To be clear, they do this using OFSTED data - so yes for UK schools only.
1 Like
I do note your point that amongst UK schools there will be bias for the better candidate as they rely on test scores mainly. But in general especially if you consider the US process when it comes to comparing candidates you are comparing apples and oranges. No candidates are exactly alike. Canada being somewhere in between.
If you consider applying to Imperial, LSE, UCL, McGill, UBC, Univ of Toronto, UPenn Early Decision. Assume 10% odds for UK and US schools and 25% odds for Canadian schools, your chances of getting in stand at 70%.
The assumptions are underestimates of acceptance rates. 70% odds are pretty good given these are top 20 universities globally. My guess is the odds are closer to 80%.
Worse case scenario it doesnât work out. No issues. Add in King College London, St Andrewâs, University of Waterloo, McMaster University and 7 other American Universities you are basically guaranteed something very good. 7 other American Universities 5 can have 10% acceptance rate (Cornell, Georgetown, NYU, Carnegie Mellon, Hamilton), 1 with 20% (Wake Forest) and 1 with 40% (Fordham).
You are pretty much guaranteed a very good school.
1 Like
I assume you are aware Scottish universities have 4-year degrees, so itâs a year of extra costs vs the other UK ones. St Andrewâs traditionally likes American students, so it is a good one to have on your list from that perspective. However, as beautiful as the university is, the location is not for everyone, so definitely visit before accepting. So youâre looking at LSE, UCL, Kingâs, St Andrewâs and Imperial for the 5 UK options?
Like twoin18, I donât think youâre calculating the odds correctly, but Iâm not going to debate that further other than again to emphasize you need likely schools on the list. I donât know much about Canadian schools so maybe those are your likelies. Of the others I only see reaches and targets,
5 Likes
Iâd switch out Imperial (itâs going to be more quantitative than what your son seems to be on track for) and UCL (itâs a fantastic, high quality, high research intensity and has multiple campuses with halls of residence all over the place, with the same issue as st LSE wrt living in a foreign capital but a more theoretical course, really wouldnât recommend for American teenagersâŠ) and I would replace them with 2 from Durham, Warwick, Heriot Watt ..?
1 Like
Btw, Iâve just looked up KCL economics requirements for US students, the equivalent to their A-level A*AA requirement is 3 APs at 5, with an ACT or SAT score; the overall scores seem not very onerous but they do require at least 650 for the verbal section of SAT, and I recall you were concerned about your sonâs performance on that section. The alternative route is four 5s and one 4 in 5 APs. You would certainly need to look individually at each universityâs requirements.
1 Like
I see a lot of assumptions here. Youâve mentioned your son is not âtop shelfâ academically. A 70-80% chance of admission at a top 20 school doesnât seem like a realistic scenario.
The advice youâve been given is to find some more likely admits. I hope you take that advice.
6 Likes
Someone who is prestige sensitive would probably put them in that order. My encounter last year with a bunch of Durham undergrads (having a black tie dinner at a posh restaurant on the North York Moors) suggested that Durham hasnât yet shed its reputation as the place for Oxbridge rejectsâŠ
1 Like
Bristol has a good accounting & finance program. Friends have a son currently reading that and is enjoying it.
1 Like
Not going back through 100 posts but my recollection is that OP is not just prestige sensitive but wants a name âknownâ in the US. Most people in the UK will know that Warwick is well known for certain subjects including international relations; a friend of mine who graduated their IR department and has relocated to the US has constantly been annoyed that no one seems to have heard of it.
*on Oxbridge rejects - not to put down the next tier of schools that are excellent, but I think LSE has a number of them too for Econ and similar subjects. Which again speaks to the caliber of students in its application pool.
3 Likes
Indeed. I think there are a few threads like this on CC - 4.0 uw GPA, 12 APs with 9 5s at the time of applying to college, SAT 1550, rejected everywhere except two safe publics. Need advice after rejected/waitlisted from almost every college
No one has a 70% chance at the top schools, even if you spread your applications wide.
4 Likes
Not sure what you are saying here. Do you mean that if a student applies to a bunch of 10-25% schools, their overall chances of getting into one of them would be 70%? It doesnât work like that⊠itâs not like rolling dice. 
For McGill specifically, however, a student can estimate chances by looking at historical cutoffs for each program. For a student with perfect grades and good test scores, depending on the program it can be a very likely admit or even a safety. However, I didnât read through all the 100+ posts in this thread to see if your student fits this profile. A student who doesnât meet historical cutoffs has low chances.
4 Likes
Odds are of getting into at least one. Itâs a simple probability calculation. 1 - probability of being rejected everywhere . Probability of being rejected from a school is 1 - acceptance rate. If you want probability of being rejected everywhere then it is you need to multiply all the probability of rejects. I made a spreadsheet and calculate it. Odds are pretty good and many of them are top 20 schools globally or internationally recognized schools. Of course I have included some safeties and lower ranked IB semi targets.
