I imagine ED similar to Speed Dating: I have what you are looking for and you have what I want, so lets not waste time looking elsewhere.
With that imagery in mind, if someone at the table is batting above their league, the rejection will come very quickly.
Having gone thru this application cycle, my own bias with s24 is that many schools that say they are TO are not really TO. And next year that may be even more so as schools announce going back to testing, many doing so sudden and unexpectedly.
In this current year, there are only a handful of schools that l I can confidently say they are truly TO. But their AO openly say everything else in the package will received more attention to make up that piece of the pie. Therefore an applicant with a B+/A- GPA will have that to hinder their application. IMO, the one way to make up for “low” grade is a super high test score, even for schools who say they are TO.