Lol, I actually agree with you that my kid should get into Richmond. My older one did. I just struggle with the idea that a school with a published acceptance rate of 23% is a likely.
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I consider admit rates because you have to, but that will not tell the whole story. I am glad you figured out that I am betting on your student, because that is how I see it. Safe will be hard for you guys though. It’s like that for a lot of families.
SCU is safe for sure.
Being full pay is a home run at need aware schools. Richmond is actually need blind but then being from CA is a nicety…and not being a business major, is also a good thing.
But it’s why, in my opinion, it’s not a fit.
You may not have heard of schools like Furman or Tulsa but they are actually big regional names.
But you’d be surprised at how many people haven’t heard of schools like Emory or Tufts or Williams or Rice…or how many might think Penn is Penn State, Wash U is U Washington, etc.
Richmond likely isn’t well known - but when people have heard of it, it’s likely related to the Spiders and basketball.
But the people that need to know these schools - know them.
My boss went to U of W Georgia - I never heard of it. And yet he managed a Vanderbilt MBA.
So - I wouldn’t put much credence into not knowing some of the schools mentioned here. You’re normal, not the CC fanatic that many of us are.
I noted Pitt above but now realize it won’t fit into your student’s desired weather/location. Great school, but not for them.
I suggested the University of South Carolina, which has a strong honors program. There is also a big medical center nearby.
Have you visited Richmond?
My niece is full pay and a legacy, she got in after a deferral with lower gpa and scores, they did reach and to confirm that she was full pay before accepting her.
If you like SCU and looking for another likely admit - what about LMU? Gorgeous campus, happy students, across the street from the beach (ok it’s kind of a dangerous street to cross, but it’s not far).
Forgive me, what does LMU stand for? 
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Oh sorry! I am annoyed when people use acronyms I don’t know - sorry to do that!! Loyola Marymount University. 40% acceptance rate overall. Many kids from our school apply to both LMU and SCU.
So I want to start just by noting I don’t think there is anything particularly unreasonable about what this kid is looking for, and I also personally don’t see the problem with striking a couple specific schools that might seem to fit those criteria if it turns out the kid is not excited about them. There are plenty more to consider.
I also agree that it is problematic these days to treat a college like Richmond as a “Likely” even for high stats kids. I do think with a good fit it is maybe a strong Target, but I would leave it at that, meaning still have 2-3 colleges on the list I considered full on Likelies.
Thinking more about this query, I would also like to second checking out Rhodes. I’ve never been, but it is on my short list of campuses I have seen in pictures I would like to see in person some day. Rhodes is a popular pre-med pick in my circles, not least because it has robust programs in a variety of Bio areas, including various of what they call concentrations.
I think trying for an honors college at a school deemed less worthy/less academic would be a potential good fit. Many of those schools have a party hard and work hard ethic and you may be surprised if you actually talked to the kids and saw their full resumes and where they land after graduation.
U of Kentucky? St. Louis U?
Struggling as many others have colder weather.
I don’t think it’s that unusual to struggle with loving your likely schools. A lot of kids do - so you’re not alone. It doesn’t help your likely list, but surprised UNC Chapel Hill wasn’t on the list if UVA is a favorite (but perhaps he/she bleeds Duke blue). As you’re out of state, it’d throw it in the reach category, but we’ve seen full pay families have a disproportionate amount of success which makes me wonder. If they decide Texas is okay, take a look at Rice, another reach but lots of academicky kids there and good access to hospitals for premed ECs
A total shot in the dark, but a family with one kid at Wake and one at Richmond sent their third to Rollins. It may be too small, but definitely warm and pretty campus. I agree that Tulane should be a target, but will probably get pressure to ED to actually make it safe.
University of South Carolina would be a solid safety with a good honors college to find a strong cohort. Best of luck in your search. Any interest in mountain west? Could find some sunshine safe options but would have to deal with the snow.
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I sent you a message. Look for the green thing in the upper right corner of your screen.
Many of my kid’s OOS friends received FA, some significant…but who knows.
In the same general climate-band with UMD, but more of a likely, you could check out U of Delaware. Merit and Honors College seem realistic to hope for. I think UDel strikes the kind of balance you describe, of having an attractive campus, school spirit, and Greek presence that isn’t excessive. They also have a direct-admit nursing major, if your student would still like to have one of those in the mix.
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UNC CH was on the list until we visited. Kid did not like the campus at all. As an OOS candidate it’s a reach, we figured we had enough reaches so it could come off.
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I think UDel is a good safety and your student would likely make honors. The campus is also very pretty.
Given some of the other schools on the list, I am not surprised UNC was removed.
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I will also agree that if Delaware is not too far north, it seems like an excellent fit.
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I also think South Carolina offers some good likely and target schools: College of Charleston, Clemson, U of South Carolina.
Adding Delaware (if the location works) should complete the list.
I anticipate some honors acceptances.
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i know you are not asking for more reaches, but i wonder if you considered Emory? you may have a slightly better shot than Duke and Vandy and it seems to meet most of your other criteria (and good for pre-med EC opportunities since it has a Med School and associated hospital system). Also would you be open to smaller LAC (or LAC-like) schools? Maybe Davidson or Washington & Lee?
Does your student have a major?
I am confused by the BSN to PA path.