Let's be accurate about what is going on in the real estate market...

Parent Cafe
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<p><a href=“http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/business/06leonhardt.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin[/url]”>http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/business/06leonhardt.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>"The truth is that the official numbers on house prices — the last refuge of soothing information about the real estate market on the coasts — are deeply misleading. Depending on which set you look at, you’ll see that prices have either continued to rise, albeit modestly, or have fallen slightly over the last year. But the statistics have a number of flaws, perhaps the biggest being that they are based only on homes that have actually sold. The numbers overlook all those homes that have been languishing on the market for months, getting only offers that their owners have not been willing to accept.</p>

<p>In reality, homes across much of Florida, California and the Northeast are worth a lot less than they were a year ago. The auction in Naples may have exaggerated the downturn in the market there, but not by much. Tom Doyle, a Naples real estate agent, estimated that a typical house there, sold in the normal way, would go for about 20 percent less than it did the previous fall. </p>

<p>In the Boston area, prices have fallen about 10 to 15 percent since the middle of 2005, estimated Chobee Hoy, who owns a real estate brokerage firm in Brookline. Jerome J. Manning, who runs the Massachusetts-based auction company that conducted the Naples sale, told me he thought that values had dropped about 20 percent around Boston. (The government, meanwhile, says the average price rose 1 percent from last summer to this summer. But here’s all you need to know about how well the government tracks the Boston market: the index excludes any mortgage larger than $417,000.)</p>

<p>In September of last year, Ms. Hoy sold a one-bedroom condominium in Brookline for $395,000. She recently sold another apartment of the same size in the same building for $300,000. Since March, her firm has been listing a house in the Fisher Hill neighborhood of Brookline that cost $995,000 when it last sold, in the summer of 2004. Ms. Hoy expects it to sell this time for less than $900,000.</p>

<p>The market in northern Virginia is similar: prices are down 10 to 15%."</p>

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<p>From the NY Times… "Unfortunately, there are also a lot of families that took on huge mortgage debts based on the ephemeral peak values of their properties. In effect, they cashed in on the housing boom without cashing out. As Ed Smith Jr., the chief executive of Plaza Financial Group, a mortgage brokerage firm near San Diego, said, “So many people picked up their homes, turned them upside down and shook them like a piggy bank.”</p>

<p>The withdrawals have been so big that the average household in Boston now has slightly less equity in its home than it did in 2000, according to an analysis by Moody’s Economy.com that took inflation into account. And that analysis used the house prices reported by the National Association of Realtors, which appear to be more accurate than the government’s data right now but are still too rosy. "</p>

<p>We just had the biggest real estate boom in our lifetimes and the result is the average household is worse off. </p>

<p>And that doesn’t even count households that are paying for kids in college.</p>

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<p>Barrons! Calling Barrons, the last bastion of souls still championing the excellent housing market (maybe only in Seattle and Lynchburg though)!</p>

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<p>even in Seattle you are only going to benefit if you sell your house and buy something cheaper
Yes you can still sell a 2 bedroom house for $500,000 K that you paid $200,000 for 15 years ago- but unless you are going to move to Granger Indiana- you are going to pay it back out again for a two bedroom condo.</p>

<p>If you have been very shortsighted, and refinanced your mortgage to take cash out to put on a new roof, buy a car or pay for school tuition,- surprise! you still have to pay it back- and that low monthly payment you were quoted is only covering interest- not the principal :(</p>

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<p>It’s a good thing my parents didnt buy a house in Florida and NJ :)</p>

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<p>70% of single-family home markets are UP. That includes most of California, Washington, Oregon. Condos are soft and I have NEVER recommended condos as they are always the worst off in a downturn except maybe in NYC and SF. BTW both those cities are UP. So too bad for Florida, Boston and Washington DC and a few other places–you enjoyed a nice ride up and can stand a loss unless you bought last year. </p>

<p>I also did not say it was a great year but not the doomsday some were predicting. Only the dumb or the desperate sell into a down market. Money is being made on every sale today. The smart folks are buying these discounted homes.</p>

<p>“Now, Naples is not a typical housing market. House prices nearly tripled in the first half of this decade, and speculators, who are more likely than residents to sell a house in a panic, flooded into the area in recent years. But with that said, Naples is not as unusual as you may think”
–My heart bleeds–they had to give back 20% of the 300% they made for doing nothing–life is harsh></p>

