending in you grades and intended major (computer science is the most competitive major). There is also more uncertainty because historical thresholds based on (GPA * 800 + SATRW + SATM) as listed at https://www.sjsu.edu/admissions/impaction/ may be harder to use to estimate next year’s thresholds because CSU will suspend use of the SAT and ACT next year, according to https://www2.calstate.edu/csu-system/news/Pages/CSU-to-Suspend-Standardized-Testing-Requirement-for-Upcoming-Admission-Cycles.aspx .

3

@ucbalumnus I actually looked at your post on how to write one of these before I posted. That’s why I included how much flexibility I had with my major. Think of it this way: I’m not married to my major. I have no intention of trying to be a computer science major in California when there are so many other majors in less demand that will give me the exact same career that I want.

San Jose State is definitely a safety from an admissions standpoint, depending on my grades and if my SAT score ends up being around my PSAT score. I’m in the middle college program, and we get the admissions bump for being in the geographic area San Jose State serves. My school also has Naviance, and for all the schools I listed, my data point on the scattergram was way outside the box. These are the schools I’ve been looking at, from the saftiest safety to the reachiest reach

Safeties
Oregon Institute of Technology
UC Merced
Washington State University
University of Nevada Las Vegas
San Jose State

Match
CSU Fullerton
SDSM&T
UC Davis
University of Utah
UC Riverside

Reach
San Diego State
CSU Long Beach
UC Santa Cruz
UC Irvine
New Mexico Tech

Too High to Even Try
UCSB
UCSD
Calpoly
UCLA
Berkeley

I’m going to narrow down the target and reach schools by half. (I’ll probably end up picking Fullerton, SDSM&T, University of Utah, CSU Long Beach, and New Mexico Tech.) And don’t worry- I’m not going to apply to any of the “high reach schools.” But I’d like to narrow down those safeties to only two schools. Online gambling attracts all sorts, and I don’t need to go to Stanford to get a good job. I’ve been interning for a company for the last two summers and the CEO got his business degree from University of Nevada Reno.

You are totally right that it might be hard to use historical trends to estimate next year’s results, but I’m not applying to any test-blind schools. Some of the schools I’m thinking of applying to no longer require test scores, but they will still consider them. Caltech and Berkeley have suspended the use of SAT and ACT scores, but SJSU and UC Merced have not. They only no longer require those tests, but they will still accept and consider them. A strong SAT score is still a piece of evidence an applicant can use to make their case for admission.

As for the money, I have to keep trying. My parents are a lot younger than all my friend’s parents. By about 20 years. They’re actually Millenials. He graduated at age 21 in 2008 and he had six figures of student loan debt. It’s hard for someone in his early 30s to think things have changed since he was in college, you know? So I’m going to have to explain Obama era student loan reform to him so that he understands that I just don’t have the option of borrowing $10k+ a year in student loan debt. Plus we’ve been sheltering in place with each other 24/7 for thirteen weeks, so my mom already sees the value in spending an extra thousand or so a month to avoid living with me.

Cheers!

4

Any college that is not affordable within your expected financial limits is a reach, since you would be applying for large enough scholarships, not admission. Meaning that your list is all reach except possibly SJSU if you choose a less competitive major relative to your stats.

SJSU is a CSU, whose page linked above says that SAT and ACT scores will not be used next year.

5

If you are putting SDSU, CSULB, UCI and UCSC in the Reach category, then UC Davis is also a Reach and not a Match.

Here is some UC admit data. UCD is on par with Irvine and Santa Barbara in competitiveness. Since you do not state what your UC/CSU capped weighted GPA is currently, it is difficult to determine if your list is truly accurate.

