<p>“By carefully selecting my home markets for investments I have not lost a dime from the peak yet.”</p>
<p>Well, I can’t say the same, but I’m doing better than Jeremy Siegel. ;)</p>
<p>Sitting out the rally here. Historically according to my advisor, the pattern is not a V but a W or a series of Ws. I expected a slight rally today but there will still be some dips in the road.</p>
<p>We’re in no position to respond. Ds is in yet another quiet period for his employer, so we can’t take advantage of the small run up. We’re down about 2/3 in company stock and all options are under water. Our former home is finally under contract, and we’ll “only” lose about $200K. Between the house and our investments, we’re back to about 1987 in terms of net worth.</p>
<p>“The leverage we were using led to some phony economic growth, and excessive rising asset prices.”</p>
<p>And it was done in an exponential way.</p>
<p>Exponents really stink on the way down.</p>
<p>“Exponents really stink on the way down.”</p>
<p>Yes they do stink.</p>
<p>“Sitting out the rally here. Historically according to my advisor, the pattern is not a V but a W or a series of Ws. I expected a slight rally today but there will still be some dips in the road.” - nobody knows the future.</p>
<p>Well, one thing we all know, the economy is going to stink in the near future. ;)</p>
<p>And Barrons is going to state that the economy is fundamentally sound even thought the financial system of the country needs a trillion dollar bailout.</p>
<p>[Moody’s</a> cuts Ambac Financial to junk on loss | Markets | Bonds News | Reuters](<a href=“http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0534554920081105]Moody’s”>http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0534554920081105)</p>
<p>[Cisco</a> warns of demand shortfall; earnings flat: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News”>Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News)</p>
<p>“GM’s `Time Is Very Short’ for U.S. Aid, Altman Says (Update3)” </p>
<p>[Bloomberg.com:</a> Exclusive](<a href=“Bloomberg Politics - Bloomberg”>Bloomberg Politics - Bloomberg)</p>
<p>[Wells</a> Fargo to raise $10 billion to fund Wachovia deal: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News”>Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News)</p>
<p>Ran into a friend from Austin today. He said they were laying off 8,000. I then took a look at their stock price and it was in the $12 area. Last time I looked, it was in the $20s. Ouch!</p>
<p>Hmmm. Sounds like Dell.</p>
<p>Oops, forgot the company name. Yup, it’s Dell.</p>
<p>Yeah. Dell has been hammered.</p>
<p>I don’t like to talk about the stock market because nobody knows…</p>
<p>i think these rates speak for themselves…</p>
<p>from wells fargo’s web site…</p>
<p><a href=“https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/[/url]”>https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/</a></p>
<p>as of 11/06/2008 12:21 PM Eastern
Product Interest Rate APR
Conforming1 Loans<br>
40-Year Fixed 7.750% 7.971%
30-Year Fixed 6.125% 6.353%
20-Year Fixed 6.250% 6.554%
15-Year Fixed 5.875% 6.252%
5-Year ARM 7.125% 6.142% </p>
<p>Jumbo Loans – Amounts that exceed conforming loan limits1<br>
30-Year Fixed 9.375% 9.555%
15-Year Fixed 8.750% 9.016%
10-Year ARM 9.125% 8.096%
5-Year ARM 6.875% 5.956% </p>
<p>FHA – loan limits vary by county.<br>
30-Year Fixed 6.500% 7.224%</p>
<p>Our first mortgage was 10.15% so these rates look paltry. Maybe we should just jack up rates get a floor on houses and then start from their. This drip, drip, drip may be worse than just taking our lumps at once.</p>
<p>I wonder if Obama will call for further tax cuts. For everyone. Maybe drop capital gains 5% for both categories.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, maybe your first rate was over 10% like mine was, but home prices were a little cheaper.</p>
<p>That’s the idea. Buy a house when rates are sky-high as prices shouldn’t be. Fed was in the process of wringing out speculative excess. Interest rates way over 10% does that in a hurry.</p>
<p>We went to 20% cash-money market more than 2.5 years ago when the debt market went irrational. Currently trying to get back into the market. Still down about 30% since Jan 1, in a balanced portfolio in all assets. </p>
<p>Investment property that we hold since 1982 was marketable 3 years ago has now has no market. </p>
<p>Interest rates don’t matter much. No one has cash or no one wants to risk cash. With W in power for another 3 months, people will wait to see what Obama’s policy will be. Obama OTOH can not reveal too much on what he wants to do-why help the R’s and W, and he needs to discuss more fully the alternatives by opening the debate. </p>
<p>Federal reserve rates are for the banks (1990-92) not for the consumers and public.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, home prices haven’t dropped enough where i live… otherwise… i would agree</p>
<p>Interest rates do matter. I have a huge amount of cash on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. I know others in the same position. Good daytraders are making a killing in this market. Swing-trading isn’t working that well. I’m running into a lot of people getting sucked in at tops. Reminds me of 2001.</p>
<p>I read that the drop yesterday was due to floor traders upset at part of Obama’s speech. I only saw one news article on that but apparently it was mentioned on one of the financial news stations yesterday. A trader mentioned it to me last night.</p>
<p>I read an interesting case for $INDU 4,000 last night. It was an earnings/valuation based argument and it’s pretty clear that it’s the bear case.</p>
<p>I’m making a little money in a junk-bond fund right now. Looking for good bond opportunities out there.</p>
<p>“I read that the drop yesterday was due to floor traders upset at part of Obama’s speech. I only saw one news article on that but apparently it was mentioned on one of the financial news stations yesterday. A trader mentioned it to me last night.”</p>
<p>This is bs. ;)</p>
<p>I meant interest rates for mortgages. Still much cheaper to rent. </p>
<p>I know that there is money on the sidelines and we are looking to move a 1 year, CD from 1.6% to 6% APR, (our state university CU is opening a new branch near us and is offering a onetime deal with a checking account.) Too bad they limit the amount to $10,000.</p>