But, I donât think it is a simple probability calculation.
If there were a formula* to T20 admissions, believe me, someone would have found it before you (and would be making a killing as a college counselor!).
*ETA or a strategy that was guaranteed to work
4 Likes
Bristol would be a terrific choice because the city is vibrant but more manageable for an 18 year old than London. In addition, no TMUA!
Kingâs would be a good mix of prestige and a realistic reach. No TMUA either, AFAIK.
2 Likes
Itâs an estimate with assumptions on probability of accept into any institution. And independence.
If you donât understand the math try it in ChatGPT. My son or daughter is applying to the following colleges. What is the probability of being accepted into at least one.
It will walk you through how it is calculated.
1 Like
This math is wonderful! I have dreamed of being a supermodel for decades, but never thought I stood a chance. But Wilhelmina says it accepts 4% of applicants, and Ford takes 5%, and Elite Model Management takes 3%, and TUARON says it takes 10% and I found a list of ~30 other top agencies worldwide.
I didnât quite understand the math but I told ChatGPT that I was applying to the following agencies and What is the probability of being accepted to at least one, and it gave me 70%.
11 Likes
I think a big part of the problem is your assumptions. For example, you mentioned a 10% acceptance chance at Penn Wharton. The estimated acceptance rate for all applicants there is below 5%. In reality, a ânot top studentâ is closer to a 0% chance than they are to a 5% chance. Sorry, but that is the case.
You need to reset your expectations. My opinion.
6 Likes
There are some questions on what the fifth UK college should be. I think it needs more research. The one I put in based on preliminary research seemed to be an IB target. But I will do my homework and pick the right one. For the list I have odds of getting into at least one were close to 95% and thatâs a pretty good list of schools. Of course my sonâs grades have to hold up and he needs to ace TMUA but I am optimistic.
Correct. The most prestigious school in the US I used early decision odds. I believe the Penn early decision rate is 10% if not more.
The bigger assumption across all schools is your kid meets or exceeds the profile of the average accepted student.
We will try to ensure that happens. It might not but got to do the best that can be done.
An issue with Imperial and LSE (as well as Durham, Warwick, and I think Bath?..) is the TMUA, which for an American would really be accessible to kids who took Calc BC in 11th grade.
Even students in A level Maths find the exam difficult and need to prepare for it specifically and/or may have special lessons for âtop setâ pupils gearing for this exam - and the odds are nil unless one reaches a certain number of correct answers, uncertain even if one is among the top performers in that exam for top performers. In American terms, itâs as if they used Calc BC 5 scorers as their baseline then had a a further exam that cut 90% of them.
Durham and Warwick would be more manageable socially and logistically than anything in London though.
I really canât imagine an 18 year old having to fend for himself in a huge new city, with cultural differences to navigate + a very hands off type of learning with classmates who have all had more in-depth study in the subjects theyâre âreadingâ and already know the style of teaching/learning.
St Andrews is another one where itâs much easier to manage socially and logistically - no subway lines to get to class, a meal plan, lots of social activities, etc.
Heriot-Watt is an easier acceptance with excellent partnerships in industry and less theoretical learning than at UEdinburgh, and Edinburgh itself is easily manageable compared to London.
I will pitch the ESSEC Global BBA - with a 3.7 and several AP scores (all subjects would âcountâ) + applying by Oct 31 increases the odds greatly.
Hereâs another one with a strong reputation
Both would allow for Finance internships in Paris, Singapore, etc. and have a high reputation in Europe. They have few American applicants because theyâre relatively new (* ) and would therefore have an incentive to admit someone with OPâs son credentials provided theyâre maintained.
OP can also look up Skema Global BBA or Emlyon Global BBA.
(* The traditional recruitment route for Business schools in France is 2 years of math-heavy, intensive classes then 3 years of âgrande Ă©coleâ where the top ones are HEC, ESSEC, ESCP, EMLYON).
Because Finance careers are now moving to other European cities, OP can also look at the Netherlands -beside UAmsterdam, Erasmus,Tilburg, Maastricht are all solid and offer programs in English. The issues with logistics&social life remain (smaller than London but different language).
There are also international liberal arts colleges, where they have an interdisciplinary focus coupled with a major and recruit internationally (therefore = community, housing, meal plan, field trips): Roosevelt, Erasmus, Leiden are all good.
Same idea with Ireland: Trinity Dublin, UCD? Ireland is 100% data driven: all applicants are ranked, whoever makes the cut at their #1 choice is in. If they donât, their #2 choiceâs rank is considered, etc, etc, for 10 4-year programs and/or 10 3-year/applied programs.
As @Hockey_Dad already said, Canada is probably where their strategy makes the most sense: less culture shock, more support, a relative student community with fewer logistics considerations, very data-driven admissions.
4 Likes