I think there is limited value this early in the process to be applying game theory to a kid’s list.
Once the preferences are secure- and there is a CLEAR “most beloved” first choice, and a close in “I’d be thrilled to go here”, you can twist and turn over ED, ED2, is there an advantage for the unhooked, etc.
But now? The strategizing is just going to muddy the water and make it harder to actually discern what the kid is really looking for.
And it’s not too late for colleges to change their policies (test optional, test “encouraged”, test required) or some other element of the application process. So really too early.
Why Test optional btw? I think next year’s results are likely to show that a kid needs to be absolutely exceptional across the board for the “most rejective” schools for tests not to matter at all. Kid is a musician of Yo-Yo Ma caliber? Sure, don’t bother submitting or taking. Kid is a good student and an OK cellist? There had better be something else outstanding going on for a highly rejective school to admit-- ESPECIALLY in the early round. Why tie up your “ok cellist” slot in November if you are likely to see an outstanding cellist in the regular pool?