<p>Take a look at the book I mentioned. The authors did quite an analysis of early candidates at a number of schools and the conclusion they came to was that applying early had the same effect on admissions as 100 points on the SAT would, on average. </p>
<p>You are right in that the early crowd tends to be stronger as these kids tend to be from the upper/middle socioeconomic crowd, and just to get that app in early shows that these kids are on the ball over the procrastinators who are crouched over their computers on New Year's Eve praying that the online app will send at touch before the ball drops in Time Square. But in the years that I have worked with kids, I have found a much higher accept rate early, particularly for kids with a high academic profile but no hooks. It seems that the adcoms are much more generous at the onset of this process but as the apps come rolling in, the 1000th violinist, the 2000th football captain who is not playing college ball, another community service heart tugging essay starts getting old, and it seems that each year the kids are stronger and stronger academically as well, and someone who looked pretty good in the fall is run of the mill in Jan/Feb. </p>
<p>I am surprised that the counselors are discouraging the double legacies with the high 1400s from applying early. Those are the very kids (with good transcripts as well) that I see getting in early. RD is very, very rough and those kids seem to need some good hooks to get in as the seats left are very limited. The regional rep seemed to encourage these guys to apply early. I would not say we are a top feeder school to Yale, but we get double digits in applicants, and about half the kids get accepted. Many legacies and special categories, however. I do not know anyone who was accepted RD last year that did not fall into a "hook" pool, but several kids did get in early with high academic profiles with so-so ECs. But there are not very many 3.8s at this school either. A 3.4 or 3.5 can get you in the top 10 of the class, and kids here do get into Yale with that gpa from this school. The gpa is unweighted.</p>
<p>I only had one kid apply EA for Yale last year, that I tutored. He did get in with a top academic record and scores, but no real hooks. Several who were close to him in profile did not get in later.</p>