For the US, calculate as if they’re not independent.
For Canada, as long as he meets the historical cut offs odds are good - if he’s way above the cut offs he’ll hear soon after applying, if he’s around the cutoff he’ll have to wait till April or May.
For the UK, it’ll be dependent on test results - you can only calculate odds if he’s asked to interview after TMUA, and of course not getting a 5 on the calc BC exam rescinds any offer. You can also calculate odds at the non-TMUA programs.
For Ireland, you calculate your points and compare them to the cut offs, then rank the programs from “possibly hitting that number” to “guaranteed to hit well above that number”. Say, if your best score combination added up to 550, you’d rank #1 a program where the cut off was 550 and #10 a program where the cut off was 400. (300 ~ several AP 3s).
However, the requirements for Americans have recently been lowered so that being admitted to Trinity should be easy: the cut offs are 1250 SAT&3.2 GPA, then they will consider GPA, Honors courses, and AP scores of 4-5 in any subject related to the “course” (degree program) although AP Statistics, AP Calc, AP Econ, and an AP history are still favored. This is wild compared to the standards Irish and European applicants must meet .
As a result, he could get away with just applying to Trinity (several possible courses, BESS is excellent for instance) and UCD.
I don’t know what your supposed “Caltech PhD” is in but I sure hope it’s not math. Indeed this assertion makes me question your veracity throughout this whole thread, it’s the sort of error a high school student would make. Firstly the probability of getting in for any particular individual is not equal to the average admission rate and secondly the admissions decisions by colleges are not independent, whether in the US or the U.K., they depend on the strength of the application.
Otherwise the probability of an individual being admitted to every Ivy League school would be so low that it would be extremely unlikely to have ever happened in the entire history of the US. But in fact it happens every year:
Which includes recruited athletes and legacy.
My neighbor’s kid went to Penn a few years ago and they hosted a get-together for local parents of incoming Penn freshmen. At some point someone asked how many of those parents had gone to Penn (legacy), and she said fully half the people in the room raised their hands.
Your probability calculations only work if the applicants are randomly selected. They are not.
^💯 Not only are they not independent events, the selection is not random either.
For Penn in general, you’re very right that the % acceptances during ED should be cut in relation to the number who are athletic recruits and legacies (who MUST apply ED for any admission advantage). For non hooked applicants, the % is closer to the average AFAIK.
But to Wharton in particular, OP’s son starts at a disadvantage - this is particular to Wharton but they consider Cal AB as their baseline; no one is admitted without it unless their school doesn’t offer it (Calc1 is considered “remedial”, everyone is supposed to have a 4 or 5 on the AB exam at the very least). Except that in order to have the best shot, a student from a good school should be on the fastest math track, which this child isn’t - despite being +1 compared to the normal college prep track. IOW, there’s a major mismatch between the parent’s calculation&hope for Wharton and the actual child’s record, which is strong but doesn’t overlap with the profile he’d have to even have a shot.
It’s similar to banking on the MTUA with only part of Calc AB. I don’t see how it can be done. While working on the GCSE problem sets is going to be useful - good review- any time preparing for MTUA before calc is pointless and should be dedicated to more productive pursuits. And without MTUA, no application to LSE, Durham, Warwick.. can even be considered; and then, taking the MTUA isn’t sufficient, one has to score high enough and with the sought-after reasoning to get an interview (and then only about 50% odds of success).
On the other hand, Canada and Ireland would likely yield better results with fewer hoops that are impossible to jump through.
This comment plus the “laughing until the point of tears” emoji you gave my comment about becoming a supermodel has me very annoyed! Are you implying that I won’t be a supermodel after all? I’ll have you know that I DID meet the requirement to apply (minimum height) and that I am contracting with a photographer to take the required headshots as we speak.
The odds of having a high enough score on the MTUA with only half of Calc AB are too low for OP’s son to invest the time it’d take for him to have any shot at all - that time junior year is better spent preparing for the SAT, which is proving difficult for Verbal and where OP’s son having just completed Algebra2, is only now ready to tackle the more difficult questions for Math (but not yet the most difficult questions).
Scoring 1300-1400 on the SAT should be a priority.
That time is also better spent reading, doing ECs of interest, having a job…
However, working on the GCSE math questions/problems would be excellent practice both for review and for stretching.
