<p>I was just thinking about the possible reaction of the Chinese if the Japanese decided they needed nuclear weapons. I suspect this, more than anything the US has done or could do, is what is pushing the Chinese government to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.</p>
<p>Any thoughts?</p>
<p>Just part of the democratic process on a global scale.</p>
<p>Huh? 
</p>
<p>This is definitely a big concern. Kudos to the Chinese for bringing NK back to the table without publicity. A re-armed Japan is not a good thing at all. By the way I dont get Itstoomuch’s comment either.</p>
<p>Agreed. When I saw that China cut off fuel oil to North Korea I knew they were worried. Generally, I think the Chinese enjoy having NK make the US pay attention.</p>
<p>Okay, something tells me that I’ll get told that I’m just the pointy-head academe here, but…I have a lot of applicable experience/knowledge regarding this subject.</p>
<p>First of all, if you think that
, then you don’t really like the fact that Japan is already the world’s [url=<a href=“http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/30046.pdf]third[/url”>http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/30046.pdf]third[/url</a>] to [url=<a href=“https://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ja.html]fifth[/url”>https://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ja.html]fifth[/url</a>] largest military spender. At around 1% of the GDP, Japan spends as much as France and the UK. That’s no small pittance! </p>
<p>And considering that Japan has had a modern military since, oh…the 1960s, I’m not really all that worried about a neo-colonial Nippon ripping through Asia again. Despite the occasional whacko getting on NHK and denying Nanking or whatnot, the far right in Japan is very much marginalized to a small subset of the LDP and a few fringe parties. If Abe’s trips to the PRC and ROK are any indication, even the somewhat conservative streak of the LDP realizes that playing hardball with East Asia does not mean “Yasukuni first, diplomacy second.”</p>
<p>[url=<a href=“http://www.asahi.com/politics/update/1102/013.html]So”>http://www.asahi.com/politics/update/1102/013.html]So</a> a few people have said some stupid stuff<a href=“if%20you%20must,%20translate%20it%20with%20Google%20translation%20or%20ask%20me%20for%20a%20translated%20version”>/url</a>. Yeah, it’s annoying. But the reality is that even though some LDPers have said some vague things about “going nuclear,” Abe was very quick to state, once again, that Japan isn’t going that route. Call it lip service if you want, but it’s recognition of the fact that even if Abe wants nukes for Japan, he ain’t gettin’ them. The anti-nuke lobby is more powerful than people know. Going against that sentiment in Japan is political suicide.</p>
<p>And even the LDP knows it.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I disagree. I think that, at least based on what I’ve gleaned off of the faculty here at IR/PS, that the PRC is interested in reigning in the DPRK for one main reason: they’re really ticking off everyone, including the countries with the deepest pockets. The CCP knows that it doesn’t have the most political capital of all the regimes on earth. It also knows that its alliance with the DPRK, commonly viewed as a very troublesome actor in a region that already has enough on its plate, is hurting what political capital it has. </p>
<p>Despite the fact that the party and many a cadre are quick to jump on the Japanese devil when people start getting restless, Japan is really not a huge perceived threat in China. The biggest threats are all internal. That said, the best way to keep the lid on the boiling pot of discontent (malcontent?) is to keep the $$$ flowing in. And the best way to do that is to make sure that the US doesn’t see good reason to push harder for a floating RMB, more tariffs ([url=<a href=“U.S. Senate: 404 Error Page”>U.S. Senate: 404 Error Page]Schumer-Graham[/url</a>], anyone?), and more calls for regulation in various industries.</p>
<p>Keeping the DPRK in line is a nice gesture from a country that wants to look nice. After all, enough bad things out of China, and who knows, someone might just start listening to Richard Gere, et. al. on Tibet.</p>
<p>Actually Ari, I was hoping you’d contribute your perspective.</p>
<p>But I have to think that Nippon is always in the back of the minds of the Chinese. Maybe not currently identified threat, but a potential threat.</p>
<p>parent2noles,</p>
<p>Of course. I think that the Chinese have a rational reason for thinking that way, too. However, I think that the opinions of the average person in the street and the CCP tend to be somewhat divergent. The CCP, through its machinations, has managed to build up a very monstrous Japan that simply does not exist.</p>
<p>For example, Chinese are often told by the People’s Daily that Japanese textbooks are wildly revisionary. What they’re not told, however, is that the vast majority of texts are very clear in spelling out Japanese atrocities in China. However, Japan, unlike Europe, doesn’t make denial a crime. So that means that the idiots get to come out and air out their dung. Let 'em, I say. It makes for some interesting debates in the Asahi Shimbun and on NHK. However, in a country like the PRC, where media is tailored to fit the needs of an increasingly worried and increasingly irrelevant communist party. </p>
<p>And so out comes the Japanese bogeyman, ready to strike fear in the hearts of otherwise malcontent Chinese workers and peasants.</p>
<p>btw…those hyperlinks reflecting Japanese characters are available in [url=<a href=“http://www.asahi.com/english/index.html]English[/url”>http://www.asahi.com/english/index.html]English[/url</a>] from the source. :)</p>
<p>Ah. I don’t think they translate all the articles. I didn’t see the article I linked…but I didn’t really search for it.</p>
<p>Do you foresee Japan ever acquiring nuclear weapons? Were that to happen, how would you see the balance of power in Asia shifting…especially with regard to the US?</p>
<p>I would expect that if Japan were inclined to have nuclear wapons, they could do so any time they wanted - they’re not lacking in technology, scientists, or capital. It seems that the other Asian countries already know this so I’m not sure there’d be much of a power balance shift due to it (because Japan already has at least the capability). </p>
<p>In addition to more and more of the world’s goods coming from China, China is becoming more and more dependent on the world as its marketplace, with the USA and Japan being very significant. China’s burgeoning economy could get derailed if there were instability in the region. I expect this is probably a significant factor in China reigning in the rogue nation of NK. Let’s hope the economic capability will rule rather than nuclear capability.</p>
<p>parent2noles,</p>
<p>I’d say that the odds of Japan going nuclear are very very low. There’s simply no political will to do so. Plus, they already have the presence of nuclear armed American military in the country anyway (which caused quite a stir, mind you!)</p>
<p>UC_dad,</p>
<p>Few people realize that Japan and China are HUGE trading partners. I think that China trades more with Japan than it does China. The CCP, despite it’s many many many many faults, is not that stupid. They know how far they can push the Japanese. They also know that the DPRK was pushing Japan just a smidge too much. It was time to reign them in…and they seem to be at least making a basic attempt to do so.</p>
<p>So there is chaos under Heaven and the situation is excellent? :)</p>
<p>UCLAri:</p>
<p>Yes - also a lot of Japanese companies have manufacturing facilities in China. A lot of those ‘Japanese’ products (and ‘American’ as well) are actually made in China. If Japan pulled the plug somehow on these factories, there’d be a huge economic impact on China. This is in addition to Japan being a large consumer of Chinese-made products.</p>
<p>parent2noles,</p>
<p>Pretty much.</p>
<p>UC_dad,</p>
<p>Pretty much. (Heck, all you have to do is look at all the FDI flowing into the PRC from Japan…and more importantly, greenfield investment.)</p>