<p>otoh, any one who is going to qualify for the program must demonstrate need. If your income is greater than 25% of the monthly payment, you are not qualified. So, for those are paying probably won’t be qualified anyway.</p>
<p>The real impact of this is to reduce the number of foreclosed home on the market and thus reduced the inventory and enhance the value of the existing or intented listings. If, 20 largest banks took out 2 million defaulted homes that will creat a demand for existing inventory.</p>
<p>Oh, well, that is a bad news for me as I won’t be able to buy inventory at fire sale prices.</p>
<p>“The guy I talked about that wants to buy homes, fix them up, and sell them…says inventory is drying up fast.”</p>
<p>I tell you, it’s driving me crazy. We have put in 3 cash offers here for condos the last week, two were full price. Lost 2 so far, getting ready to lose the third. Really??</p>
<p>AT Auction.com, in CA, the number of REO in Auction went from 700 to 70 in Mar. to 50+ today. Am not talking about Foreclosure sales, they postphone them left and right.</p>
<p>Not only the number is alerting, but also the quality of the products. In the past I have seen Burlingame, San Anselmo, Newport Beach, Eldorado Hills, Laffayett, Dublin, Fremont, San Francisco…Even many “dumps” like Hayward and San Leandero, now I have not seen any high quality products. Even Tracy and Antioch are no longer. One in Union City probably can get to my “list”, which was around 20~40 long.</p>
<p>Where is the facebook money?
Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Atherton- all over the midpeninsula. Everything in MP is selling right now.</p>
<p>this is also a big factor:
"New tech spenders scoop up firms. Facebook, Groupon and Zynga have been snapping up companies at a record pace, lifting start-up valuations and hopes for technology entrepreneurs looking to cash out, reports the Journal’s Shayndi Raice. "</p>
<p>and a lot of those units- the ones where the owner is “under water” but still making payments, are going to disappear from the shadow market as their loan amounts are reduced. Many bank owned homes are being bought up by REIT’s and investors to turn into rental housing.
so a lot of “shadow inventory” is going to be gone by next year.</p>
<p>“Gone by next year” / “Drying up quickly”: Naw, dude.</p>
<p>"
The second element of the coming storm is that while today’s inventory of homes has indeed declined to a much more manageable level, the shadow inventory of homes remains high. While there are currently around 3 million homes for sale in America, once you factor in the homes that are in serious delinquency (i.e., more than four months past due), homes in the foreclosure process, and homes that banks have seized but not put on the market yet, the housing inventory is closer to 10 million homes. Estimates on this do vary, but even the most recent National Association of Realtors data shows a 35-months supply of homes in Florida, and a 41-months and 65-months supply of homes in New York and New Jersey, respectively. The challenge is that once all these other millions of homes hit the market, they will also add downward pressure to housing prices.</p>
<p>The third thing to consider is that history looks to be anti-recovery right now. It is true, as a number of analysts have pointed out recently, that real housing prices (meaning inflation adjusted) have fallen to their long-term trendline. If you discount the most recent housing bubble as fueled by a host of poor policy choices made in the 1990s (such as homeownership goals, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s attempts at dominating the market and advancing taxpayer guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, and the Community Reinvestment Act of 1995), then the historical trend since World War II would suggest that housing prices should be where they are today. But even if indicators say this should be the bottom, the historical trend has also featured multi-year long “over corrections” after housing bubbles."</p>
<p>The Shadow Inventory has yet to take a full swipe at the housing market. There are yet more smaller bubbles to be had, and to be burst.</p>