Impact in 2021 because of Gap Year taken in 2020

How much on an issues do you think the number of 2020 ‘Accepted’ Students taking a GAP-YEAR will be to Fall 2021 Applicants

@College2021start YES, there will likely be an impact for the Class of 2021 due to fewer seats at schools that had more students defer than in years past, but to WHAT degree, no one but the Admissions Office can state for certain i.e. this is unnecessary speculation. If you like a school and your test scores/GPA are within the published ranges, apply, and decide between your schools once decisions release in the Spring. :smile:

For the vast majority of schools, the ones which accept more than 50% of their applicants (the ones attended by 80% of all students attending a 4 year college), it will not make a big difference.

As for the colleges with low acceptance rates, because acceptance rates are so low, the net effect on students who apply will be pretty small.

As an extreme case, Harvard accepts 2,000 of 43,000 applicants. If they are accepting only 1,600, which is 20% fewer, that changes the admissions chances from 4.65% to 3.72%. So, instead of having a 95.35% chance of rejection, an applicants will have a 96.28% chance of rejection. Not a big difference.

As for most other colleges with low acceptance rates, the effects will most likely be felt by RD applicants, since the colleges will not want to reduce the number of legacies accepted, number of athletes accepted, nor the number of students who are most interested in attending.

One thing that people should remember is that, if many students took a year off, that also means that the total number of students at the college has also dropped. While there are a number of first year only classes, most of the classes that first year students take are shared with sophomores. So every students who took a gap year is one sophomore fewer to compete for those shared classes.

This is also true for dorm space, space in dining halls, etc.

A smaller class of 2024 will often mean that the class of 2025 can be larger.

Some of the decrease in size at some universities for the class is 2024 will be used by class of 2023 that are taking a year off.

There are so many factors that will be affecting the fall application season:

-Deferrals and gaps from the 2020/2021 cohort who want to start in the 2021/2022 school year
-Many colleges going test optional means kids who may have not had much of a shot before now have a chance, possibly increasing the number of applications at selective colleges
-Students with small budgets may have to apply to more colleges (cast a wider net) to find the financial aid they need

On the other hand:
-Poor economy, students who absolutely can’t afford any 4-year schools; may increase demand at community colleges
-Pent up demand for studying abroad (if there is such a thing and when it becomes possible again) might mean more spaces on campus
-Some areas/regions reporting smaller overall classes of students coming of college age in coming years (demographic trends)

There is no just way to predict how these trends might play out in the next few years. Therefore, the same old advice still applies: Find and apply to several safeties and matches that you know you can afford and would be happy to attend. Do take your chances at a reach or two or three… but don’t mistake a reach for a match. Be realistic.

If you can afford it, there will be a place for you somewhere. Less than 7% of the world’s population has a college degree. So no matter where you attend, you’re likely to be doing comparatively well in the grand scheme of things.

Thanks all for the info. Your really brought up some points I had never thought about!
I saw the article about the 20-25% Deferral rates for Harvard and that scared the &^^$ out of me for other schools, though I am not really applying to any significant REACH schools.
Want to stay in NJ and speaking with Rutgers/Rowan and a few others this past week, they said they did NOT experience any real increase in Deferral Requests this year.

Again, thanks for the info from everyone! It will be an interesting process going forward, as my HS just went VIRTUAL this year and I hope the vaccine is out soon so I am not still VIRTUAL for the AP Exams in May!
Stay safe everyone!

Good luck!!