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.00-3.39 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 1%
UCLA: 1%
UCSD: 1%
UCSB: 1%
UCI: 1%
UCD: 2%
UCSC: 13%
UCR: 18%
UCM: 53%

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 1%
UCLA: 2%
UCSD: 9%
UCSB: 6%
UCI: 7%
UCD: 9%
UCSC: 40%
UCR: 53%
UCM: 80%

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 12%
UCLA: 7%
UCSD: 33%
UCSB: 32%
UCD: 47%
UCI: 35%
UCSC: 72%
UCR: 87%
UCM: 96%

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 4.20 or above capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 38%
UCLA: 35%
UCSD: 71%
UCSB: 73%
UCD: 84%
UCI: 55%
UCSC: 85%
UCR: 97%
UCM: 98%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.23 (4.15-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.32)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.03-4.28)
UCSB: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)
UCD: 4.13 (4.00-4.26)
UCSC: 3.96 (3.76-4.16)
UCR: 3.90 (3.69-4.11)
UCM: 3.73 (3.45-4.00)

2019 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT totals:
UCB: 1340-1540

UCLA: 1330-1550
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1280-1520
UCD: 1230-1490
UCI: 1250-1510
UCSC: 1200-1450
UCR: 1130-1400
UCM: 1020-1290

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT composite + language arts
UCB: 28-35
UCLA: 29-35
UCSD: 26-34
UCSB: 26-34
UCD: 24-33
UCI: 24-34
UCSC: 24-32
UCR: 21-30
UCM: 18-26

6

As said, it’s not a safety when there are contingencies, such as cost. The safety schools are the most difficult to select, IMO. Many people spend little time and thought to them, and end up with schools that are not what they want mainly because they were thrown on the list because of high acceptance rates. Come to find out those schools don’t have the programs they want and are not to their liking, and there are other safety options much more in line with those that were not researched.

When there are many variables at play, having a lot of safety schools is not a bad idea. I think it’s great that you put in the time and have the list you do.

7

@ucbalumnus Yes, I understand that all UCs and CSUs are suspending the use of SAT and ACT scores to determine eligibility, but this does not mean all are suspending the consideration of such scores. “We do not require” means test-optional. “We do not consider” means test-blind. The UCs have announced they will be test-blind for the 2023 and 2024, and Berkely has announced they are piloting a test-blind study for Californian applicants for next year. But the CSUs are all still test-optional for now. I’ll try to explain this to you how my college counselor at school explained it to me. Imagine all the schools said it was optional to write an essay. If you did not submit the essay, it would not be held against you. The essay is not what they are using to determine eligibility. But if you write a great essay and submit it, it can help you stand out from the pool of eligible applicants who did not submit such an essay, which can help you get an acceptance. Got it?

And I have two working parents. More if you count my dad and his wife, but they’re only going to be providing emotional support. My mom is saying over $36k a year. My stepfather is saying he’ll let me have $1,000 a month when he’s previously always said they’d pay for me to go to college. I’ve saved them two whole years of university by doing middle college, and I’m only looking at state schools that have a comparatively low cost. Saying my expected financial limits have to be what my stepfather proposed makes as much sense as saying my expected financial limits have to be what my mom proposed. They both have admitted the money is there and we can afford for me to go to UC Santa Cruz for two years. (I’m only bringing up UCSC because my mom said its estimated cost of attendance was the highest, and that seems true when I ran their calculator on the site.) I need to apply to more than one school or else I won’t be giving them or myself options. I need to narrow down the number of safeties I apply to because that’s the responsible thing to do. A CSU or UC application is $70. UNLV’s is $60. WSU and Oregon Tech’s are both $50. For UCs, I’d have to write answers to the personal insight questions. I’d have to write essays for UNLV, and WSU has a “Why Washington State University” essay. There is a financial and time component to applying to more schools than I need to.

8

Your father is in his early 30s? Are you adopted or did your parents have you in their teens?

9

@jym626 Stepfather. He’s 33 and was born in 1986. He married my mom ten years ago. But yes, my mom and dad were very young when they had me, and my mom and I lived with my grandma until my mom got married. It took my mom longer to finish school because… baby. They have that dual tech income, but their careers only took off two years ago. It’s probably normal to start making serious money once you’re a decade out of college (if you’re Bay Area tech workers), but it means my family’s not going to qualify for Cal Grant like they would have when I was a freshman in high school. (See? It’s still a pretty recent idea that paying for my college was going to mean paying full price. So my stepfather just has to get used to the idea.)