I estimate the odds this way:
The goal of the TMUA is to distinguish between A* A-Level Maths/Further Maths students (with a bit of leeway for ‘contextualized’ candidates).
A* A-Level students with strong preparation usually reach a combined score of 4-4.5 (* )
A-Level Maths is MUCH more difficult than Calculus AB.
Paper 1 includes math from GCSE to Calculus (BC).
Paper 2 includes logical reasoning+proofs and finding common errors in proofs.
All of that under extreme pressure because there’s very little time to figure out an answer.
As a result, the odds of an A/A- student in Calc AB to reach a 6 are practically nil.
My answer would be different for a kid in Calc BC Jr year + competition math and/or joined AoPS because the school curriculum wasn’t enough. Odds would be closer as what they’d be for the A* A-Level students.
*Test Results – UAT UK
In my opinion, OP would have better odds applying to Trinity Dublin considering the conditions have been lowered for Americans (doesn’t mean the “course” itself will be any easier). It’s got prestige, finance/business connections, is in a more manageable city (with student residences in a “student village” of sorts, for most of them), and no TMUA or similar.
Yes, because they’re used to the US system so include GPA and scores, are 4-year programs so easier adjustment for American students (though not easy by any means), plus logistics and social life are taken care of: they have “catered” halls for, mostly, Americans (ie., a meal plan and dorms vs. the typical set up of apartments around a city), are located in a small town so no logistic headaches like in London, and of course have excellent social clubs and sports.
Stirling, Aberdeen, and Heriot Watt all have advantages along those lines too, though not as obvious.
I still wonder where the OP’s kid is in all of this. Sounds like a lot of summer work, independent work, drilling, etc. And since the kid seems to enjoy the summer “programs”, perhaps hours spent studying calculus is not what he’d planned for himself…
Yes,I think that was asked upthread. The fact that the kid is not clear on what he wants to do as a sophomore is a hardly a surprise, and even if he thinks he knows what he wants do that could change 5 times by the time he graduates. There’s no harm guiding possible options, but planning out courses/summer work on a long shot option that the kid may not even want seems a little over the top, to me anyway,
I know the probability of getting in not equal to the acceptance rate. Clearly if you Cs, Ds and Fs on your transcript your odds of acceptance to MIT will be clearly 0.
It the applicant matches the profile of a typical accept student meaning he has the SAT score and GPA requirements and number of AP classes of a typical accept, then his odds of being accepted could be approximated by the acceptance rate. In fact the acceptance rate would be conservative because at least some applicants are below the typical profile.
So this assumption is conservative. One can question the independence assumption but in the end any probability model will be based on assumptions. This model is pretty reasonable in my opinion.
Do you know what the typical admit is for the UK colleges (compared to the website which has the minimum ?) You can get typical for US from the middle 50s but I’m not sure UK colleges publish that?
There are a lot of families where we live that make their kids do a summer class at high school to get ahead. Algebra 2 and Chenistry is pretty typical.
We have never made our kids do summer school. If he had done Algebra 2 over the summer he would be on target to complete Calculus BC by the end of Junior year.
This year we gave him a choice if he wants to do a few AP courses over the summer like Macroeconomics at an online school or go to Germany and do the language immersion program. He picked the latter so that’s what he is doing.
It’s not going to be all fun though. He is going to be watching videos on AP MacroEconomics, AP Stats and Precalculus during the summer on Khan Academy. Total time 2 hours per day when not on vacation. Doing SAT prep with a tutor once a week for an hour. And spending some time improving his vocabulary.
Three weeks in Germany followed by a week long vacation in Dubai with a stop over in London. Probably a few visits to Canadian colleges.
UK colleges publish the minimum requirement and the average acceptance rate.
The typical minimum requirement for US Citizens for LSE and Imperial is 3.7 GPA and 5 AP classes with 5 on at least 3 and a 4 on at most 2. Calculus BC 5 must be one of the classes and the candidate must have a 5. TMUA score of 6.5.
If you don’t meet the minimum requirement your accept chance is 0%. If you meet the requirement, then acceptance rates vary by program. But based on published data 10% chance of acceptance is conservative.
The minimum requirement for other schools is lower. They may require fewer AP courses or TMUA may be optional.
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