If he’s interested in W&M, he could look into Richard Bland College as a safety. It’s is a two-year residential college, associated with W&M, with a transfer pathway to W&M’s 4-year programs. https://www.rbc.edu/ And there are all the excellent VA publics that aren’t as competitive as the top three (UVA/W&M/VT) - James Madison, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth - lots of good options.
It’s hard to tell much from individual points on the scatterplots. Those two outliers you saw could have been highly-desired recruited athletes. You can’t tell what strengths may have caused lower stats to be overlooked in a particular case.
What does he want to major in? If a liberal arts college would meet his needs, he can run the Net Price Calculators for some full-need-met and close-to-full-need-met colleges that aren’t in the absolute most competitive tier. These schools will be more holistic than the public U’s, and may find his background interesting and feel he would add a dimension to their class that would otherwise be missing. Plus they’d see the improving trend and have more flexibility to discount the earlier weak grades.
There are a few of these schools that accept particularly high percentages of Early Decision applicants. So if he were to look at, for example, St. Olaf, and feel like he would like it there, and if the NPC showed an affordable out-of-pocket, an ED application might be worth considering.
Dickinson, Denison, Union, Occidental are also full-need-met.
Allegheny, College of Wooster, Earlham, Beloit, Knox, Lawrence, Whitman… all of these meet more than 90% of documented need on average and could be generous (and some have need-blind admissions), so run NPC’s and see if any of them are projected to be affordable for his particular circumstances. Many of these are trying to become more diverse - being from Nepal isn’t a guaranteed “under-represented minority” bump for most schools, on paper, because it’s lumped in with all of the over-represented Asian sub-groups, but some of these schools do advantage Asians and even those that don’t could look favorably on his more unusual background.
He seems to me as if any school that really assesses students holistically as individuals would see his strength and potential. What he should try to do is get apps in by the Early Action deadlines, as much as possible. This puts him in a smaller pool and allows the AO’s to devote more attention to his application. If there are schools he particularly likes that have binding Early Decision, many have two ED cycles (one in November and one in January) so he could choose two ED schools as well as applying to others EA. William & Mary also has both EDI and EDII now (although it’s a pretty big reach).