College admissions can absolutely be confusing, and tough to predict.
It depends how you define a ‘great’ school, if one uses only rankings that could lead to disappointment. Schools build their classes according to their institutional priorities, and applicants who fit those priorities, and/or demonstrate a good match for the unhooked spots will have a greater chance of acceptance.
You received much good feedback on your other threads that should help you as you gear up to apply to schools for fall 2021.