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<p>Prices in most parts of California are not up in the last year.</p>

<p>That’s the point of the article. The official numbers aren’t telling the story.</p>

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<p>The real estate market here in Canada still seems to be booming. I was talking to a friend last week whose spouse is involved with real estate and we were looking at a report on sales in major Canadian cities over the past six months. Toronto had 1100 homes sold during that period for over $1 million and Vancouver had 1400, which is even more amazing because it’s a much smaller city. I have a feeling the crazy prices aren’t going to stop anytime soon.</p>

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<p>Vancouver has some of the most expensive real estate in NA…</p>

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<p>I have NEVER recommended condos as they are always the worst off in a downturn except maybe in NYC and SF.</p>

<p>Too bad that in Seattle, they are tearing down * blocks* of relatively affordable single family homes and putting up condos.
<a href=“http://www.urbnlivn.com/category/seattle-pi/[/url]”>http://www.urbnlivn.com/category/seattle-pi/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>emeraldkity4, which condos do you recommend?</p>

<p><a href=“http://seattle.urbnlivn.com/[/url]”>http://seattle.urbnlivn.com/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>It goes up…it goes down…it goes up…it goes down. This is what real estate in most places has always done but with an overall trend of up. Anyon who expects property to only go up and never have a down-turn in any short term has unrealistic expectations. The fact is that almost all property will go up long-term so it remains a great investment. Just plan to keep any property 3-5 years and you can generally assume the property will have appreciated. If one plans to flip a property in less than 3 years, there’ll be a risk. If one leverages most of the equity to pay for consumables such as cars, RVs, vacations, college education, etc., then they’re at risk of owing more on the property than it’s worth in the short term.</p>

<p>I don’t really know the point of the thread since it’s pretty much status quo for the real estate field. Regardless, real estate remains one of the best and most stable investments one can make (over the long term). People just need to be realistic when they purchase to avoid buying high/selling low and not expect short-term gains.</p>

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<p>There are so many coming on line I would wait as I think a downward adjustment is likely. I want to know who is buying $500K units with under 800sf.
We looked at the Press on First Hill and it has a great location with nice units for the money. We were thinking about getting a weekday place to end the 27 mile commute and walk 10 minutes to work.</p>

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<p>How much have Seattle condos gone up in the last 5 years?</p>

<p>800sf newer construction, used to sell for ??? compared to $500,000 now.</p>

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<p>About $350K. Seattle condos have done well but houses have done BETTER. A $300k house in my hood sells for $500k after only three years.</p>

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<p>That’s not bubble territory. Nothing like Naples.</p>

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<p>well I don’t know how much they have gone up but in my surrounding bluecollar semi industrial neighborhood- one story ramblers that were built in the 1950s have been torn down and in their place 3 story townhouses ( with garage being the ground floor) have been put up starting at $500K</p>

<p>My mom bought a condo a while ago in downtown Bellevue which I suppose has worked out for her- although she originally sold her 5 bedroom ( paid for) house in Bridle trails because she didn’t like th eexpense of having someone care for her yard.
Ironically however, her condo has had recalls on the heating system which the tenants had to pay for, complete re-siding of the whole building ( which the tenants are also having to pay for) and total upgrades of electrical to the new building which they are also paying for, so while her previous landscaping costs might have been $100 a month, now she is paying thousands for something that she already thought was finished.
( she should have listened to me- I said don’t buy anything that hasn’t been up for a few years- but since I am the * girl* she never does)</p>

<p>If I was buying a condo to live in- I still like the Pike PLace Market area-
In Ballard so many condos are going up - I assume when the builders thought they were going to have mass transit- that haven’t even been completed yet, that I think will go for less than expected.</p>

<p>West Seattle is also very attractive and much more accessible than it used to be.</p>

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<p>PPM is a gorgeous area.</p>

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<p>One way the downturn in the real estate market is going negatively affect some homeowners is when they attempt to refinance their mortgages.</p>

<p>For example, lets say you buy a $500k house with 0% down ,Interest only , fixed for first few years then variable rate after mortgage because that was the only way you can afford to make the payments. Now , your rate is floating, rates are higher, home values down. You will have a hard time refinancing into a fixed rate product because your loan maybe higher than the value of your house. Ouch! </p>

<p>This may lead people to sell their homes into a soft market and weakening an even softer market.</p>

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<p>High housing prices are not good for families at the median income ($52k a year). I say let 'em fall.</p>