10

While UC is test optional next year, CSU is test blind next year.

https://www2.calstate.edu/csu-system/news/Pages/CSU-to-Suspend-Standardized-Testing-Requirement-for-Upcoming-Admission-Cycles.aspx says:

11

It is always better to plan for the worst case and consider a better case to be a pleasant surprise, rather than plan for the best case and get shut out when it does not happen.

12

@ucbalumnus Wow! That sure is what it says. Why is it that they’ll still let you submit the scores? I’ll pass that info on to the counselor at my school, though. He said there were less than half a dozen schools that were test-blind. There’s 23 CSUs!

13

@ucbalumnus Planning for one possible worst-case means applying to SJSU, but it doesn’t mean it has to be the only school I apply to. Because, of course, the worst-worst case is that they throw me out! And then what am I going to do? The only school I applied to is in one of the most expensive housing markets in the country!? Yikes! No matter what scenario you run, best or worst, it’s going to be smartest and most responsible for me to apply to more than one school.

14

Hi Gumbymom! Thanks so much for replying! I based UC Davis being a match because of the number of students with my gpa or a lower gpa and my test scores or lower test scores both actually and recently getting accepted into UC Davis, but not getting into those other schools. How a Naviance scattergram works is that it doesn’t rely on the gpas of all the applicants the UCs get. It relies on the gpas of students from your own high school (or in my case, middle college program). It creates a data point that is more accurate than looking at the aggregate admit rates of schools. Not less.

15

Never said that you should apply only to one college. However, your worst case financial limitations suggest that all other colleges on your list are reaches, not (potential) safeties.

If your parents do assure you that they have agreed to contribute the larger amount that your mother indicates, then you can more colleges fall into that price limit into the potential match and safety categories based on their admission difficulty.

16

@geven I can’t give any school advice as I have no knowledge of CA schools. However, I am struck by what a good communicator you are – it jumps out – and I just wanted to give you props for that. Also to say that just because someone asks you a personal question it does not mean you have to answer.

Best of luck as you navigate this process!

17

@cptofthehouse Aww, thanks! I thought this could be a fun post because people usually get told they have too many reaches. I thought it’d be fun to do a post about safeties. I never thought I’d have to argue it’s smart for me to apply to more than one safety, but I totally understand I have a unique cost issue. How many people here grew up on Medicaid but have parents who just bought their first home and it costs over half a million dollars? Sometimes, when you don’t have a lot of pennies, you get really used to not spending them. But then when you have more pennies, it’s hard to change that mindset.

18

@ucbalumnus I know you never said I should only apply to one college, but I’ll have my first two years of college done by the time I graduate high school. And there are no other four year universities where it’s going to cost that little. Unless you’re talking about me commuting all the way to San Francisco State or CSU East Bay, which would not be feasible with Bay Area traffic.

19

If indeed, commuting to SJ State is your only true safety option, given what your stepfather is now saying he and your mother will pay, it appears that looking for some MORE safeties is the issue. You might want to eliminate some of those non affordable schools and replace them with schools that look good for full tuition merit awards. If going away to school is important, that’s what you need. I don’t whether Alabama will still be offering guaranteed merit, but looking at those schools and schools that come in at a COA of under $20k with room and board included Is advisable. You won’t likely be able to take out a loan just in your name for more than $5500 freshman year. Working part time these days can be problematic.

You can have as Match/slight reaches those schools where the cost will run to where your mother is saying she’d pay AND if there is some probability of some merit money in the works. Your stepfather might compromise in the middle, with you working part time as well, but it’s no sure thing. You do not want to cause strife.

20

@geven Try again to get clarity on your financial situation. Note that you are following your counselor’s advice and working first to determine true safety school options. Provide a spreadsheet/list of costs for each college and information about loan limits. I think you should note that your hard work will allow you to graduate early, saving them $$$.

You are clearly smart and have done your homework! Approach your folks with gratitude and a desire to work as a team.